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Topic: bitcoin bear commentary, what happens if bitcoin breaks $8? (Read 4062 times)

legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
But since nobody (besides you? Smiley) knows where the bottom is, judging by your logic everybody would start buying once the price moves somewhat up, creating an avalanche effect (rally).

I think, short term we may fall even further but I am not selling ATM, too risky. The breakout can start any week now. If the price falls to 2-ish region, I'm doubling my position, sending more money in Smiley

Here's something to think about: this is a graph of bitcoin money volatility, how much old money moved around. Obviously, the activity is not slowing down. Something is cooking. http://banana.mine.nu/daysdest.html
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
If bitcoin goes back to $8, everyone will be all "wow price is up, good time to unload coins for a profit" and selling, selling, selling till it's down to $3 again.
This would likely happen! Though, if it got there, hopefully people would settle down and wait, to see if it'll keep going! By then, it'll tank because of some dumbass dumping 10k to the highest bidder!


After the crash from $30, people are waiting for it to hit $1-2 so it can finally stabilize before they'll buy coins and then they will be wary.  They do want to invest, but don't want to buy coins till it has finally hit bottom so they won't lose 90% of their money.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
If bitcoin goes back to $8, everyone will be all "wow price is up, good time to unload coins for a profit" and selling, selling, selling till it's down to $3 again.
This would likely happen! Though, if it got there, hopefully people would settle down and wait, to see if it'll keep going! By then, it'll tank because of some dumbass dumping 10k to the highest bidder!
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
If bitcoin goes back to $8, everyone will be all "wow price is up, good time to unload coins for a profit" and selling, selling, selling till it's down to $3 again.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
I'm in a special position here because I have twice as much BTC now as I bought but they are worth twice as few USDs as I invested. So help me decide, am I losing or not? Smiley

Sure, there is some unrealized loss but I'm still bullish on BTC, playing quick sell/buyback with the falling market, and I could not care less if the total value of that risky investment in USD is down - it's too short term to even worry. I'm more interested in generating more BTC on volatility and what the price will be in several years, daily fluctuations are just noise.

^This^
I have twice the BTC at half the $/BTC + cash in Gox! So, I'm fine with the risk!
Trading on noise can be futile, but I've been doing pretty well!
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
I'm in a special position here because I have twice as much BTC now as I bought but they are worth twice as few USDs as I invested. So help me decide, am I losing or not? Smiley

Sure, there is some unrealized loss but I'm still bullish on BTC, playing quick sell/buyback with the falling market, and I could not care less if the total value of that risky investment in USD is down - it's too short term to even worry. I'm more interested in generating more BTC on volatility and what the price will be in several years, daily fluctuations are just noise.
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.

Oh don't worry... If you're not planning on getting in, I'll be laughing soon enough.

I have no doubt that some people are keen to talk the price of bitcoins down because they're jealous of missing out on bitcoins at 50c each.  But many other people are trying to talk the price up for their own gain.  For example, Jixtreme claimed to have bought bitcoins at $9.80 in late August.  It's not pleasant to have an investment fall 50% in less than a month, but that's the risk one takes.  Any comments along the lines of 'get in now or miss out!' or similar have to be seen in light of how much money the poster has lost on the falling price so far.
full member
Activity: 121
Merit: 100
Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.

Oh don't worry... If you're not planning on getting in, I'll be laughing soon enough.
legendary
Activity: 1284
Merit: 1001
The end is in sight.
If you believed that, you wouldn't be wasting your time on these forums.
Getting a good laugh is never a waste of time.
full member
Activity: 121
Merit: 100
The end is in sight.

If you believed that, you wouldn't be wasting your time on these forums.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002


Bitcoin/USD, last 6 months. Speculative bubble, bubble pops, long slow slide.

Bitcoin's behavior isn't that complicated. The 30 day moving average has smoothly declined $4 a month for the last 3 months. (The brown line is a 30 day trailing moving average, so shift it 15 days to the left to line it up with the data.) The "rallies" and "crashes" in the last 3 months are short-term noise. After each "crash" there's a recovery, but each top is lower than the last.

The end is in sight.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
I guess we have our answer as to 'what happens to bitcoin breaking $8'.  It's pretty much nothing.  The miners are still there and the hashing rate has surprisingly hardly decreased.  Maybe they're holding on again until they can sell closer to $10, but that creates a huge overhang of bitcoins to sell into a struggling market.  For the foreseeable future it appears that anything $10+ is long gone.

Bitcoins have now twice slumped below $5 and only trading activity due to hacked accounts lifted that briefly. 

More continued slow pain for the longs, yup.  Neither $8 nor $6.58 were special at all.  Looking like $5 is no big deal either.

I project deepbit being only 10% off all time highs to 90% of the community being short term bullish.  That... may not end so well for most once we get through the denial post-bubble phase and into the panic phase.
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
I guess we have our answer as to 'what happens to bitcoin breaking $8'.  It's pretty much nothing.  The miners are still there and the hashing rate has surprisingly hardly decreased.  Maybe they're holding on again until they can sell closer to $10, but that creates a huge overhang of bitcoins to sell into a struggling market.  For the foreseeable future it appears that anything $10+ is long gone.

Bitcoins have now twice slumped below $5 and only trading activity due to hacked accounts lifted that briefly. 
jr. member
Activity: 81
Merit: 9
Bitcoin miners are quite wealthy.  Show me a poor person who can spend thousands of dollars on computer hardware to mine bitcoins.  *crickets*

If anyone is living pay cheque to pay cheque while mining bitcoins, they really need to have a serious look at their finances.
The average bitcoin miner is living hand to mouth?  Really?  REALLY?

Fact is, most everyone educated enough to analyze bitcoins and enough disposable income join the community is not hurting for cash.   A few tens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars plus or minus a month is likely undetectable noise to most bitcoin enthusiasts.

We're far more likely driven by ego, entertainment value, etc etc than a $40 power bill.  Which for me, at least, does not come on the 1st of the month.
I never said that anyone involved was living paycheck to paycheck and you seem to be missing the main thrust of my analysis, the original dive was spurred by people getting out of BTC for real-world expenses.  This is what spurred on a panic sell-off.  When moving a $1000 USD in or out can actually, and noticeably move the market price, then when collectively all the bitcoin miners pull out their $5 million USD power bill, it messes with the market, big time.  Even if only 1% thought "hmm... I wonder if I could pay my power bill with all these silly bitcoins I've been mining"  That's still half the current market depth.  I'm using good old fashion micro-economics to examine what's going on.
sr. member
Activity: 312
Merit: 250
Have you ever traded shares?  All markets behave the same way with so-called manipulated fake bid walls.  Bids are placed by market participants and if the price of a share is collapsing the bids are retracted in anticipation of much lower prices very soon.  It would be silly and downright stupid to leave high bids that get gobbled in a falling market when the anticipated price is expected to be much lower. 

It depends on the time frame.  If the prices fall slowly then I move my bids.  But I put in bids in case the market moves fast.  Bitcoin prices are moving down at a steady rate.  Most quick plummets recover to 50% of the previous value, at lest that is what I perceive.  Although, I am talking hourly market moves.  I can't imagine bids/asks to have any meaning after about an hour.
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

Have you ever traded shares?  All markets behave the same way with so-called manipulated fake bid walls.  Bids are placed by market participants and if the price of a share is collapsing the bids are retracted in anticipation of much lower prices very soon.  It would be silly and downright stupid to leave high bids that get gobbled in a falling market when the anticipated price is expected to be much lower.  I don't think there is a trading rule that bids, once placed, must be left and never changed.

Bitcoins have lost 30% of their value in the last month.  The market is not being manipulated.  It's a clear sign that bitcoins, right now, have very few actual uses apart from speculation.  If the speculators leave expect bitcoins to be sub $5 very soon.   If wealthy speculators take a bath on bitcoins then so be it (as long as they don't ask for a bailout like Wall Street does, year after year).  It concerns me however that unsophisticated and unexperienced traders are going to lose their shirts over bitcoins.
legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.

Bitcoin miners are quite wealthy.  Show me a poor person who can spend thousands of dollars on computer hardware to mine bitcoins.  *crickets*

If anyone is living pay cheque to pay cheque while mining bitcoins, they really need to have a serious look at their finances.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
the lower the price goes the faster it will fall.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1001
I might buy back in @ $2

full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.

The average bitcoin miner is living hand to mouth?  Really?  REALLY?

Fact is, most everyone educated enough to analyze bitcoins and enough disposable income join the community is not hurting for cash.   A few tens, hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars plus or minus a month is likely undetectable noise to most bitcoin enthusiasts.

We're far more likely driven by ego, entertainment value, etc etc than a $40 power bill.  Which for me, at least, does not come on the 1st of the month.

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