BFL's new "highspeed manufacturing" capability?

Frequency

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COINDER

Quote from: scrybe on October 18, 2012, 04:12:40 PM

Quote from: Frequency on October 01, 2012, 04:35:07 PM

Very good questions Wink

They magically produce 3 different types of devices in 1 or 2 months that can magically produce a magically amount of money against a magically low price and were are a lot of proof is magically not given so far ...

Roll Eyes

You are reading too much JK Rowling.

Nope...Tolkien ""Lord of the ASIC tales""

scrybe

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Quote from: Frequency on October 01, 2012, 04:35:07 PM

Very good questions Wink

They magically produce 3 different types of devices in 1 or 2 months that can magically produce a magically amount of money against a magically low price and were are a lot of proof is magically not given so far ...

Roll Eyes

You are reading too much JK Rowling.

SgtSpike

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Quote from: Aseras on October 17, 2012, 01:21:11 PM

which really makes you wonder why in the hell would they bother. They could make all the hardware they are capable of selling in a year in just under a couple weeks production capacity.

No business does such a thing.

You also have to consider labor cost savings. If the machines cost $50,000, and they can do the same work that 10 people @ $20,000/year can do, then it's a good move for the company, even if it does mean they have way more production capacity than they really need.

Aseras

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which really makes you wonder why in the hell would they bother. They could make all the hardware they are capable of selling in a year in just under a couple weeks production capacity.

No business does such a thing.

SgtSpike

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Quote from: senseless on October 17, 2012, 05:45:20 AM

Quote from: SgtSpike on October 03, 2012, 12:07:51 AM

I don't quite get your statement of "those with the biggest pockets will win"

It's quite simple. If the total network hash rate is 200TH/s and you have 1TH/s you will receive roughly 0.5% of all bitcoins generated.

If you have 1x 4.5GH/s unit at 200TH/s network rate would receive 0.00225% of all bitcoins generated.

If people with a large bank book purchase more hardware it can offset those with a smaller amount of hardware if those with less hardware do not purchase more.

Lets say after the network hash rate 10 people decide to purchase 10TH/s. It will raise the difficulty to 300TH/s. If the 1x 4.5GH/s user does not increase their hashing power they will now only be receiving 0.0015% of all bitcoins generated.

..

Bitcoin is a battle of who invests the most money and the length of the ROI period investors are willing to accept. The amount of currency generated is always the same, which is what the investors are battling over (obviously).

Isn't this how ANYTHING in the world works though? Those who make the largest investments receive the largest return. And that is somehow wrong in your mind? Or... what's your point?

Quote from: Gatorhex on October 17, 2012, 10:28:33 AM

Quote

Just how many units per day will their new facility produce?

I posted this a while ago in the Newbie section...

BLF said..

Quote

"if needed, weekends and 24 hour shifts can keep the production line moving to satisfy quick delivery of customer orders. To this end we've purchased an entire SMT assembly suite and hired a capable team to run it. These units are currently being installed in our new facility."

"BFL_Office - 10-05-2012, 09:47 AM
The setup has a conservative capacity of 300 units per 8 hour shift or 900 units in a 24 hour day."

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content.php/120-BFL-Invests-in-Assembly-Equipment

So I pondered, if they can churn them out at 900 per day, why bother with a pre-order? Wink

I certainly wouldn't at this point in the game. The difference between preordering now and ordering after all of the preorders are filled would probably only be a few days worth of production.

Gatorhex

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Quote

Just how many units per day will their new facility produce?

I posted this a while ago in the Newbie section...

BLF said..

Quote

"if needed, weekends and 24 hour shifts can keep the production line moving to satisfy quick delivery of customer orders. To this end we've purchased an entire SMT assembly suite and hired a capable team to run it. These units are currently being installed in our new facility."

"BFL_Office - 10-05-2012, 09:47 AM
The setup has a conservative capacity of 300 units per 8 hour shift or 900 units in a 24 hour day."

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content.php/120-BFL-Invests-in-Assembly-Equipment

So I pondered, if they can churn them out at 900 per day, why bother with a pre-order? Wink

senseless

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Quote from: SgtSpike on October 03, 2012, 12:07:51 AM

I don't quite get your statement of "those with the biggest pockets will win"

It's quite simple. If the total network hash rate is 200TH/s and you have 1TH/s you will receive roughly 0.5% of all bitcoins generated.

If you have 1x 4.5GH/s unit at 200TH/s network rate would receive 0.00225% of all bitcoins generated.

If people with a large bank book purchase more hardware it can offset those with a smaller amount of hardware if those with less hardware do not purchase more.

Lets say after the network hash rate 10 people decide to purchase 10TH/s. It will raise the difficulty to 300TH/s. If the 1x 4.5GH/s user does not increase their hashing power they will now only be receiving 0.0015% of all bitcoins generated.

..

Bitcoin is a battle of who invests the most money and the length of the ROI period investors are willing to accept. The amount of currency generated is always the same, which is what the investors are battling over (obviously).

cncguru

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Mining since difficulty 157,426 !

Well back on topic it looks like we have moved out of speculation and on to posting stock photos of the new oven and pick-n-place machines that they have in another thread started so I will just link to it here.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/butterfly-labs-invests-heavily-in-high-speed-production-equipment-115521

Grin

cncguru

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Here's the one you want reeses

http://gizmodo.com/346802/acabions-750bhp-gtbo-motorcycle-blazes-at-340mph

reeses

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Assholier-than-thou retard magnet

Quote from: cncguru on October 04, 2012, 01:38:30 PM

@reeses

LMAO I love it

But I have my own fuel sipping version!

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/71042493/Acabion_Sunset_02_1920%20(2).jpg

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/71042493/Acabion_Sunset_05_1920%20(2).jpg

Only 300kph but 37mpg LOL!

Grin

Where can I buy? Is there a Hayabusa engine hiding in there?

cncguru

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Activity: 117

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Mining since difficulty 157,426 !

@reeses

LMAO I love it

But I have my own fuel sipping version!

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/71042493/Acabion_Sunset_02_1920%20(2).jpg

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/71042493/Acabion_Sunset_05_1920%20(2).jpg

Only 300kph but 37mpg LOL!

Grin

reeses

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Assholier-than-thou retard magnet

Reliable sources say this is where the highspeed manufacturing will take place.

http://preview.topgear.com/au/photos/bloodhound-ssc-strand

cncguru

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Yes, I meant all those out there that have yet to be introduced to BTC.

Hell, I am a firm believer and I have not pre ordered anything and will not until I can see items shipping. I will buy as many as I need to keep things interesting. I don't care about the windfall profits that the first receivers will get( they deserve it for taking the risk)

I do believe that since asics are very "user friendly" (don't require much skill and no big power bills)the adoption rate could possibly skyrocket but then again maybe not, time will tell.

If I wasn't happily retired I would be very tempted to start an asic company and "do it right" i.e.
Hey people 100GH stand alone device/100W/$1499/ next day delivery available!

And that would be the first "announcement"

Grin

kano

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Quote from: cncguru on October 03, 2012, 09:02:04 AM

...
As far as this market depth and where it will reach, well I am very curious to see how that plays out.
I am reasonably sure that the vast majority of people will not even consider buying an asic until someone has them as at least very close to "off the shelf" items.
...

When you say "the vast majority of people", I presume you are talking about people not already 'into' bitcoin.

People are already throwing money left, right and centre at ASIC for the obvious reason.
It is the next performance step for BTC - just like GPU was back in the CPU days once that avenue opened up.

cncguru

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@ kano
Yes, I was using the term "highspeed manufacturing" very loosely and agree fully that's Tom's level of communication is refreshing and informative.

As far as this market depth and where it will reach, well I am very curious to see how that plays out.
I am reasonably sure that the vast majority of people will not even consider buying an asic until someone has them as at least very close to "off the shelf" items.

And for the ROI/profitability issue people could compare it to parking money in a CD or savings account and looked at that way you are getting way better returns than what's available in the mainstream banking industry.(or a nice little revenue stream for the small players as supplemental income?)

As for the difficulty question, who knows where we will end up and that might just put many people off that are looking for some pie-in-the-sky unrealistic return based on how things have been up until now.

Thanks everyone for your comments!

Grin

SgtSpike

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Quote from: dooferorg on October 02, 2012, 09:43:11 PM

Quote from: cncguru on October 02, 2012, 01:37:45 AM

Also looking back to see forward I wonder just how quickly we will move through the product iterations. Will we see ~18 month cycles like AMD/Nvidia have shown in the graphics cards sector? What will we do with each lesser generation?

I'd say we'll never see that since I really doubt bitcoin mining will ever go 'mainstream' like graphics cards are. The sort of money we're talking about with manufacturing ASICs is peanuts compared to what AMD and NVidia spend on developing hardware. There just isn't the money in the market to warrant big expenditures.

Once everyone and their brother who is actually WANTING to mine bitcoins (and this is a FAR smaller amount than the market for other computer products) has an ASIC, the market will be saturated. The difficulty will go up and the only way to 'be profitable' will be to buy yet more and faster ASICs.

So it becomes an arms race and those with the biggest pockets will 'win'.

Therefore, it'll be like 'keeping up with the Joneses', like I said before.

I don't quite get your statement of "those with the biggest pockets will win"

What is your definition of winning? What is your definition of losing?

I don't really see how people with different levels of investment will be that far from each other in terms of ROI. A guy investing $1M in ASICs might see a 200% ROI, while a guy investing $150 in ASICs might see a 160% ROI. And the guy with $150 loses?

So, enough vague statements - tell me how the little guy will lose in this arms race.

Jack1Rip1BurnIt

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Trust me, these default swaps will limit the risks

I agree with you about having to spend more and more money just to keep up. Right now someone can spend just over $1000 and possibly get some pretty good returns in the end(depending on where you are in line). With this difficulty increase we have coming, I don't see $1000 worth of mining equipment being enough in a year or two. Interesting indeed

dooferorg

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Quote from: cncguru on October 02, 2012, 01:37:45 AM

Also looking back to see forward I wonder just how quickly we will move through the product iterations. Will we see ~18 month cycles like AMD/Nvidia have shown in the graphics cards sector? What will we do with each lesser generation?

I'd say we'll never see that since I really doubt bitcoin mining will ever go 'mainstream' like graphics cards are. The sort of money we're talking about with manufacturing ASICs is peanuts compared to what AMD and NVidia spend on developing hardware. There just isn't the money in the market to warrant big expenditures.

Once everyone and their brother who is actually WANTING to mine bitcoins (and this is a FAR smaller amount than the market for other computer products) has an ASIC, the market will be saturated. The difficulty will go up and the only way to 'be profitable' will be to buy yet more and faster ASICs.

So it becomes an arms race and those with the biggest pockets will 'win'.

Therefore, it'll be like 'keeping up with the Joneses', like I said before.

kano

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Regarding the topic:

I don't really consider 'in-sourcing' production very much related to 'highspeed manufacturing'

Tom, bASIC, provided a whole bunch of info (as he usually does quite openly) about how they are producing their hardware:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1238806

Reading that sounds much more like the topic heading, not BFL Tongue

cncguru

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Also looking back to see forward I wonder just how quickly we will move through the product iterations. Will we see ~18 month cycles like AMD/Nvidia have shown in the graphics cards sector? What will we do with each lesser generation?

And what about future product integration? Seeing as these units will be basically plug-n-play, where will we imbed them in our lives?

How about having the main unit integrated into oh, say, our refrigerators? including, of course, the fast becoming ubiquitous wirelessly connected touch screen interfaces we(you) are running (y)our lives with these days.

But I am seriously wondering just how quickly these magic little money making(Pandoras) boxes will catch on in the general populace.

SO WHEN ARE WE GOING TO BE ABLE TO ORDER AN ASIC MINER AND RECEIVE IT LIKE WE ORDERED IT FROM NEWEGG?

Grin

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