Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart !

magneto

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Quote

1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$

I think that 1 and 2 are all very good points. Not sure about 3 though.

It's very likely that we're very close to the bottom right now. I don't think that we have hit bottom yet, even though prices seem to be rebounding at the moment. All I'm saying is that prices probably will not collapse down too much at this point, but rather move sideways with occasional dips.

With the percentage loss from the all time high, I seriously can't see prices going down to $1k or below like others predict simply because historic bear market bottoms have been around 15% of ATH value, and that there will be a ton of demand for BTC if it ever did drop below $3k in my opinion. The fundamentals of bitcoin has not changed, and there's still a lot of people investing for the long term. In my opinion, right now, in this zone between $3-4k is the perfect time to buy in cheap coins if you are able to hold it for the long run.

davinchi

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Apparently this chart could be quite true. Right now price started to get back up a bit, of course it doesn't mean the price will go up from here and there is still a chance that we can see even lower bottom since we are not clear out of the water like we are suddenly 10 thousand dollars but honestly seeing bitcoin increasing and breaking some points is great to know, we didn't think we could break 3800 today when the day started but we have seen above that price already.

So all in all, even tough the chart could still be wrong, there is a potential that it could be right as well. I doubt we will see 2800 levels anytime soon and I hope we can move beyond 4 thousand dollars and more in the upcoming future but we should still be a bit careful about our investments since anything could happen anytime.

mikeywith

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

we broke first resistance, should now act as our support , watching for the next Resistance levels. a break out below the current support will be bad for btc.

Febo

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Quote from: buwaytress on December 15, 2018, 11:20:29 AM

Can't say I'm not liking the chart, but I'm now quite careful when we talk about lines that are never crossed yet or thresholds never broken. Bitcoin's been doing new things in the past 2 years, bucking RSI trends, breaking 30, 60 and then whatever-day average lines, so if we see BTC fall below 2.5k (certainly not implausible now) then yeah, we're pretty much in yet further new territory.

I'm "liking" 300 days of sideways movement though. It's what I'd been expecting for a long time, but if I've learnt any lessons, 2019's going to surprise in some fashion.

300 days sideways seems to long to me. I believe bull run will start closer to halving this time as it did in 2015. Simply because everyone will try to be ahead of the rest.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on December 18, 2018, 12:09:16 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 18, 2018, 01:34:22 AM

Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on December 17, 2018, 07:47:17 PM

personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?

why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

Geroge soros taking a position bill gates or a drunkenmiller or anyone of that stature can turn this bear market around on a dime. Everyone is forgetting this is going to be legit by institutional standards. All the other companies means nothing gemini coinbase custodial is 2nd rate. That is like comparing a company listed on the nasdaq with the pink sheets.

bitcoiners seem to have a twisted sense of how wall street works. trading institutions front run markets---they don't wait until "the perfect derivative" comes along so they can buy the top after the rest of the market. they also spin off subsidiary companies to avoid disclosing investments.

again, there are CFTC-regulated futures markets. there are CFTC-regulated swap execution facilities. go home with the bullshit about pink sheets. even if you think institutions haven't devised custody solutions (which is another baseless assumption bitcoiners make), they don't actually need them to get massive exposure to this market.

but you think everyone's waiting for bakkt to launch.....right. wall street is just patiently waiting to pump bitcoin for us too. Wink

Bitcoinwaist

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I think the next logical step for bitcoin going to the moon is the scarcity play. I think bakkt ans institutions will take a shit ton of coins off the open market for a long time. Then when fidelity launches that opens a slew of self directed iras. Rhat money has been inaccessible til now. I imagine there will be thousands of people buying just one coin in their ira fir future retirement. I know once i can use those funds i am going to be buying some coins in it. Just my 2c.

Bitcoinwaist

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 18, 2018, 01:34:22 AM

Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on December 17, 2018, 07:47:17 PM

ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive.

i think that's because we're in a bear market. no amount of good news or services/infrastructure coming online can turn around a bear market. the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on December 17, 2018, 07:47:17 PM

personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?

why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

Geroge soros taking a position bill gates or a drunkenmiller or anyone of that stature can turn this bear market around on a dime. Everyone is forgetting this is going to be legit by institutional standards. All the other companies means nothing gemini coinbase custodial is 2nd rate. That is like comparing a company listed on the nasdaq with the pink sheets.Also up until now what is the largest amount of money anyone has ever heard of buying bitcoin? Probably tim drapers buys of the us marshall auction. Well there are going to be multiple buys like this every day. Everyone is fooling themselves that this isnt going to be a very big deal. This is actual delivery of said bitcoin no cash settlements and it will also be all public. No behind the scenes otc transactions which was all hearsay.
Go on yahoo finance and find a garbage stock and look up institutional holders of it. Pretty much every garbage stock has some holders like goldman, city, mutual funds etc no matter how much of a garbage company institutions/funds take positions. Bitcoin is way better everyone will take a position.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: STT on December 18, 2018, 02:52:38 AM

Quote

the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

Cant state both as true really, in 2017 the news didnt especially impede progress either. In September 2017 China the source of most BTC use blocked most of crypto from being used. A large part of BTC sucess was the fact China uses capital controls against its citizens which means they do not have access to dollars or many services the majority of the world takes for granted. Venezuela would be another example where people cannot act freely.
So banning BTC in September was a big deal but the price then was only about 3000 and it went onto much greater heights.

you're making my point for me. the premise is that "bad news doesn't matter in a bull market and good news doesn't matter in a bear market".

2017 was the epitome of a bull market. so obviously bad news didn't matter. think about the first winklevoss ETF rejection (which triggered the altcoin bubble) or the btc-e seizure or the china exchange bans. the market kept making new highs.

then look at the 2018 bear market. all the interest from asset management firms and investment banks in bitcoin trading instruments, the announcement of imminent regulated physically settled futures (bakkt), all sorts of progress with LN development. the market didn't care: sell everything.

STT

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Quote

the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

Cant state both as true really, in 2017 the news didnt especially impede progress either. In September 2017 China the source of most BTC use blocked most of crypto from being used. A large part of BTC sucess was the fact China uses capital controls against its citizens which means they do not have access to dollars or many services the majority of the world takes for granted. Venezuela would be another example where people cannot act freely.
So banning BTC in September was a big deal but the price then was only about 3000 and it went onto much greater heights.

If you want to compare it to now and state it as reverse, nothing matters then fair enough.

I'd rather recall that area as an important area with its support and resistance to compare now. But news and price now will vary from the past. I'm interested to hear if BTC is still growing especially in its population not so much the various banks really, only if people are finding it useful. Bakkt could be part of that

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on December 17, 2018, 07:47:17 PM

ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive.

i think that's because we're in a bear market. no amount of good news or services/infrastructure coming online can turn around a bear market. the media doesn't care about bitcoin anymore except to occasionally make fun of us or declare bitcoin's death.

in a bull market, all good news is fuel for the rocket.

Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on December 17, 2018, 07:47:17 PM

personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they?

why can't they get in now? there are institutional custody services and supposedly deep OTC markets. there are regulated futures markets. there are regulated swap execution facilities.

Bitcoinwaist

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ive been thinking about bakkt, and I really like the way this is setting up. unlike the cboe and cme futures launch there isn't much hype about bakkt which I think is very positive. personally i think its going to be a game changer. A slew of new whales with the deepest pockets bitcoin has ever seen are going to be able to finally get in. their trades will be public information. And at this point right now they are all going to take a position, goldman, citi, boa all of them. why wouldnt they? even if they are small positions its all going to add up as scarce as the float of bitcoin is. Many hedge funds/institutions dont get out of bed for deals less than $20 million. Even if they only allocate 1/2 of 1 % of some other miniscule amount of $$, at the least to bitcoin or some kind of position. I can see $20 million dollar bitcoin buys. I would be in before bakkt goes live.

STT

legendary

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Quote

1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.

Thats been said by a few now and its entirely simple. The clearest notes wins the attention of the most ears. Its very probable as a bounce area and then we have to speculate on the fight that ensues between bears and bulls around this area.

Short term no doubt its bullish but on daily its buried by an avalanche till it can melt that weight overhead.

kateycoin

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Well I think if bitcoin will touch a bottom it will be alright although its hurt see like that all are suffering because of losing their investment. I'm still believe that bottom is not forever it move up again and we will that bitcoin go higher price again. That's life we need to experience the ups and downs but dont forget to be positive and believe that everything will be alright again.

mikeywith

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

in this thread > https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48030883

i keep track on smaller time frames , i pointed out an important breakout of the falling wedge, and we did successfully break out and followed up with a nice mini rally.

we are not at a very important resistance level, i closed my long position , waiting for the current 4h to close, if we close above the 3600, we could see another nice rally to 4 to 4.4k.

Quote from: mikeywith on December 17, 2018, 03:28:07 PM

Quote from: mikeywith on December 16, 2018, 03:23:11 PM

waiting for a break out. Shocked

nicely done, approaching resistance so getting ready to close my long position , i might open short positions should i see a reversal candle.

dodgrad

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Everyone would be happy if that happened, but unfortunately the support prices can change over time, and in such a volatile market as cryptocurrency, it's very easy.

Idrisu

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Nice chart revealed the position of the market after putting the historical data into consideration. The bottom is really near and any pull back from the current level may lead to the bottom. However, the market is highly unpredictable and what we may think as the bottom may not be the bottom.

mikeywith

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

Quote from: exstasie on December 16, 2018, 01:39:40 PM

Quote from: BitHodler on December 16, 2018, 09:57:53 AM

Quote from: exstasie on December 15, 2018, 03:38:20 PM

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

That's what everyone said about ETFs, but the market stopped caring about them too. The market hardly reacted to the last couple announcements. We actually bounced for a couple days after the last SolidX delay this month.

Bakkt not going live doesn't mean that either. The only people depending on institutional money entering the market because of Bakkt are silly retail bagholders. The launch of Bakkt never guaranteed institutional interest to begin with. To hear asset management companies tell it, institutions aren't really interested in Bitcoin, period. The launch of Bakkt isn't going to create demand out of nowhere.

This is a bear market, so if the market is about to dump anyway, then sure, the Bakkt news will look important. People put way too much emphasis on news though. Bad news isn't the reason the price dumped 50% over the past month.

I do not understand why people give so much value to ETFs, people are starting to think that ETFs are the only way for crypto to survive which is very wrong.
i think this concept comes from people who live in the united states, as many think the whole world revolves around the US which is very wrong, i am not saying Bakkt will have 0 effect on price, but it will not be as big as most people think it will, if there is a bullish sentiment in the trend it will help increase it and that's all about it, there is no way on earth the Bakkt will change a whole bear market to a bull market. when btc surged from 3 digits to 20k it did not give a fuck about no ETFs what so ever. investors all over the globe who probably don't even know what ETF or SEC is will jump in when the time comes and price will go up despite Bakkt launching next year or not.

exstasie

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Quote from: BitHodler on December 16, 2018, 09:57:53 AM

Quote from: exstasie on December 15, 2018, 03:38:20 PM

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

That's what everyone said about ETFs, but the market stopped caring about them too. The market hardly reacted to the last couple announcements. We actually bounced for a couple days after the last SolidX delay this month.

Bakkt not going live doesn't mean that either. The only people depending on institutional money entering the market because of Bakkt are silly retail bagholders. The launch of Bakkt never guaranteed institutional interest to begin with. To hear asset management companies tell it, institutions aren't really interested in Bitcoin, period. The launch of Bakkt isn't going to create demand out of nowhere.

This is a bear market, so if the market is about to dump anyway, then sure, the Bakkt news will look important. People put way too much emphasis on news though. Bad news isn't the reason the price dumped 50% over the past month.

BitHodler

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Quote from: exstasie on December 15, 2018, 03:38:20 PM

What makes you think anyone cares about Bakkt? Hardly anyone talks about it. The few people that do are just BTC bagholders clinging to hope that good news will save the market. The market may not react much at all, just like it stopped reacting to ETF speculation. If it happens after a major bottom or capitulation, I think the effect will be minimal.

You might not see it as an important element, but it will very likely be when they yet again delay their launch, especially with the bearish sentiment in mind. It's more fuel to the fire....

It might even be an event leading to actual capitulation, because Bakkt not going live means no institutional money entering the market. Don't think VC's and large crypto funds consider that to be a good thing.

Don't underestimate how bad news, regardless of how irrelevant you think it is, can push this market further down. Institutions entering is what the aforementioned entities are waiting for.

boty

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★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!

bitcoin prices will probably fall back and going to the cheapest price again because it is no confidence in the bitcoin again even it could be proved from its buyers and demand declined.

Topic: Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart ! (Read 805 times)