Topic: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Prediction. $4000-$6500 by August/September 2014. - page 6. (Read 27674 times)
July 14, 2014, 11:14:38 AM
Time will pass, August will come and go, September will come and go and the price won't even be 1000 again.
July 14, 2014, 11:11:21 AM
I think there are a lot of events on the horizon that are going to be very realistic reasons for the bitcoin price to explode again. Namely ETF's. There are several in the works. It won't be long. A month is like 5 years of progress in the bitcoin world.
Yeah these ETF's with all the legal certifications may be the only thing holding back "wall street" money from coming in. We'll see very very soon!
July 14, 2014, 11:09:13 AM
Still waiting for it, hopefully it turns out to be true 
July 13, 2014, 10:11:49 PM
I think there are a lot of events on the horizon that are going to be very realistic reasons for the bitcoin price to explode again. Namely ETF's. There are several in the works. It won't be long. A month is like 5 years of progress in the bitcoin world.
July 12, 2014, 11:52:34 PM
So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?
I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.
No event on the horizon. Lol. Ok.
July 12, 2014, 07:23:51 PM
So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?
I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.
GABI hedgefund being released doesn't point to an influx of money?
July 12, 2014, 03:24:38 PM
So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?
I wouldn't be surprised if it's delayed once again till next year. A lot of fresh fiat would have to enter the market in order for btc to reach $5k, and there doesn't seem to be any significant event in the horizon that would point to such a buying frenzy.
July 12, 2014, 03:18:13 PM
So July's mega-rally has been delayed to August-September or even October oh sweet November?
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July 12, 2014, 03:01:15 PM
This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.
Precisely. Which is why we have not seen the hyper inflation in the US that many have predicted.
Edit: This leads to my original point. Without an inflationary collapse of USD to save gold and other PMs, bitcoin could easily devastate the gold and other PM markets.
July 12, 2014, 02:28:13 PM
The only way i see this OP prediction coming to pass is if some major run is made on USD by China and/or Russia. But it seems the chinese at least are more interested in just increasing their store of gold at this point.
July 12, 2014, 12:35:20 PM
This is technically true, however in order for this to materialize there needs to be demand for such loans, which there is not.
Precisely. Which is why we have not seen the hyper inflation in the US that many have predicted.
Edit: This leads to my original point. Without an inflationary collapse of USD to save gold and other PMs, bitcoin could easily devastate the gold and other PM markets.
July 12, 2014, 12:27:46 PM
I wonder what will happen when certain people cash out their Bitcoins at whatever price back into their bank accounts via Coinbase? Like, when a coin is worth $3500 for example and someone cashes out 10 and $35k comes into their account out of nowhere. Does Coinbase have something worked out w/ banks that won't make them put a hold on an account when such lump sums come flying in? Not a matter of if but when this type of thing happens.
I'm curious why you would think my bank would put a hold on my account for a deposit such as 35k? I've had deposits in the form of ACH from real estate sales come in at over 50k and my bank didn't even blink, just business as usual. Maybe because coinbase is a bitcoin business then banks will be under pressure with the governments suspicion (paranoia) of bitcoin and money laundering?
Now if the bank has to report these large transactions to the IRS (for those in the US) then we'd be subject to whatever capital gains rules are in place at that time regarding bitcoin. With capital gains repurcutions, in this scenario I might look for a way sell btc without sending funds to my bank. Need to find a cretic tax accountant soon...
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July 12, 2014, 12:08:33 PM
You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.
In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else? The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T. That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%. In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/
2.6T USD of excess reserves can generate an increase of 26T USD in M2 because the reserve requirement is at most 10%. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm. For each dollar the Federal Reserve prints the banks can print an additional nine dollars because of fractional reserve banking.
July 12, 2014, 11:04:27 AM
We will see it soon, i hope you right but i really doubt it.
Let's just watch and see. It will be a game. And cut me some slack if I'm off by a month. But it will happen! I'm hoping my timing is correct too.
We will begin to see the bull run begin very shortly.
July 12, 2014, 09:56:11 AM
You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.
In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else? The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T. That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%. In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/
2.6T USD of excess reserves can generate an increase of 26T USD in M2 because the reserve requirement is at most 10%. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm. For each dollar the Federal Reserve prints the banks can print an additional nine dollars because of fractional reserve banking.
July 12, 2014, 04:49:55 AM
We will see it soon, i hope you right but i really doubt it.
July 12, 2014, 04:31:04 AM
I don't see it happening. Where is all this money going to come from? 
From investor's bank accountsNot just bank accounts. It can also comes from the sale of gold and stocks. A 100x rise in the BTC/USD rate could really shake up the gold market since the bitcoin market would then represent 10% of the gold market.
Edit: Bitcoin is a direct competitor to gold when it comes to "Austrian" / "Hard Currency" assets.
July 12, 2014, 04:23:16 AM
You do know what those excess reserves mean right? If they pull them out and start lending, which is ironically what is likely to happen if interest rates go UP without the bribe rate (the interest rate on excess reserves) going up, an extra $26 Trillion can work its way into the M2. That would constitute an increase greater than 200%. Thats one really wound up spring ready to snap back.
In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
Are you talking about the excess reserves that banks hold at the US Fed or something else? The latest data puts those reserves at around $2.6T, not $26T. That's still a lot, obviously, but only about 20% of M2 instead of 200%. In order for that not to happen, they have to do two things. Suppress the earnings of financial institutions so owner's equity doesn't creep into those reserves, and keep the bribe rates at least as they are right now proportional to mortgage and other forms of lending that "leads into the economy."
See the Federal Reserve site for the latest data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/
July 12, 2014, 04:22:21 AM
Honestly i've lost 0 BTC through gox and at LEAST 5 through coinbase.
Now that's a comparison you just don't want to make.
Coinbase may have their issues but they're not scammers like Karpeles.
July 12, 2014, 03:58:01 AM
I think the next bubble will be utterly utterly insane.. with an equal crash(it will stay + 3k or 10k depending on the top). IMO stock market crash... soonish not soon.
Imho hyperinflation needs to become undeniable first, its already underway but it just looks like booming markets at the mo.
I don't think hyperinflation will occur in US. British decline is gradual and austerity measure did kick in after people realize the insanity can not continue.
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