Just re-posting my message on mailing list here:
There is one, and only one scenario that BitcoinXX will win: it is supported by major exchanges, merchants, and investors, and they request miners to support it. When BIP101 is activated, these exchanges will refuse to accept or exchange tokens from the old chain. Miners in the old chain can't sell their newly generated coins and can't pay the electricity bill. They will soon realize that they are mining fool's gold and will be forced to switch to the new chain or sell their ASIC. The old chain will be abandoned and has no hope to revive without a hardfork to decrease the difficulty. The dust will settle in days if not hours.
Will the adoption of BitcoinXX lead by miners? No, it won't. Actually, Chinese miners who control 60% of the network has already said that they would not adopt XX. So they must not be the leader in this revolution. Again, miners need to make sure they could sell their bitcoin in a good price, and that's not possible without support of exchanges and investors.
What about that Not-Bitcoin-XX? The creator of the spoof client may stay anonymous, but the miners cannot. 95% of the blocks come from known entities and they have to be responsible to their actions. And again, they have real money in stake. If bitcoin is destroyed, their ASIC serves at best as very inefficient heaters.
So Bitcoin-XX is basically in a win-all-or-lose-all position. It all relies on one condition: the support of major exchanges, merchants, and investors. Their consensus is what really matters. With their consensus, that could not be a Schism hardfork. Without their consensus, nothing will happen.
I'm working on an unbiased paper for the scaling Bitcoin workshop, so far my research shows some very.....interesting results. Right now it looks like BitcoinXT is not sustainable at all. Long term, well I guess everyone needs to see what my research digs up (because I've more or less just started, but I have been able to draw some conclusions so far).
