Based on the estimate from
bitcoinblockhalf.com, the 2024 halving will be end of April with other estimates calculating it as
beginning of April, even as early as March.
While not getting too bogged down in the timing which is dependant on whether there continues to be hash rate growth (to bring it forward) or not, when do you think the bull market will start?
The last halving was in May 2020 and arguably the bull market started a few months after this, as instead there was consolidation around $9K for several months, whereas in 2016 the bull market more or less started immediately after the July halving, or even arguably around 6 months beforehand as price had already increased over 100% from the lows without a significant correction.
I also remember in 2019 many were anticipating that price would increase in the 6 months leading up to the halving similar to 2016, which started to happen at the beginning of 2020 until the Covid crash occurred, hence instead price took several months to recover, although was slightly higher than it was 6 months prior to halving at around $7K, but not before re-visiting $4K.
I realise when the bull market takes off will also be dependant on price action, for example if there is another black swan event at the start of 2024 then this could result in a delay like in 2020. But otherwise do you generally think the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?
Interested to hear your thoughts...