Topic: Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis. - page 3. (Read 1720 times)
I can say with confidence that Bitcoin has long been no longer like ordinary money. The current political situation on the planet is something that has a much greater impact on Bitcoin than technical analysis. That is why technical analysis to predict the price of Bitcoin is possible only for short periods of time.
I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.
@LeGaulois - Slow moving, sideways markets are great for accumulating. Don’t complain about great opportunities to gobble up cheap coins.
We all know where this market is going eventually so let’s have some patience
We all know where this market is going eventually so let’s have some patience
Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.
and how do you exactly know that the "majority of investors sold at higher 10k?" this is rather an thought of speculation, giving that we are 70% down from 10k it doesn't seem like majority sold at 10k.
He's half right, I wouldn't say it's the majority but there are sure a lot of folks who left the market. At 20k-15k-10k I have no idea but the market has been cleaned a lot. Maybe something not bad in the end since only people who believe in the cryptos uses will stay (generally speaking I mean)
Quote
expect the coming 6 months to be slow as fuck, Q4 2019 should be much more interesting.
+1 I find the market boring recently 
Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.
and how do you exactly know that the "majority of investors sold at higher 10k?" this is rather an thought of speculation, giving that we are 70% down from 10k it doesn't seem like majority sold at 10k.
However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.
I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.
it didn't drop significantly but like 2011, the hash rate plateaued during the bear market. i don't have any sources in front of me, but i remember hearing some stories of miners liquidating their operations in late 2014 or early 2015 because of the bear market. when you consider that businesses of scale like bitmain were taking over the market at that time, there were likely lots of smaller and more marginal operations being forced out of business.
Actually, I do recall reading similar stories about that period. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to have evidenced itself in the historical charts I've seen about hashrate. Or if it did, it pales in comparison to the drop we saw last year. Like you said too, Bitmain's problems are the other big indicator that it's a lot more severe this time around.
OP, utxo analysis released recently is also indicating bottom is near... Seller exhaustion and accumulation the indicators. Let's see. 1 month left before q1 is over.
I wouldn't call for bitcoin's bottom out because right now in traders/investors want to take their profits, they will just selling and take their profits and then back to our 33.3K again. This is how they a]keep doing us so I don't trust the market and its price movement beause some people can choose to destroy the market.
Do you mean 3.3K? Well, who really knows, if they are selling I'm sure there are only the whales who are doing that. Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.
Let the whales do their thing, they'll be tired bringing the price down eventually, next thing will happen is a price uptrend. s
I wouldn't call for bitcoin's bottom out because right now in traders/investors want to take their profits, they will just selling and take their profits and then back to our 33.3K again. This is how they a]keep doing us so I don't trust the market and its price movement beause some people can choose to destroy the market.
However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.
I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.
it didn't drop significantly but like 2011, the hash rate plateaued during the bear market. i don't have any sources in front of me, but i remember hearing some stories of miners liquidating their operations in late 2014 or early 2015 because of the bear market. when you consider that businesses of scale like bitmain were taking over the market at that time, there were likely lots of smaller and more marginal operations being forced out of business.
What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.
TA wise i'd say it's well over 70% that we have bottomed, but the fact that everyone and their mother is thinking so makes it look like we have not, i don't like to see the majority of people being optimistic , most think that buying bitcoin at 3k is the deal of their lives, nothing TA based but this fact alone makes me worry, market bottoms are not supposed to work this way, as long as i still see people calling for bottom it's safe to assume that we could very likely fall from here.
but i also don't really care, and so shouldn't anybody else, as long as you don't treat bitcoin like a lottery ticket then you will always be on the winning side, let's just work with that we got now.
here is what we know.
the mid-low 3k is a strong support.
the mid low 4k is a strong resistance.
the mid-high 5k is the strongest resistance ahead that will likely never break for at least Q2,Q3 2019 even if this is the bottom.
be it the bottom or not, we should expect a very low volume, side ways for days/weeks followed by a spike or a dip of 300-500$ from time to time.
i expect the coming 6 months to be slow as fuck, Q4 2019 should be much more interesting.
i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway 
?
?What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.
I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.
However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.
Yes indeed. There are a couple key differences this time though. For one thing, sentiment doesn't seem to have hit despair levels like we saw back then. People are turning bullish off any $200 pump. There's still lots of hope in the air.
I agree about the low volumes, but another key difference was the high volume at the January 2015 bottom, which marked the lowest point of the bear market. We still haven't seen a similar event this time around to help confirm the bottom is really in:
i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway ?
?What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.
I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.
However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.
Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250 or even go lower to $100, it never did and I had a large loss.
I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.
i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway ?
?What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.
I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.
However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.
Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250 or even go lower to $100, it never did and I had a large loss.
i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway ?
?What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.
You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily.
i think you have missed understood my statement, maybe if you read it in context it will make more sense, that statement was a response to that guy who said selling at 5.7k and buying at 3.2k is more or like
So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !
he thinks that selling at 5.7k was selling at bottom, but anyway i know he doesn't know shit, so no point re-explaining anything.
i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway
?let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.
You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.We can't discard $3,200 yet; it's a weekly pivot at historical support (200-week MA).
However there's been no sign yet that it's actually a bottom. We haven't been able to a form a higher high on the weekly chart since 2017 and that's still true today. With no such recovery and no high volume capitulation at the bottom, there's just no reason to put much stock in the December low. It's probably just a local bottom like the September 2014 pivot.......more blood to come.
let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.
You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.
If anything, if this ascending triangle we're in breaks out, shorters will very likely be rekt just as hard longers were rekt seeing the price tank from $6000 to where we are right now. Bullish market people expect higher prices, bearish market people expect lower prices. I don't blame people for being conservative, but there is no point in exaggerating this whole situation.
You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.
I have noticed that, too. It seems we are having higher lows, instead of lower highs. It looks like a reversal, but it is going slowly, giving us time to prepare. I think it is safe to buy in small amounts, right now, but with some orders at lower prices, in case it falls more.
Another thing I noticed is that a certain exchange (cant recall which one, right now) have increased the margin trading for its users. Maybe it is a sign that people are losing interest in it, and want to accumulate, instead of margin trading.
let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.
You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.
If anything, if this ascending triangle we're in breaks out, shorters will very likely be rekt just as hard longers were rekt seeing the price tank from $6000 to where we are right now. Bullish market people expect higher prices, bearish market people expect lower prices. I don't blame people for being conservative, but there is no point in exaggerating this whole situation.
Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.
That's just them feeling expert and knows the future, but the fact is they are wrong most of the time. When more and more people are agreeing to the price whatever TA is that, it will reflect to the public's perception and in that way, whales can abuse us.
What's the use of TA if the market is still under the manipulation of the whale, they don't need any indicator, they just do what they want.
Jump to: