500 is unlikely in the near future. However nobody (except maybe a few key players) has a clue at where the bottom is because too many factors are at play that are not that well known. One of them being the running cost of mining companies. They are powerful actors and would be likely to react to price coming to close to a non profit zone (if you want an idea of the cost of producing one Btc you can look at
https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-much-does-it-cost-mine-bitcoin-around-world/, but it will only give you a very rough estimate. Bottom line is at 6k, people are still making money, at 4K, it's unlikely (you have to add the cost of manpower, taxes, equipment, etc ..), unless everybody moves to Venezuela or Bangladesh, but that's a risky business decision to make (and infrastructures just are not there anyway). The other thing is that cryptos are not in bubble, their movement are connected to what happens in the rest of the world. If you have a serious fall in price of stocks (could happen), nobody knows how big holders (who are likely to have money in stocks as well) would react. Temptation would be strong to get out of bitcoin to take advantage of a strong dip in stocks or cover losses. Every market has a bottom, it does not mean to say that you can have an idea of where it lies, specially in the case of cryptos where the price of a lot of tokens or coins is mostly based on speculation (they will be big one day so I am buying now even if all they have to show is a half finished roadmap and a website).
If you decide to stay in the game or enter it means that you think that cryptos (bitcoins but not only) will eventually be widely used and that it will drive the price up, knowing that as long as it is not the case the prices can fluctuate a lot (and that means possibly going very low indeed), and knowing too that blockchain will be a major industry but that it does not necessary mean that bitcoin holders (or holders of other cryptos we know now) are going to be the big winners. In the end, it's a bet based on the way you evaluate the odds and guessing the bottom line of a downtrend in crypto is not that different from trying to come up with the name of the team that will win the World Cup.