Topic: Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin - page 2. (Read 628 times)

Historically speaking can mean a lot of things. The only history for a boom after 270 days is the last cycle, or are we also going to ignore all the other cycles? Don't get me wrong, I completely believe in "we've been here before and we'll be here again", but I don't think we can ever accurately predict just how long lies in between the "whens".

Could be 270 days. Could be 270 weeks. Are you prepared for 5 years of waiting? You should be if you're into Bitcoin!

Well ain't that the truth.

I always found it funny how Bitcoin @ USD 19,000,- seemed like a better investment to many people than Bitcoin at its current price point.



Bitmain also heavily bet on Bitcoin Cash so I'm not sure I'd trust their judgement (from a business point of view, regardless of what your stance on blocksize is).

True , nothing is certain in the market, but the possibility is always there.  As stated history is not a definitive indicator on what will happen next but it is so interesting to talk about the probability of this thing occurring again since as you stated those two 4 year cycle gives Bitcoin its ATH, one in 2013, and another one in 2017.  It is also very interesting to see different views of people regarding this cycle, but nonetheless a certain event will back the next possible run of Bitcoin which may lead to its new ATH or the opposite of it.

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

People will always assume in this market, I believed, how many assumed that the price would even go below 5 digits again, when we touch ATH last year? This market is really based on speculation and if they see the price started to rise after the next halving, and guarantee that they will opt to buy in again, pushing the market price again.


Maybe Bitmain knows something that we don't know,  . Probably risking it, what do they have to lose? They have total monopoly of it, and at least a little risk might be worth in the next year or so.

I think purely the speculation and people's assumptions that the block halving will lift the price will make them buy in, especially if the price is trending up for a month or two straight. People buy into that what goes up, and whatever the reason is the price is going up, people link it to the most obviously available event, which again comes down to the block halving.

Bitmain recently stated that it plans to deploy 200,000 miners, which is something they wouldn't consider if they believed the price would stay more or less around the $4000'ish level. It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will explode, but at least these entities put their money where their mouth is with the insane risks they expose themselves to.

I do always have thought to myself that no matter what there would be no such pattern for this kind of market. We have seen on how many years that
Bitcoins price is very unpredictable.We might see some related incidents comparing to traditional market which we can apply to bitcoin but
it doesn't mean that this will correlate or will happen to btc itself.

Funny. Someone could use this opportunity to make a website counting down the this date. And for celebrating we could make an a pizza Gold party. Because this will make Bitcoin one of the biggest market in the world.

no there isn't. we only have a decade of price history. this "4 year cycle" has literally only happened once. that's not a pattern lol. with the 2011 bubble, the bull/bear cycle was much faster and looked nothing like 2013. we have two data points for how post-bubble bear markets resolve and one of them refutes this claim about a 4-year cycle. things could also take much longer now too.

if you're a bull because of the long term price trend, that's reasonable. but expecting things to play out exactly like 2014-2017 because it happened one time before is really dumb.

That's what makes me a bit less optimistic though, namely that Bitcoin's market may already have reached a size where these cycles become either even longer or less pronounced. I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming halving is already priced in, with the next ATH not occurring until the halving of 2024. Crypto never fails to catch one off guard though.

If the cycle repeats, I think we could be looking at a fun number of $222,202.2 on 2/22/2022.

Bitcoin have got back to previous ATH in 2016, so I think 2020 will see the price returning to near 20k.

Thats why this is a good time to buy it. We already know the potential for growth, and a full recovery would bring 5x profits for those buying now.

Thanks 

Yeah agreed on happy people when that happens haha.

+1 Merit for that post thecodebear - I agree with the numbers by year you’ve predicted. There will be a hell of a lot of happy people here if (as expected) we see euphoric prices in 2021/22.

Totally agree. I'm pretty much assuming $7k region for end of this year, and $15k+ end of 2020, with things heating up in 2021 after it eclipses $20k and suddenly millions/tens of millions/hundreds of millions of people realize that bitcoin didn't disappear to zero and its base price is now at that point the peak from 2017 that they thought would never happen again.

2019 - $6-7k
2020 - $15 - 18k or so
2021/2022 - $100k+ at the peak

Whenever someone predicts a full on bull run by year's end I'm like geez these people need to look at this history, this isn't 2011 anymore, bull runs take a couple years to build up now that bitcoin is a decent sized market.

Yes I think a large amount of people who pay attention to bitcoin believe in the halving-related 4 year cycle.

I'd say it is very probably true, and it makes sense logically. Under this hypothesis bitcoin should start moving up this year, 2020 will be upward but not anything crazy (maybe a 3x?), and 2021 will be another boom year.

I think there could be some fluctuation in the 4 year cycle, because its also due to other events, like the boom in spring of 2017 starting once Japan legally accepted bitcoin. Also the duration of the crash and the duration of the bottom doesn't have much to do with the halving cycle, but the crashes have always crashed by simlilar amounts and the past two crashes have been similar in duration 14 months in 2014, 12 months in 2018. The bottom I think will also turn out to be of similar length, though possibly a bit shorter now just because there is so much more awareness of crypto now and a lot more happening in the industry than there was in 2015. The 2015 bottom was ~9 months, currently we're only half way through that time period and it looks like bitcoin MIGHT move off the bottom a decent amount sooner than late summer which would be ~9 months, considering the price is looking very strong over the past 5 weeks hanging out right at the top of the bottom range, though I am certainly not assuming the bull market is about to begin.

Anyway, the halving produces a slow shift in the market every 4 years by decreasing the supply hitting the market, meaning price invariably rises given similar demand. Price steadily moving up means eventually it will get close to the old peak but this time with a slow built steady base price at that old peak, when the peak gets hit people start believing in bitcoin again and the price starts skyrocketing at some point after that, and at some point the FOMO builds to a fever pitch and we see the price shoot up to totally unreasonable levels and it peaks and crashes. This is all seems to be led by the 4 year halving, with industry events/news obviously playing a part as well. I would just say we should expect a very rough 4 year cycle, because there is no reason the bull market has to last two years before peaking, it could last 3 and we might not see another peak until 2022, in which case perhaps the bottom after the next crash would be short lived as the next 2024 halving would happen during the bottoming out phase in that case rather than quite a while after it. Basically I'd say a 4 year cycle seems to be true with some room for a bit shorter or a bit longer.

I don’t think we’ll see any significant price rise until a few months after the halving in 2020. It’s too soon for ‘epic’ pumps right now. You’re probably going to have to wait 18 months until we see real fireworks.

My prediction for the price at the end of 2019 - Between 6k & 7k.

Probably cycle would repeat. We have seen last year totally was down trend of bitcoin. This year almost we can see bitcoin still stable between $3K to $4K. If in case bitcoin cross $5K then we can say bitcoin going to repeat cycle of last four years. Also we can see few positive news about crypto-currency. Although we don't know exactly what is going on but I am thinking positive. But still bitcoin is bear mode, we don't know when it will bull mode. I think we will be clear after few couple of month. Till then we have to wait.

End of the year is very close to halving as well and that is what I am betting my money on. I have been saving bitcoin for close to 6 months now, I have spent a bit of it and cashed out a little to keep on living but at the same time I am keeping as much bitcoin as possible, that is why I think its really possible at the end of this year we can see a rally, maybe a bit earlier or maybe a bit later but we will see it.

I wouldn't be shocked if it happens on October/November or it happens during January/February instead of December but it will certainly happen. Oh do not think that this "rally" would be something huge though, I feel like it will be about $6k-$7k at most and possibly hitting $8k at max but that is about it, I am not expecting another 20k rally at all not this soon.

If I remember it correctly, the bull cycle started or at least the recovery is after 4 months of the bitcoin block halving. So if anyone thinks that immediately the price will be pump, then you are all wrong. It needed several months before the price spike, so we need that to take into consideration. Another thing worth to mentioned is that there are just few sample data that we can rely up, so it's really hard to say if we are going to see a rally before the end of the year in preparation for the next block halving in 2020.