Bitcoin 50% Down Move Incoming? - page 3.

tygeade

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Quote from: el kaka22 on December 29, 2022, 07:15:01 AM

In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time.

So, in last 2 cycles, 50% fall happened at the end of bearish trend? I am also sure that for the current market sentiment, if any negative news happens right now then we can see a bloodbath easily unlike at the beginning of the same bearish trend. Moreover, I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.

The good thing is, even after a 50% collapse at the end of bearish market, we bounced back; so I agree that we do not need to worry but we can be glad as we are about to sail on green market in real soon.

Lucius

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Quote from: davis196 on December 29, 2022, 06:28:48 AM

The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.

Let's say that the situation is not very good, but do you think that it is so bad that the price will not recover significantly for at least another 2 years? Does that mean that for you the halving that will happen in the first half of 2024 will have absolutely no effect?

I think that 2023 will still bring some positive change, especially if inflation is stopped and if the EU and the US successfully survive this winter. This would mean that ordinary people will have more money to invest, and they are the ones who need to start the market at some point.

50% crash can always happen, but not because something like that happened in the past, but because of some new extremely bad news.

el kaka22

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If you keep spotting on, you can find lots of similar patterns between 2018 and 2014 as well. But, the bulls came to action at different times which may happen for 2022 bearish trend as well. In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time. Overall downfall from respective ATH was around 80% and unfortunately we are already trading into that zone hence I am not expecting another 50% downfall from here before bulls get into action.

Like elliot wave theory, bitcoin is suffering up to 80% downfall in its each cycle from the ATH. So, the bottom for current cycle is around $15k with give or take $2k hence we can assume that we had passed the bottom already. This means, we do not need to be worried about another pullback from here.

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Quote from: davis196 on December 29, 2022, 06:28:48 AM

I don't want to compare the current situation on the Bitcoin market with the 2018-2019 market. In 2018-2019, the bearish market lasted several months and the price started growing from 4K to 8-10K USD during the spring of 2019. I don't expect a massive price growth in the spring of 2023. The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.

I am not a believer in technical analysis but looking at the world economy and what is going on in the markets, I also predict another crash in 2023. Fed rates are falling, but the recession is closer than ever, even many countries have already into recession, so expectations of a bull run in 2023 are highly unlikely. I don't think bitcoin can drop to 8k, but 10k-12k is possible.

Honestly, not only big investors but even myself can say that bitcoin has never been a safe haven or a safe haven in times of crisis or inflation. Bitcoin has yet to reach that level, it needs more time to do so.

davis196

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I don't want to compare the current situation on the Bitcoin market with the 2018-2019 market. In 2018-2019, the bearish market lasted several months and the price started growing from 4K to 8-10K USD during the spring of 2019. I don't expect a massive price growth in the spring of 2023. The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.

dansus021

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sorry little bit out of topic I think your RSI crossing average indicator can give a huge profit when it comes to weekly chart

buwaytress

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While I don't think that's likely (I've had my fair share of crosses golden and death... and more!), have to say also we haven't had a flash crash happen -- something Bitcoin's particularly susceptible to in bear markets. It doesn't usually happen within a year of ATH, though, then again, this cycle's keen on chucking away the wisdom of past cycles.

Expect more down crosses first before that flash crash -- and then a powerful rebound. That's what I'm gritting my teeth for, but not just quite so soon as the week of Bitcoin's "birthday"...

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: BITCOIN4X on December 27, 2022, 10:58:52 AM

Quote from: ImThour on December 27, 2022, 10:39:24 AM

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.

LMAO which support are you talking about? We already broke 200 Moving Average which was a support for past two cycles.

BITCOIN4X

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Quote from: ImThour on December 27, 2022, 10:39:24 AM

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.

So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

I was analyzing Bitcoin's RSI on Weekly Timeframe.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.

Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.

In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.

It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.

Topic: Bitcoin 50% Down Move Incoming? - page 3. (Read 531 times)