Topic: BFL ROI (Read 3526 times)

It's not BFL ROI. It should be LOI = Loss On Investment

what if someone puts their miner costs as their cost basis when calculating their BTC trades in their taxes..  perhaps that person is actually seeking somewhere to write down some losses?   

amen, all these 'better to just buy BTC' crackpots all assume they time the market brilliantly

it's fun though messing with their one track mind 

Now that is engineering. I would like to give a "Great job done" to the KNCMiner guys. 

With current growth rates, it's about every 11 days. Next adjustment in about 5 days to 180M.


Here's an optimistic estimate: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/49a674a026

If it doesn't break even in the next 3-6 months, it never will.

Looks like KNCminer got their machine running on schedule and it's faster than they promised

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFOcI8nK2xI


Kind of makes BFL look like a sick joke.

Could you remind me where I can find out the projected time of the next difficulty adjustment?

Also, can you provide some numbers or point me to a source to support your claim?

Thanks for your input.

If you can take delivery before the next difficulty adjustment, you have a good chance of ROI. Delivery in a month? No chance of profit.

I suppose the only way for that to happen would be if all or most of the 28nm products are delayed considerably or ship at an extremely slow pace.  Unfortunately there is no way for any of us to know how successful each respective company will be in their ASIC endeavor but my money is that we will accelerate growth or at a minimum stay our current course for at least 3-6 months.

A few members have made some good threads estimating the total hashrate planned to be deployed by 2014 (and a bit beyond) based on announcement from various companies.  I'm too lazy to find links but I don't think you'd have to dig too far into Custom Hardware and Mining Speculation to find them.

If you plan to receive the 60GH in a month or so the big question is will KNC complete their deliveries to their first Sept/Oct batch of customers and will Hashfast ship product in a few weeks like they claim.  If both these fail then you might look at a nice return, if KNC gets their act together and Hashfast delivers as promised it might be very rough for you keeping the unit.

Yes,a 60GH'er BEFORE price increase,take it.But it won't last long,3-4 Petahash is coming early next year.............................

I don't expect the hash rate to ever drop, so long as Bitcoin continues to grow. I was talking about the hash rate growth rate dropping, and whether there's some reason to think that may happen soon.

I think in the future the best case scenario for hashrate will be leveling towards flat, I can't imagine a scenario short of a algo change or a major blow to Bitcoin where the hashrate will actually drop in the foreseeable future.  Could be wrong though, also interested in ralree's explanation for his optimistic outlook.

amer provided some useful info and perspective as it relates to a longer term view. However, AFAICT, short term--if the hash growth rate stays the same (very roughly 100%/month) for the next 2-3 months, then this miner will not even approach breaking even in terms of USD. Am I wrong in my calculation? Or is there some reason you expect a significant drop in the hash rate growth rate very soon?

+1.  This is what I meant.  Thanks for the down-to-earth calculation.  Don't let TheGenesisBlock's calculator (which is awesome, btw) trick you into thinking we're going to have a larger (hashrate-wise) network than we will.  Remember - nearly everyone advising you against mining .. is a miner .  I would still take delivery on a $1299 60GH miner.

I've been reading like a madman about all these new ASIC companies from day 1,my bet is on Bitmine ATM.I have insider info too,from 2 sources that currently produce miners 

KNC is going to be a little late,but thier units are overpriced,good hashrates,but cost way more than they will return,same for Bitfury/Cointerra/Hashfast/Fasthash.Forget ASICMINER,overpriced & underpowered in hashrate,until they offer 28nm or something............

All ASIC's will see a price drop by December/Jan............believe it.Wait till then & save up for it.

Oh, & buy only with CreditCard/Paypal.so you get a refund.BTC is great,but trying to get a refund from scammers is impossible,too risky ATM.Sharks are circleing in BTCland 

Take whatever side you want,but BFL will be LATE AGAIN & wrong on power estimates............AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!

Erk,it pains me to say this,but good post 

I actually did look at BFL in January and got my Jala, mined and resold it and made above ROI. However, I am not ignoring the collective horror stories so I am skeptical now. As for my question, I was just trying to translate "I made my money bishes, cya" into a more constructive discussion.


0.2 BTC / day x 30 day/month = 6 BTC per month x 146 USD per BTC = 876 USD per month...

I ordered two BFL Jalapenos back in April, I paid for them with BTC I had mined on a HD 5770 card I literally pulled out of the trash can as it was freezing on Windows, due to a power saver bug in the firmware, so I set it mining on Linux for several weeks back in 2011, then lost interest. The electricity cost was about $15 so the Jalapenos owe me about $7.50 each, that's including shipping.

It will be interesting to see if I can get my $15 back when they eventually arrive.


ATM there is not one BFL product in their range that I would buy, had BFL been any good at production/shipping I would have ordered a lot more, but that opportunity went back in July when it was clear BFL had dropped the ball. BFL have been overpriced for a few months, and now it is clear their terrible power consumption per GH/s  makes them useless for people like me that don't  have access to ultra cheap electricity.

Your math is wrong

Today difficulty = 148819200
Today price = 146$USD

That's 0,2BTC/day. That's 369$USD per month, but it's not even that much 'cause diff will rise in 7 days.

You'd brake even for sure, but I think you'd probably had a lots more if you kept your BTCs rather than buying BFL gear more than a year ago. But you made it... spending time with your family in these days is priceless. Cheers.

It sounds like you made a wise choice to invest in BTC when you did.  You used BFL to acquire those coins which was a separate investment choice and turned out to be sub-optimal in comparison to other potential investment methods.  Why you praise BFL for being profitable when in fact they taxed your acquisition of BTC prior to rising in price is anyone's guess.  In the end it was investing in BTC that made you so much money, BFL was just the acquisition vehicle that held more risk and returned less coins than other avenues available. 

I suppose if the number of BTC lost by purchasing with BFL rather than holding is judged to be a worthy cost for the hashrate they've let you generate to help the network you could praise them for that, but not for being a profitable method of BTC investment.

I'm curious how you consider mining and holding to be a hedge for buying and holding.  In both cases you end up holding BTC so how does one hedge against the other?  If maximum profits are desired shouldn't you just choose the method has you holding the most BTC at the end of the day?

My advice to the OP is to get refund if possible or if stuck with the machine then run it for the next 1-1.5 months and then sell it depending on market conditions for in hand ASIC sales to maximize returns.

I honestly think that if difficulty goes so high that my singles are no longer profitable, the price of BTC will go up to compensate. When I was buying BFL FPGAs people were saying the same thing, but I mined profitably with them until I sent them in for the trade-up.
I would recommend BFL to anyone getting into mining, but don't count chickens before they hatch. I am not expecting to have my Monarchs by February. I expect Moore's law and Murphy's law to show their ugly heads. That does not deter me. Bitcoin mining and BFL have been good to me. I can't predict the future, but I can act on past experience. I will be patient. I will get my gear when I get it. I am pretty sure it will ROI, but there is no guarantee. I can live with that level of risk.
What I most certainly advise against is placing a pre-order with a company that has never delivered a product. That would narrow your choices down to Asicminer, Avalon, and BFL. I have about 50 block erupters that will probably never ROI. I will give them away as Christmas presents. Don't buy those. From what I hear, and I may be wrong, Avalon burned everyone except their first 300 batch 1 customers. That leaves BFL.
For anyone getting in, I would recommend buying and holding Bitcoin until the next parabolic rise, then buy mining equipment from a vendor with an established reputation. If you want to hedge on your BTC holdings, invest a percentage of your BTC into mining equipment.
Let us not forget what this is really all about. Every time someone hooks up a mining rig, the network gets stronger, and therefore more valuable. Bitcoin is the greatest threat to the banks in all history. Why should we spend time away from our families at jobs we hate, only to give more power to the assholes enslaving us. We should be spreading this like fire. Every single person that hates banks should be mining right now.