Topic: Bitcoin 50% Down Move Incoming? - page 2. (Read 475 times)
If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.
Could also just go off the 50 day average which has roughly herded the BTC price action downwards quite consistently. We do need to fight and confirm each level of support numerous times, I think it becomes increasingly likely we find a bottom as we explore these prices. I'll stick to what I said in the spring, I think 2019 peak prices is probably very close to where the low is found and it could just be a case of minutes its down there not sure but mostly I think we are in the right area and I'm not that worried after we already sold off this much.
RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now. Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all. history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.
RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now. Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all. history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.
I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.
I do not think so. For 68k to 34k, bitcoin took more than 50 days and for 34k to 17k, it again took more than 5 months of time. But, at the times of bottom, another 50% fall may happen in one or two days of time itself. Yet, not all the news are capable of taking down to 50% fall; so do not need to be worried as market sentiment is changing to positive on the verge of new year.Like other people here, I am also confident about bouncing back of bitcoin market from here after instead of thinking about another round of bearish trend any more. Let's prepare for bullish trend till end of 2025.
I believe we are at the bottom right now and we are going to stay strong here and nothing under 15k is ever possible, doesn't matter if it is 10k or 100 dollars, its all the same, not going to happen.
I was analyzing Bitcoin's RSI on Weekly Timeframe.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.
Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.
If we follow the 2018 chart, of course the final cross-down is at this time before entering the lowest price stage, or closing the down price. If we calculate a 50% drop from the current price, roughly the price of Bitcoin will drop to $8,500.I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.
Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.
This means that it is not the right time to go to the exchange to buy Bitcoins. At a glance, what I can understand is based on the chart and analysis of the price reduction that you conveyed. But many predictions now contradict the chart at that time. Many say that the current Bitcoin price is the lowest price before entering the next bullrun.
If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.
Why would anyone use such a meaningless indicator to try to estimate in which direction the market will move? Until recently, you considered Bankman to be one of the most intelligent people in the world of cryptocurrencies (need I quote you again?), and now you think that Saylor was wrong (and still is) in his investments when it comes to Bitcoin? Maybe he should have invested in NTF, DeFi or various shitcoins, so today he would have solved all his worries because he would have lost all the money he invested...
A smart person who also has money for investments invests for the long term, so what seems wrong to you today will probably turn out to be a very profitable investment in 1-2 years.
If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.
In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the business disclosed a purchase of about 2,395 bitcoins made with cash, at an average price of some $17,871 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
Source https://cryptonews.com/news/michael-saylor-continues-invest-bitcoin-with-428-million-purchase-through-microstrategy.htm
In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the business disclosed a purchase of about 2,395 bitcoins made with cash, at an average price of some $17,871 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
Source https://cryptonews.com/news/michael-saylor-continues-invest-bitcoin-with-428-million-purchase-through-microstrategy.htm
If this issue with Binance becomes a fiasco then there is no doubt Bitcoin will be in a very huge discounted sales again.
If binance crashes, bitcoin is not only down 50% from now, but I think it will drop even more we could see $5k bitcoin or $3k if binance crashes. Of course bitcoin will recover after that but it will take us a very long time to recover. Binance currently dominates and holds the majority of the market share, larger than Mt.gox and FTX combined.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.
Fundamentally, the current sentiment of Bitcoin is far from breaking $20k, unless some big things happen like many giant companies investing in Bitcoin or the US of A approved Bitcoin as legal tender (which is highly unlikely).
At the current market sentiment, I believe the best outcome we have would be a sideway, due to the lingering negative sentiment in the market as we can read on the online news since the fall of Luna, then FTX, and now the mining farms while Binance is still on the hot seat. If this issue with Binance becomes a fiasco then there is no doubt Bitcoin will be in a very huge discounted sales again.
guys here is a summary of gold chart
feb 1992 = 353
feb 1993 = 329
feb 1994 = 381
feb 1995 = 376
feb 1996 = 404
feb 1997 = 347
feb 1998 = 297
feb 1999 = 287
feb 2000 = 300
feb 2001 = 201
feb 2002 = 296
feb 2003 = 358
feb 2004 = 405
feb 2005 = 423
feb 2006 = 554
feb 2007 = 665
feb 2008 = 924
feb 2009 = 941. and pivot to BTC in your dreams
my point is how do you know when we go up look if you grabbed 353,000 in gold in 1992 you would feel terrible with only 201,000 value in 2001 so look above gold pretty much sucked if you got in 1992 and held to 2003. break even with a 12 year hodl and no real peaks that you missed.
None of us know that BTC will have a 4 year flat slot in the 14-18k range were are 4 months in and have 44 months to go.
Gold showed a 1992 to 2003 in a 200-400 slot and basically 353 became 358 if you held that long.
Proof to me that BTC is going to sideways slot 13 to 19k
or proof it is going to leave the slot in the 2023-2026 time frame.
you can't I can't . But it looks sideways for more time right now.
Oh those gold numbers come from here.
https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/gold-price/
feb 1992 = 353
feb 1993 = 329
feb 1994 = 381
feb 1995 = 376
feb 1996 = 404
feb 1997 = 347
feb 1998 = 297
feb 1999 = 287
feb 2000 = 300
feb 2001 = 201
feb 2002 = 296
feb 2003 = 358
feb 2004 = 405
feb 2005 = 423
feb 2006 = 554
feb 2007 = 665
feb 2008 = 924
feb 2009 = 941. and pivot to BTC in your dreams
my point is how do you know when we go up look if you grabbed 353,000 in gold in 1992 you would feel terrible with only 201,000 value in 2001 so look above gold pretty much sucked if you got in 1992 and held to 2003. break even with a 12 year hodl and no real peaks that you missed.
None of us know that BTC will have a 4 year flat slot in the 14-18k range were are 4 months in and have 44 months to go.
Gold showed a 1992 to 2003 in a 200-400 slot and basically 353 became 358 if you held that long.
Proof to me that BTC is going to sideways slot 13 to 19k
or proof it is going to leave the slot in the 2023-2026 time frame.
you can't I can't . But it looks sideways for more time right now.
Oh those gold numbers come from here.
https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/gold-price/
I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
In October I was already said that 8k is the worse case scenario, still, even then, I was thinking that we're late in the crypto winter and we will probably not touch that.
Since the 19k of October the current 16k is not so bad if we think in terms of going down, but I was expecting we will start going up...
So in January we may see 9k you say... and then what? Should I start asking like the newbies about the end of this bear market: are we there yet?
I am not a believer in technical analysis but looking at the world economy and what is going on in the markets, I also predict another crash in 2023. Fed rates are falling, but the recession is closer than ever, even many countries have already into recession, so expectations of a bull run in 2023 are highly unlikely. I don't think bitcoin can drop to 8k, but 10k-12k is possible.
Technical analysis is a decent indicator. However, the problem is people just compare what's happened before, and then expect a similar pattern. When really; the analysis should be looking at the current situation, what happened in the past, what's different now, and the current risk factors. For example, rarely do I see users thinking about how the recession will impact their previous historical cycles, which is quite obvious to me. We aren't going to see the same pattern; since four years ago we didn't have a pandemic, and recession to recover from. The four year cycle is nothing more than a market that's relatively stable because of the lack of massive events that effect global investment. Such as; pandemic, war, and the recession.
I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
The accumulation phase obviously has to last for some time, and those who have knowledge, power and money definitely want to maintain that phase as long as possible because their bags are never full enough.
This is one of the bits I've missed, I guess. Also I've seen signs that the global economy seems to be recovering somewhat, or at least is not going full speed towards the edge.
My calculations were expecting a shorter crypto winter and less stiff bull market.
I've also matched the length of the bear market with the previous one (I know, it's not enough data, clearly), and my calculations said that Q4 2022 should be the end of this crypto winter.
I don't know if the math was wrong or I've also missed this or that on the way, .. it doesn't matter much now anymore...
I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
~snip~
~snip~
I remember that you were quite positive about the end of the year, and honestly it was not clear to me why you were of the opinion that anything positive would happen - even though it was before FTX happened, but even without that I think that the moment is simply unfavorable considering the current circumstances in general and the phase in which Bitcoin is always before the halving.
The accumulation phase obviously has to last for some time, and those who have knowledge, power and money definitely want to maintain that phase as long as possible because their bags are never full enough. It seems to me that the game still has the same rules, and that would mean another 6 months of crypto winter, and then the market will move in the direction that many expect.
I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
I think even if we don't look at the charts and just by seeing how the price moves in 2018-2019 bear market, it seems that we might be for another leg down down this year, or the final capitulation before we can see last rebound in the last quarter of the year. But not that huge recovery that we are looking, sort of saying that the bear market might be finally over. So yeah, maybe at the start of the year, expect the unexpected, or the worst situation of another lower lows for this year.
I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.
I do not think so. For 68k to 34k, bitcoin took more than 50 days and for 34k to 17k, it again took more than 5 months of time. But, at the times of bottom, another 50% fall may happen in one or two days of time itself. Yet, not all the news are capable of taking down to 50% fall; so do not need to be worried as market sentiment is changing to positive on the verge of new year.Like other people here, I am also confident about bouncing back of bitcoin market from here after instead of thinking about another round of bearish trend any more. Let's prepare for bullish trend till end of 2025.
You know what. I am not saying this will happen.
But right now the Sp500 index is trading very similar to 2008. Basically very similar ranges at obviously different prices but similar points in time. We are at the point of where Lehman collapsed and stocks went down massively. So it’s not hard to understand another 50% drop.
However keep in mind. If it were this easy to just look at past charts then everybody would be rich. So DCA just in case. If it crashes then you can average down.
But right now the Sp500 index is trading very similar to 2008. Basically very similar ranges at obviously different prices but similar points in time. We are at the point of where Lehman collapsed and stocks went down massively. So it’s not hard to understand another 50% drop.
However keep in mind. If it were this easy to just look at past charts then everybody would be rich. So DCA just in case. If it crashes then you can average down.
In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time.
So, in last 2 cycles, 50% fall happened at the end of bearish trend? I am also sure that for the current market sentiment, if any negative news happens right now then we can see a bloodbath easily unlike at the beginning of the same bearish trend. Moreover, I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.The good thing is, even after a 50% collapse at the end of bearish market, we bounced back; so I agree that we do not need to worry but we can be glad as we are about to sail on green market in real soon.
far we do able to reach out in speaking about ATH and ATL comparisson.Although not all history or things in the past do significantly that makes on what things could happen in the future.
Yes, we can really make out some patterns but it wont really be that 100% precise for it to be true or something that we could really rely upon.
If you've been making out investment on this market then make yourself that prepared.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.
I know the market is matured now and most times does not follow the chart or history.
There's no strong support nor strong resistant. When I thought btc formed a support at 20k, just FTX fud pulled it down very fast.
Jump to: