BFL worth it now? - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Entropy-uc

hero member

Activity: 756

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Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day. In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day. And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

Of course, BFL's track history makes it much more likely that they will struggle to ship 10 units / day. In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving. Grin

enocog

newbie

Activity: 10

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Quote from: NEO2012 on March 08, 2013, 10:52:56 AM

Quote from: hardcore-fs on March 04, 2013, 11:38:43 PM

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

indeed bfl nothing but lies 3 weeks delays for a 24 hours process like bunping

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited already run intro problems

expect another 3 weeks delay

and 3 more steps with and avarage of 3 weeks delay per step

and we only talkin about the orders placed in june2012

if u order now u wont see a fl asic til 2014 for sure

+1 Seems as if they having some serious engineering problems. I wonder if it's hardware, software or both. The thing that seems fishy to me as an engineer is, I design stuff everyday run it through calculations, simulations so on and so forth. When the design is complete and assembled it may require miner tweaking but it all works and there's never delays like these guys have. They are using the BTC community to fund there R&D not nice Angry

NEO2012

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Activity: 162

Merit: 100

Quote from: hardcore-fs on March 04, 2013, 11:38:43 PM

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

indeed bfl nothing but lies 3 weeks delays for a 24 hours process like bunping

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited already run intro problems

expect another 3 weeks delay

and 3 more steps with and avarage of 3 weeks delay per step

and we only talkin about the orders placed in june2012

if u order now u wont see a fl asic til 2014 for sure

NEO2012

full member

Activity: 162

Merit: 100

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

DUDE ULL MAKE UR MONEY BACK

JUST WILL TAKE 2 - 4 YEARS

THATS ALL

NEO2012

full member

Activity: 162

Merit: 100

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

jsut watch the payd trolls who said yes its worth it

and even post a bfl unoficial table of shiipping

after half a year of delays and not having one single jelly even in existence even in there lab for there own testing not shipping or deliveries to speak off

dont waste ur time and money at this stage in the game

squall1066

copper member

Activity: 2310

Merit: 1032

Agreed on the waiting part, I have one early (first batch) unit, I will not part with any more untill I see a working unit (either by me or a trusted user here with pics)

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: The Koolio on March 04, 2013, 11:06:24 PM

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

At this point I think you should wait until they've demonstrated a functional shipping product. Their own chart indicates that they expect current(March) orders to ship in June and as we've seen time a time again BFL estimates are consistently overly optimistic.

CrazyGuy

legendary

Activity: 1973

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Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 01:36:35 AM

Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Well who on earth is actually expecting a 6 day 100% ROI? Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, considering the cost/return of GPUs and FPGAs, and is still completely obtainable wth BFL equipment, even at high difficulties. With a difficulty of 100Million, which is on the high side of your estimate at 700TH/s, you're still looking at less than a 5 month ROI. A network of 1000TH/s and difficulty of 140Million is still a 7 month ROI. What is there to complain about that?

Yes 6-8 months is perfectly acceptable in my opinion, I purchased my fpga singles with that assumption. Current buyers do have a few variables that need to be analyzed beforehand though. BTC value, delivery time, necessity of preorder with impending mass production, and future ASIC prices. All of that said, current BTC value, market trend, and network hashrate estimates appear to point to a safe investment. Looking at our short history, that could all change in a day.

crazyates

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Well who on earth is actually expecting a 6 day 100% ROI? Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, considering the cost/return of GPUs and FPGAs, and is still completely obtainable wth BFL equipment, even at high difficulties. With a difficulty of 100Million, which is on the high side of your estimate at 700TH/s, you're still looking at less than a 5 month ROI. A network of 1000TH/s and difficulty of 140Million is still a 7 month ROI. What is there to complain about that?

cdog

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Activity: 1036

Merit: 500

Quote from: CrazyGuy on March 05, 2013, 12:52:01 AM

It's a tough call, my guess is that current orders will arrive around 2 months after the first orders ship, which may be next week.

I think both those #s are extremely optimistic.

With BFL, always, ALWAYS look at the glass half full...

Beans

hero member

Activity: 518

Merit: 500

It's impossible to say, the best bet is to wait and see what they pay out. Those who invested early with BF will never make back what they would have just holding btc. BF is so far behind now I expect it will take them 7 months to catch up to current orders. I think even that is optimistic. BF seems to be near some kind of time dilation field. When I retire I may move down there, even if my Doctor only gives me 4-6 weeks. That's almost a year in BF time.

CrazyGuy

legendary

Activity: 1973

Merit: 1007

It's a tough call, my guess is that current orders will arrive around 2 months after the first orders ship, which may be next week. The hope is that rising difficulty will go hand in hand with rising BTC price, but that is not a given. Even if it does, it's highly unlikely that BTC value will rise at the same rate. Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

In any case, you can't make money if you don't risk any. So you know what to do...(build a time machine and go back to 2010. Buy 100,000 btc for 100 bucks or so, travel to 2018 and sell them for $100,000,000)

crazyates

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After I start getting my pre-orders, I plan on purchasing more Singles. I consider it worth it, but I'm looking long-term.

hardcore-fs

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

smoothie

legendary

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Yes it isn't worth it.

The Koolio

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Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Minds are like parachutes they work best when open

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

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