Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin

lionheart78

legendary

Activity: 2954

Merit: 1153

Additonal explanation about the 4 year cycle by Bob Loukas

The Next 4-Year Cycle Started

Bitcoin 4 Year Journey - The Right HODL Allocation

Quote

The first actionable step in the BTC 4-Year Cycle Strategy is here! Have you taken your position yet? In this video I cover the right allocation and what I am doing.

My position for this strategy is this Public Address:

3BsVyFvjSKDxSxFLW6nWuRqX8eKWeu4FWZ

It is very interesting how can his position regarding the strategy he is discussing will end. So far his position is on the positive from $100k worth of BTC during that time and now it is around $200k. This is kinda educational because he is practically discussing and actually performing the discussed strategy.

2chase

hero member

Activity: 1082

Merit: 502

I think that it is likely that the existence of Bitcoin can fit into the concept of a four-year cycle proposed by the author. I believe that this may well reflect the existing reality and this means that 2019 may be the year of the beginning of the next cycle. At least it looks like the truth.

Harlot

hero member

Activity: 1806

Merit: 672

Considering that the bearish market started right after Bitcoin's all time high which is December we aren't exactly a year past it by now as we are about 4 months behind from your current prediction. 16 months in a bear market just confirms as that the 4 year cycle you are talking about is not true for the most part, although I am willing to test it out as this could just be an extended bear market and we might see BTC go up anytime soon as BTC unlike before is steadily going back up above in a good fashion.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: HeRetiK on March 28, 2019, 05:24:14 AM

Bitmain also heavily bet on Bitcoin Cash so I'm not sure I'd trust their judgement (from a business point of view, regardless of what your stance on blocksize is).

That's definitely true, but the BCash bet was more related to Jihan and his right hand over at Bitmain (which Jihan paid the price for as he got booted from his head position), while their current plan to deploy an insane number of miners seems to be more of a smart business move based on internal consensus, where on top of that, you can't really go wrong with Bitcoin.

Of course, this isn't a guarantee that it will pay off would the market fall down below its current low, but you have to take that risk at the end of the day. China's cheap energy season very likely is an important factor for their plan, so they at least have a financial advantage here.

Pab

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1012

I think that cycle is going to repeat and bitcoin will reach new ATH
Current biggest hurdle is 6k$ if btc will break 6k$ will be one big buy signal
And until that price btc will grow little by little
But 4500k will cause positive impact
I expect first attempt to break 4500$ will be rejected but if btc will defend 4150 than next target will be 5500$ to 6000$

Price will be supported by more institution coming and infrastructure developed

BitHodler

legendary

Activity: 1526

Merit: 1179

Quote from: sandra_x on March 30, 2019, 03:38:13 PM

We are seeing so much interests from institutions ,adopting the block chain technology,

Institutions adopting the blockchain as technology isn't really that bullish for crypto in general because it always concerns private blockchains. This whole blockchain thing is stupid and not even worth the hype it enjoys.

Institutions say yes to blockchain, but are very skeptical about our decentralized crypto currencies, while the innovation lies in the decentralized crypto currencies and not the blockchain itself.

Quote from: sandra_x on March 30, 2019, 03:38:13 PM

also retail is growing significantly( bitcoin transaction counts are near those of the bull market)

That also means saying welcome back to higher fees. More needs to happen in order to prevent the network from clogging up. I hope Schnorr will help free up some block space, but when will it be released? This year? Next year? Huh

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on March 30, 2019, 11:28:43 PM

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase, then the range that many see is 4 years , this does not mean that it should be repeated, because we are currently in the second phase of accumulation of the bitcoin, where we do not know how long it takes to accumulate the bitcoins to prepare to rise in price.

Some claim that it will last the same time, but you have to take into account the high volatility of the market, and that some times may vary, it may not last for 3 or 4 years, it may take less time to find your bullish trend again.

I agree. It could take more time as well. Many are expecting a 2015-like reversal in Q3 or Q4 based on past performance, but I think it's a tossup. This early in an accumulation phase, it's impossible to tell. In fact, it's too early to even call it an accumulation phase since we haven't established a bottom range like 2015 and we certainly haven't broken above it. Everyone is just assuming we will. Mid-2018 had the potential to be an accumulation phase too, but we know now it wasn't.

Wyckoff is the basis for my long term view as well. I like to see some confirmation of an accumulation/distribution schematic before projecting too far into the future. Repeating the 2015 model is possible but we'll probably see some deviation.

pooya87

legendary

Activity: 3472

Merit: 10611

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on March 30, 2019, 11:28:43 PM

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase,

i think you might have zoomed out of the charts too much because you can not call a 500% rise in 2 years an "accumulation"! price started at $200 with lowest at $150 and went up to $900ish by 2017 which is the 500% rise which you call "accumulation" but that was actually part of the bull run. the "accumulation" stage only lasted a couple of months in 2015 where price (similar to now) was stable at $220 to $240 range.

LUCKMCFLY

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 1882

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase, then the range that many see is 4 years , this does not mean that it should be repeated, because we are currently in the second phase of accumulation of the bitcoin, where we do not know how long it takes to accumulate the bitcoins to prepare to rise in price.

Some claim that it will last the same time, but you have to take into account the high volatility of the market, and that some times may vary, it may not last for 3 or 4 years, it may take less time to find your bullish trend again.

sandra_x

member

Activity: 574

Merit: 14

You rightly noted that previous performance is not a guarantee for future performance. But it does sounds reasonable to expect the market to go bullish this year. We are seeing so much interests from institutions ,adopting the block chain technology, also retail is growing significantly( bitcoin transaction counts are near those of the bull market)

ricardobs

hero member

Activity: 1204

Merit: 505

I don't seem to understand what you are trying to talk about but I am assuming that you are talking about the bitcoin halves that happens every 4 years in the bitcoin blockchain that makes the mining reward lesser thereby increasing the hashing difficulty of the coin.

Once we see an halve in the bitcoin network, we are likely to see a growth in the price of the coin because the halves always cause scarcity in coin supply.

kryptqnick

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1402

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: lionheart78 on March 27, 2019, 04:52:44 AM

Quote from: magneto on March 27, 2019, 04:37:35 AM

It's apparent that this time round with the 2020 halving, a bull rally of sorts will most likely occur beforehand. Whether it'll start this year as people price in the event, or how much the markets actually go up as a result of this, we have no idea of knowing for certain,

Definitely agree with you, halving always have a positive effect on Bitcoin price ever since, as what you said, it made Bitcoin mining more scarce. And scarcity somehow affect the price of any items.

Yes, I think these cycles are directly related to halvings which also happen to be around every 4 years. The next halving is expected to happen in a bit more than a year from now, and the prices were seen to grow after them, so it's likely to happen again. At the same time, though, we should not be absolutely certain that this will happen, since mining does not really affect the price directly. This logic was used to justify the point that Bitcoin won't go below $6k, and yet here we are. Halving might lead to more miners leaving the market as the already unprofitable business gets even more unprofitable, you know. Halving might trigger the growth of demand but it's not bound to do that, unfortunately.

FanEagle

legendary

Activity: 2884

Merit: 1117

Quote from: darewaller on March 29, 2019, 07:11:43 AM

2019 is really expected to be a very good year for Bitcoin but I don’t think it is based on trend even if it eventually coincided, the events that occurred in the past that brought about past event has come and gone.

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

I honestly still don’t get why most investors keeps watching out for trend and believing whatever trend that played out in the past will also play same role again, well the market cannot be predicted so we find ourselves in a market where anything can happen but I think the forces behind value decision of Bitcoin and any other cryptocurrency is what you have said, the major determinant of its value will be what people are presently doing with it and the volume of Bitcoin the get engage in daily, what will now determine if we will experience a decline or increase in price is if the volume that is affecting the market is a BUY volume or SELL volume.

pooya87

legendary

Activity: 3472

Merit: 10611

Quote from: beerlover on March 29, 2019, 11:32:53 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on March 27, 2019, 11:54:31 PM

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

The only thing I know for sure is that I don’t see anything major happening until the halving of next year, even the litecoin halving slated for this year will have good effect on the market but not enough to bring the market out of the bear market fully into bull run but might set it on its part, the major halving expected to really turn the market round and make the major bull run is that of bitcoin which will not happen until next year, sure we will see some major signs this year irrespective of whatever everyone believe will be the course but not the complete bull run. So, let us all wait and see.

actually i do believe that the halving is only coinciding with the rise and is not the reason. and it has never been the reason for the rises. that coincidence helps speed up the process though because it brings some hype and that always removes a lot of "fear of manipulation" from the market and people jump in where before they were standing around scared of some FUD or some manipulation dump.
otherwise the real effects of halving are always only seen at least 3 months AFTER the event itself while the rise starts 1-2 months BEFORE the event.

beerlover

legendary

Activity: 3052

Merit: 1188

Quote from: pooya87 on March 27, 2019, 11:54:31 PM

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

The only thing I know for sure is that I don’t see anything major happening until the halving of next year, even the litecoin halving slated for this year will have good effect on the market but not enough to bring the market out of the bear market fully into bull run but might set it on its part, the major halving expected to really turn the market round and make the major bull run is that of bitcoin which will not happen until next year, sure we will see some major signs this year irrespective of whatever everyone believe will be the course but not the complete bull run. So, let us all wait and see.

tomahawk9

hero member

Activity: 2086

Merit: 994

Cats on Mars

Quote from: darewaller on March 29, 2019, 07:11:43 AM

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

Most of things you mentioned won't help the market recover from the bearish season.

Facebook launching their centralized coin will have as much impact on the crypto market as JPM launching their stable coin: zero. VISA adopting crypto? Where did you read this? There's no way that VISA is going to adopt a cryptocurrency when they have the resources and manpower to create their own digital currency, plus they'd rather adopt the blockchain technology. Finally, the hype for the S10 crypto wallet died down, I bet 90% of the people who bought the S10 don't even care about downloading the wallet app.

The Sceptical Chymist

legendary

Activity: 3500

Merit: 6981

Top Crypto Casino

Bitcoin is just over 10 years old, and I think that's not nearly enough time to establish a 4-year pattern.

You know, it's human nature to look for patterns everywhere--and we often think something that looks like it has a pattern actually does, when it's not really the case. That's probably been true ever since we developed frontal lobes, but nowadays people make youtube videos about it and gather followers and likes. So no, I don't think there's a 4-year cycle at play with bitcoin. Could we get a rally at the end of the year? Sure. It isn't a given, though.

But man, I'd love to see it happen. It's been a long time since we've felt that old bitcoin-to-the-moon euphoria.

Slow death

legendary

Activity: 3164

Merit: 1127

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: lionheart78 on March 27, 2019, 04:20:11 AM

What do you think?

I think people do not want to admit that the price is falling because there is not much demand and that this lack of demand is due to the fact that the governments are making a lot of pressure and because the regulations are uncertain. So people are looking for justifications where they can and everything to not accept the sad reality of lack of demand because of the pressure of governments and the uncertainty of regulations. But we must accept reality. Keep bringing past events to say that in the future will be the same thing will not cause the price to increase and I very much doubt that happen the same things of the past

darewaller

hero member

Activity: 2926

Merit: 640

2019 is really expected to be a very good year for Bitcoin but I don’t think it is based on trend even if it eventually coincided, the events that occurred in the past that brought about past event has come and gone.

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

lionheart78

legendary

Activity: 2954

Merit: 1153

Quote from: buwaytress on March 28, 2019, 05:25:09 AM

Historically speaking can mean a lot of things. The only history for a boom after 270 days is the last cycle, or are we also going to ignore all the other cycles? Don't get me wrong, I completely believe in "we've been here before and we'll be here again", but I don't think we can ever accurately predict just how long lies in between the "whens".

Could be 270 days. Could be 270 weeks. Are you prepared for 5 years of waiting? You should be if you're into Bitcoin!

Indeed! Bitcoin trading is like a waiting game. Those who cannot wait often ends up with regret, while those who waited for too long.. well, they just found out that they are at the starting point again.. It is always best to be vigilant about the price movement and the market news, gossips and rumors.. There is no harm in being informed. At the end of the day, there maybe cycles but the amount of time or period it will take is still unsure, though funny that these 2 cycles from 2011 to 2014 and 2015 to 2018, both started at being bullish and ended with correction.

Topic: Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin (Read 628 times)