Topic: bitcoin bear commentary, what happens if bitcoin breaks $8? - page 2. (Read 4066 times)

Its the beginning of the month, people's power bills are coming due, and its a three day weekend, and people what to have some steaks to through on the grill.  I expect to see a rally towards the end of the month when everyone thinks that we've hit the bottom and it will briefly spike back up near $8, followed by another dive next month.  I expect bitcoin to be trading at or lower than $5 by year's end.

Would you say that your methods are doing as equally poor the last 2-3 weeks also? I am looking over your twitter feed
and I see this:

"Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Break above 11$ opens up potential to 16-17$ as inverted head and shoulder pattern target.
19 Aug"

That was the day we had the peak after the fall to around $6 around Aug 7-8th. So it appears your call on that day was not very accurate.
The price steadily eroded until we hit Aug 25-26th where it dropped more significantly.

That is when you post this:

"BitcoinAnalyst S3052  
Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Market Analysis: Break of the Bitcoin price below 10 and 10.5 $ is bearish. blog.bitcoinwatch.com
26 Aug"

From there you have several twitter posts trying to call a bottom. Your range is so wide open that eventually you will be right.

On your other website you made a call on Aug 2nd. This was after most everyone realized the price was due for a drop again.

And today you have a post that basically, once again, hedges your call like so:

"Prices can (but don't have to) fall into the 5 $ area and possibly even lower."

I am really confused how, in the last few weeks, you seem to be doing any better then the average poster around here based
on your public writings. No where do I see a recommendation at what point you suppose people should buy and saying bitcoin
will not be in a rally mode until it hits 12 seems odd. By that time all the easy money would have been made. Are you going to
wait until the price is back above 8.50 before posting the bottom has been reached and one of your several calls was accurate?

Sorry for being the devil's advocate here but I felt the need to be an ass.

Well it did work in the beginning...

Forget about the order book for anything longer term than minutes... and even that does not tell you a lot.

Experienced traders and those using bots know excatly that there are some less experienced out there who get caught in the belief that they know the direction when just looking at the order book.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. And only using the order book would almost be free...

Yup.  Often the huge bid walls go up whenever someone needs to sell.  At least so imply the various accumulation/distribution stochastics.  Look at the Chaikin money flow over the past 30 days -- it's an unending sellfest.

That said it's been several red days in a row.  We're overdue for a dead cat bounce.

Plenty of people would love the ability to short bitcoins but probably like me feel the odds of actually being able to assign a put on bitoptions is nil.  I felt very comfortable selling every bitcoin I had at 10.9 over the past few weeks, so it's not a far cry from there to short some, hedged by mining capacity.

Hell, if that was possible at $30 I'd have about 10-100x the mining hardware I have now, all paid for and then some. =)

Go to sleep seeing huge bid walls around $7.50

Wake up and see them all taken out and coins below $7.40

Bidwalls count for squat.  Someone is manipulating the markets.

I'm probably one of the few people shorting it. I stand to make a couple dollars (literally 0-$10) if it falls significantly below $2 before Dec 31.

(At least if/when the bitoptions website comes back up!).

Potential buyers have to decide when they want in. If they keep lowering their buys eventually they
completely miss the low and get left out.

I felt that expecting to hit 6.50 this holiday weekend was not likely to happen. So I put my buy orders
from 7.90 to 7.30. As the price gets lower I bought more.

And saying all buy walls are fake does not seem an accurate statement. Anyone can watch and see how many
of the recent walls actually bought up a lot of coins. Sure some moved but many stayed and acquired what they
were put there to do.

What is the worst that can happen? I lose all my money. That is a risk I am willing to take. I think this weekend
was ripe for a lower price and I expect in the next few days people will see it as a good buying opportunity.
If not? Oh well. Live and learn about the world of bitcoins.

It was the previous rock solid support level we all had buy orders around and momentarily dipped below on Aug 6.  It's a lot of people's cost basis and 210,000 coins have been mined above it.   Feel free to pick your own price target in the 6s from your target timeframe and favorite exchange if you don't like it.

or them 'freemasons' I keep reading threads on trolling with spare money?

1) Spend paycheck, buy bitcoins on other exchanges
2) Dump on market order sells
3)
4) Say I told you so?

And what will you do if the wall disappears or is moved further down?

I wouldn’t use the depth to make any trading decisions except very short term ones, really.

there are a lot of bid orders, a wall, at 6.58.

In my opinion that wall will never get touched. There is just not a lot of selling steam left.
The amount of people willing to sell in this downward slump appears to have tapered off.
If I had to guess it was individuals off loading a ton that caused this to happen.
Not large amount of people making a decision to sell on a holiday weekend.

I will freely admit my staggered buy orders have all been filled now. Even the last buy order
at 7.30 is now filled. I am all in again for what it is worth with the amount of money I have
in an exchange.

What’s special about 6.58 though?

Yup, the question is now: what happens if bitcoin breaks $6.58 and $5?  Next up, discussing $3, $1 and $.10.   The next 8 weeks might prove to be interesting.

Broken "long" ago now. Downward trend. Fragile support at ~7.4

can anyone place an iceberg order? is it an option when placing a normal order?

Icerberg order? I think thats like going to fastfood place and asking for no meat, no cheese, no tomato, extra lettuce

Only part of the order is shown.

What the hell is an "Iceberg order"?