BFL worth it now? - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

In any case, you can't make money if you don't risk any. So you know what to do...(build a time machine and go back to 2010. Buy 100,000 btc for 100 bucks or so, travel to 2018 and sell them for $100,000,000)

Proof that time travel will forever remain science fiction

I am just amazed that working ASICs are made in China first! Is this also proof that the decline of the West has begun?

opentoe

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Personal text my ass....

Quote from: crazyates on March 10, 2013, 10:43:43 PM

Quote from: opentoe on March 10, 2013, 06:58:20 PM

Quote from: crazyates on March 10, 2013, 04:35:51 PM

Quote from: Frizz23 on March 10, 2013, 05:45:38 AM

Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 01:36:35 AM

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

You were responding to Koolio when you asked that question, not me. I'll just add that you never included all other ASIC miners other then BFL that are out there. Isn't another company making their own and not selling but mining for themselves bringing huge mining power to the network?

crazyates

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Activity: 952

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Quote from: opentoe on March 10, 2013, 06:58:20 PM

Quote from: crazyates on March 10, 2013, 04:35:51 PM

Quote from: Frizz23 on March 10, 2013, 05:45:38 AM

Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 01:36:35 AM

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

You didn't answer my question at all. For a BFL SC Single to break even in 24 months, you would need a difficulty of 400million, or a network of > 3Ph/s. 3000Th/s is 50,000 SC Singles, which at $1300 a pop is over $65 million USD in BFL pre-orders. Really? You think they have that many orders? I don't think BFL has that many pre orders. Hell, their entire batch of 100,000 chips (enough to cover all pre-orders) is only enough for 20% of that.

opentoe

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Personal text my ass....

Quote from: crazyates on March 10, 2013, 04:35:51 PM

Quote from: Frizz23 on March 10, 2013, 05:45:38 AM

Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 01:36:35 AM

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

I don't think 12 months is a difficult number. I'm not talking now, I'm talking when people actually get their BFL units. I've already seen screen shots of Avalon tracking numbers and they are on their way. Avalon's first batch will be in the hands of all their customers obviously before BFL even has a working prototype, so at that point it will probably take a year or so to make $1300 worth of BTC.

crazyates

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Frizz23 on March 10, 2013, 05:45:38 AM

Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 01:36:35 AM

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

A SC Single is $1330USD. At the current MtGox weighted average of $46.9USD/BTC, that's 28.36BTC. You think it'll take 2 straight years to mine 28BTC? You're talking about a difficulty of over 400 million for it to take that long.

Frizz23

hero member

Activity: 1162

Merit: 500

Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 01:36:35 AM

... Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, ...

I agree with you on this one. According to a poll on BFL's website 90% are willing to wait 6-12 month to make ROI*)

But back to the OP:

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

He will not make ROI in 6 month. Nor in 12 month. Maybe in 24 month. But that's very risky, because his unit has to work 24/7 for two years. Image he lives outside the US and has an RMA in those two years (-> send unit back to US, wait, get it repaired, wait, get it shipped again, wait, troubles with custom). Not to mention the warranty that might have expired by then.

So for the TS it is very risky to order now.

------------
*) ROI is wrong in this context, I know. Should be "break even". But since most users use ROI I'll use it too.

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: Syke on March 09, 2013, 10:04:56 PM

Quote from: crazyates on March 09, 2013, 03:01:46 PM

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

What, you don't believe Josh? He's promised to finish shipping all preorders in under 2 months.

http://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/1084-if-i-order-now-when-will-i-get-my-order.html

Quote from: BFL_Josh

The currently estimated shipping time frame if you were to order today is the end of April or Beginning of May.

That's my problem with BFL. It's not that I think they're a scam in the sense that they'll run off with the money, I think they're a scam for constantly lying about the situation. That estimate quoted above is TOTAL BS and never ever should have been released. Just like when Josh trolls here and suggests the bets against BFL shipping dates are "foolish" then those that bet against BFL win. Telling people in mid December they may receive their shipments before the end of the year was outright fraud and this crap is SOP for BFL. They're costing anyone that believes them $$$ with their dishonest business practices.

Syke

legendary

Activity: 3878

Merit: 1193

Quote from: crazyates on March 09, 2013, 03:01:46 PM

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

What, you don't believe Josh? He's promised to finish shipping all preorders in under 2 months.

http://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/1084-if-i-order-now-when-will-i-get-my-order.html

Quote from: BFL_Josh

The currently estimated shipping time frame if you were to order today is the end of April or Beginning of May.

crazyates

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 06:34:57 PM

Quote from: mokahless on March 09, 2013, 05:18:47 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

Let's ask more questions lol...divert more attention from the topic at hand: BFL is full of BS.

Smoothie, I've explained this to you before, over the past several months. I'm not happy with the delays. No one with BFL pre-orders is. Some people have asked for refunds. Some people continue to order from them. I am keeping my orders because I don't think they are a scam. I see the evidence and their track record and the current level of communication coming from them, and I don't think they are going to run away with my money. I "support" them cuz I'm sick of your negativity and whining in every single BFL thread there is on here, when it doesn't even affect you at all.

You: Thinks BFL is a scam.
Me: Thinks BFL will eventually deliver.
You: Calls BFL liars.
Me: Calls you a liar.
You: Trolls BFL forums for fun.
Me: Goes to BFL forums for information (but never posts).
You: Trolls BFL threads on BT.
Me: Stays out of Avalon and other ASIC threads.

Soo.... why are you questioning me again?

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: mokahless on March 09, 2013, 05:18:47 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

Let's ask more questions lol...divert more attention from the topic at hand: BFL is full of BS.

mokahless

sr. member

Activity: 471

Merit: 256

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

Why do you care?

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

How much are they paying you?

How much are their competitors paying you? (disclaimer: not a real accusation; just trying to make a point)

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 03:25:45 PM

How much are you invested in BFL?

How is that any of your business?

smoothie

legendary

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Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: crazyates on March 09, 2013, 03:01:46 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 02:34:26 PM

BFL customers should request a refund.

Why do you insist on every single BFL customer getting a refund? You sound like a broken record, and I can't help but thinking you have some ulterior motive, or hidden agenda.

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 08, 2013, 03:19:04 PM

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day. In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day. And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

Why do you support BFL at every single delay and let down?

How much are they paying you?

How much are you invested in BFL?

crazyates

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 09, 2013, 03:07:54 PM

Kano reported seeing 90 Minirig cases ready to go. That is $2.7M in orders by itself. There are at least 50x (probably 100x) as many single orders out there, which brings us to about $10M in pre-orders. Someone was on here reporting that he wanted to buy $300k in rigs as a new order last week.

Avalon did $1M in sales in 1 day. $47 M isn't a very large number.

Good luck with your investment.

90 cases doesn't mean 90 MR pre-orders. Also, please show me where you can pinpoint the number of SC Single orders, and stop guessing (50x? 100x?).

That $300k order sale never happened, and I don't think most people have that sort of cash to invest.

Avalon did close to $1M in sales in 1 day, but then they stopped accepting orders. It's a totally different scenario, and does nothing to help us out here.

The closest thing I know of is This thread, which is nowhere near complete.

Entropy-uc

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 501

Quote from: crazyates on March 09, 2013, 03:01:46 PM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 08, 2013, 03:19:04 PM

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day. In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 TH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day. And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

Kano reported seeing 90 Minirig cases ready to go. That is $2.7M in orders by itself. There are at least 50x (probably 100x) as many single orders out there, which brings us to about $10M in pre-orders. Someone was on here reporting that he wanted to buy $300k in rigs as a new order last week.

Avalon did $1M in sales in 1 day. $47 M isn't a very large number.

Good luck with your investment.

crazyates

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smoothie on March 09, 2013, 02:34:26 PM

BFL customers should request a refund.

Why do you insist on every single BFL customer getting a refund? You sound like a broken record, and I can't help but thinking you have some ulterior motive, or hidden agenda.

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 08, 2013, 03:19:04 PM

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day. In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day. And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

You're taking some very fancy sounding numbers, and making assumptions, but you're not looking at the whole context before you're jumping to conclusions.

400 SC Singles a day for the next 3 months means about 36,500 SC Singles. At $1300 a pop, you're really telling me that you expect BFL to take $47 Million USD in preorders, AND ship all of those units in the next 3 months? Ya, I don't think so, for either of those 2 accounts.

smoothie

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Quote from: Syke on March 09, 2013, 12:59:31 AM

Quote from: mokahless on March 08, 2013, 04:06:22 PM

Quote from: NEO2012 on March 08, 2013, 10:52:56 AM

indeed bfl nothing but lies 3 weeks delays for a 24 hours process like bunping

How do you know this? Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab.

That's how BFL strings people along with fake schedules.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html#post13172

Quote from: BFL_Josh

It should not take more than 24 hours to bump all our chips and get them to the packaging facility, where it will take another ~24 hours (probably less) to package them

Don't you love the "probably less" thrown in there just to give people hope when there's no way in hell it'll ever happen.

BFL is an utter failure.

BFL customers should request a refund. This game has gone on long enough. 9 months???

insane.

NEO2012

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Activity: 162

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Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 08, 2013, 03:19:04 PM

Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day. In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day. And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

Of course, BFL's track history makes it much more likely that they will struggle to ship 10 units / day. In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving. Grin

i couldnt of said it better if u order today by the time u receive ur unit u will be making 0.01 btc a day
taking years=2-4 to recopup ur investment

Syke

legendary

Activity: 3878

Merit: 1193

Quote from: mokahless on March 08, 2013, 04:06:22 PM

Quote from: NEO2012 on March 08, 2013, 10:52:56 AM

indeed bfl nothing but lies 3 weeks delays for a 24 hours process like bunping

How do you know this? Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab.

That's how BFL strings people along with fake schedules.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html#post13172

Quote from: BFL_Josh

It should not take more than 24 hours to bump all our chips and get them to the packaging facility, where it will take another ~24 hours (probably less) to package them

Don't you love the "probably less" thrown in there just to give people hope when there's no way in hell it'll ever happen.

Surpbitcoin

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: Entropy-uc on March 08, 2013, 03:19:04 PM

Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

.

In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving. Grin

Priceless.. I almost pissed my pants when I read this!

2 thumbs up!

mokahless

sr. member

Activity: 471

Merit: 256

Quote from: NEO2012 on March 08, 2013, 10:52:56 AM

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited already run intro problems

Source? I seem to have missed this news and I've been keeping up to date with his posts and the "unofficial BFL news" twitter feed.

Quote from: NEO2012 on March 08, 2013, 10:52:56 AM

indeed bfl nothing but lies 3 weeks delays for a 24 hours process like bunping

How do you know this? Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab. Admittedly though, he doesn't know much about the process but from where I stand right now, you've not mentioned your experience or research at all. He also did not mention bumping but I find it hard to believe this is a 24 hour process, especially when a fab has multiple customers.

So please, enlighten me on the manufacturing processes and send me a link to the news item I missed.

Topic: BFL worth it now? - page 2. (Read 5300 times)