Topic: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014. - page 4. (Read 27685 times)

Yup.  I would like an entire year of relative calmness first.

Why every1 thinks there is no easy money. Nothing is easy.
Sometimes even getting up from bed is hard, money to earn everywhere is hard, easy is to spend it.

Seems nuts to me, but bring it 

I would love it for this to happen but I see this year as a repeat of 2012...let's blowoff some steam, consolidate, and 2015 will be the next rally.

There is no easy money in the world.

Why not get through $1000 first? There's still quite a bit of naysayers realists other people who think we can't even get past $1000 this year...

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Bitcoin Will Pass $1000 By the End of this Year Options: Yes | No

I know there are lots of people trying to pay off their miners, which, I'm guessing, is one of the big reasons we haven't been able to break through 700.  But if we could smash through 700 (if we do break 700, I doubt it will be slowly), a lot of miners may start to put off selling their coins, hoping for higher prices.  If the sells dry up, it could move very fast, like it did in the latter half of May when it went from 450 to 685 in only two-ish weeks.  It might pause or stop at 800, but after that, 1k looks to be the next major resistance level.

Edit: And if there's enough momentum when running into 1k, it may break that quickly, too.  I think a lot of people are expecting ATHs in the next few months.  If enough people believe it will happen, it will.

I wouldn't bet against seeing $1000 by the end of the year, it's possible, but this doesn't exclude not reaching a new ATH in the next 12 months. Basically, I see the price swinging between $500 and previous ATH ($1000-$1200) for the next 12 months.

Ok, I see now where we differ.

If I were to bet, I'd say we'd see $1000 by the end of the year. I think we could see $2500+ with next 12 months. I'd have to go back and check, but I calculated the size of the last next bubble relative to the descending sizes of the previous ones. I think my estimates were between $2400-3300 as a target range for the next bubble high.

I am confused, where do we disagree?
I say in the next 12 months no new ATH is possible, that is, the old ATH at around $1000-1200 will not be violated.
What's your take?

200 billion in 12 months? Neither do I. 5-10 years? Yes, I do. But keep in mind thats a 25x growth from todays price point. So thats several 5x(ish) spikes with reversals in between.

We'll find out soon enough if there is enough demand to take Bitcoin to the price of your dream. I don't see this kind of demand happening yet, not in the next 12 months.

SMH. You are comparing a 8 billion market cap to a commodity?

What you are saying would be true at a 200 billion market cap. Not at 8.

And everyone will be millionaires if Bitcoin is even mildly disruptive worldwide. Everyone with at least 25 btc.

$600->$1000 would perfectly fit the definition of a bull market. Bull market doesn't mean the price goes 5x-10x every time If it was that easy, everyone would be millionaires.

When it's an established commodity/stock, when its market cap is large enough, it takes much more capital than before to move the market, hence the gains of the previous bull markets can hardly be compared.

Saying the market will only go up to $1000 in 2014 or the next 12 months is nonsensical in my opinion.

If we get into a real bull market $1000 could go down very fast.

A year ago we were around $100-$120 and people thought retesting or surpassing $266 in the near future was a pipe dream.

I don't know if we will get to $700 or $800 in 2014. But if we do, then $1000 is not going to hold back a market that literally has a lack of sellers. The only reason we aren't going up right now is a lack of exchange buyers. And we have no idea and no data on what's happening transaction wise off exchange. For all we no, the reason there are no exchange sellers might be that all the large miners are selling off exchange.

Sooner or later demand is going to pick up and once it does, without sellers to match it (much more than we have had for months) then the price will have no where to go but up.

Markets put 700 as first obstacle then is 1k, after those 2 barriers are broken then who hows now much will bitcoin worth, maybe it will crash maybe will go to 4-6k.

Like in red alert 2 "Time will tell"

I am not so sure about a quick run-up to test the all-time high, the ATH will be tested, yeah, but I believe a gradual price rise to that level will be taking place. Because there will be many sellers all the way to ATH, it can't happen quickly. Miners have invested a lot in hardware in 2014 and they will be selling many bitcoins to get a ROI - this won't be easy with difficulty rising so much => new daily supply of 3600 Bitcoins has to be absorbed by the market, earlier hodlers will be selling to take profits. There is no fake Mt.Gox bot trading any more to keep the price artificially higher, there is no China (at least no easy way for the Chinese to participate).

All in all, I think the bulls will be moderately victorious over the next 12 months and will take the price to $1k but no higher, selling pressure will be huge too, all these large and small merchants (Overstock, Newegg, Tigedirect, etc) add to the selling pressure, because they sell 90% of Bitcoins for cash (which is equivalent to hodlers selling Bitcoins) and mainstream adoption is not happening on such a large scale as we would like to dream (common folks are still not quite sure why they need Bitcoin and many of them can't handle it securely losing to hackers, etc).

Impossible to look into longer than 12 months from now.

How do you figure that $1k could happen but no higher?  $700 is setting up to be huge resistance, and it seems like a lot of pressure is building below that level.  If we don't break it, then we'll probably eventually drop a ways.  But if we do, I think the potential exists for a very quick run-up that could easily test the all-time highs. 

What's GOBI? I only know Gobi Desert.

GOBI opens August 1.  We'll see what effect (if any) that has on the price.