Topic: Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart ! - page 3. (Read 805 times)
December 14, 2018, 11:14:17 PM
Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.
December 14, 2018, 06:40:50 PM
In the short run, we could see further decreases in price due to the fact that investor confidence right now is extremely low, and that fear is quite widespread across the market. As a result, I fully expect prices to dip below $3k at some stage.
But we are definitely close to the bottom. Your analysis is pretty much spot on, in my opinion, as the previous bear market bottomed out at around this level of percentage loss from the ATH as well. Even though that's not a sufficient enough piece of information alone to say that we're close to the floor, it will definitely play a role in this current market, especially as investors see this as a bottom signal.
However, the actual recovery is probably very far away still. Expect lots of sideways movements and further dips in the coming months. I don't expect bullish sentiment to return this year or even in 2019.
But we are definitely close to the bottom. Your analysis is pretty much spot on, in my opinion, as the previous bear market bottomed out at around this level of percentage loss from the ATH as well. Even though that's not a sufficient enough piece of information alone to say that we're close to the floor, it will definitely play a role in this current market, especially as investors see this as a bottom signal.
However, the actual recovery is probably very far away still. Expect lots of sideways movements and further dips in the coming months. I don't expect bullish sentiment to return this year or even in 2019.
December 14, 2018, 06:34:53 PM
Judging by the open interest change today it seems that the selling is drying up and the path of least resistance is on the upside at least temporarily.
Look at the open interest and how it changed when we hit the new lows. Yesterday the OI actually increased during the break because it looks like the OI decreased during the short squeeze up till $3300 area.
Today we had the lows tested again and very little open interest change, only when we got that $100 spike upwards did it decrease which was the shorts covering.
Look at the open interest and how it changed when we hit the new lows. Yesterday the OI actually increased during the break because it looks like the OI decreased during the short squeeze up till $3300 area.
Today we had the lows tested again and very little open interest change, only when we got that $100 spike upwards did it decrease which was the shorts covering.
December 14, 2018, 05:37:40 PM
It's almost scary how similar the post 2013 bull run correction is compared to the correction we're going through right now.
At the very end there was a harsh crash similar to the one from $6000 to where we are right now, and currently it's waiting for the mini flash crash (if it pops up to begin with) to form a bottom which will be followed up by a recovery. If that happens as well, then lol, I'm not sure what to think of it.
Currently there seems to be quite a decent chunk of buy support between $3100-$3200 and I expect it to ignite one massive wave of buy orders as soon as $3000 comes close. I expect the big walls to be hiding there.
At the very end there was a harsh crash similar to the one from $6000 to where we are right now, and currently it's waiting for the mini flash crash (if it pops up to begin with) to form a bottom which will be followed up by a recovery. If that happens as well, then lol, I'm not sure what to think of it.
Currently there seems to be quite a decent chunk of buy support between $3100-$3200 and I expect it to ignite one massive wave of buy orders as soon as $3000 comes close. I expect the big walls to be hiding there.
December 14, 2018, 05:06:36 PM
That chart looks about right. I think we could see a short lived drop down into the 2000s below that support, but basically 3000 I think will be the long term support for the bottom. I don't think it'll be 300 days until the bull market starts though, not with several Wall St institutions bringing out exchanges, trading desks, etc in 2019. Going into 2019 there is a much more positive growth outlook than there was going into 2015. But I could see somewhat sideways trading in the 3000 - 5000 range going until mid-year before the tide turns.
December 14, 2018, 03:33:23 PM
should this support fail then we are simply screwed 
.
.so if things are too bad for bitcoin, we can only do this:
we need to take a holiday so that we can relax and forget the price for a while, people are getting paranoid because the price is falling a lot, before I saw people saying it will fall to $3000, then I heard it will fall to $1500, then I heard it's going to fall to $1000 and then I heard it's going to fall to $600
December 14, 2018, 03:13:58 PM
looking at the monthly chart i can see 3 reason on why 2500-3000 could be the bottom of this bear market.
1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$
* even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$
1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$
* even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$
I've never really looked at monthly MAs on Bitcoin before. But I have a similar analysis, based on the 200-week MA. It's the same logic: it acted as support twice at the 2015 bottoms and we never closed below. It currently stands at $3,175 (Bitstamp), so we punched below it earlier today.
If it's going to act as support again, we only have a couple days left before the weekly candle closes. I'm excited to see if it closes back above.
December 14, 2018, 02:49:22 PM
looking at the monthly chart i can see 3 reason on why 2500-3000 could be the bottom of this bear market.
1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it.
2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA
3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$
* even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$
*if this scenario plays out , expect a sideways market for about 300 days !
* however during this market we can see up to 90% increase in price. before another decline to form the double bottom
* if 2500 is the lowest of the wick then we could rally up to 5k next year Q1 most likely after Bakkt launch.
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should this support fail then we are simply screwed
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