Topic: Bitcoin Crashing Again.... - page 2. (Read 6842 times)

Used to be? Was at that price for like 3 days.

Anyway this bear phase is quite strong but given anyone is so pessimist I think it may be almost over. Not saying it won't drop further though.

Short version, with the caveat that it has been two decades since I formally studied Games and Theory.

Bitcoin presents a clear and present danger to conventional banking and national fiat currencies. At the current level of adoption, this thread is more theoretical than real. However, should certain scenarios occur, such as wider adoption of bitcoin or the collapse of a major currency, then certain agencies (The US treasury being one of them) would have a vested interest in destroying or discrediting the digital currency.

I am presenting this with an understanding of the political process that may not be obvious to those who have never been a part of it, so I must digress for a moment to illustrate that while it is important to the political process to centralize and control a fiat currency, that currency IS NOT the one in which the political masters trade. They trade in power, and in most cases that is measured by the number of humans they control as pawns. In the West, where the main political paradigm is a pseudo-democracy, that is measured in votes. In more direct dictatorships, it is measured in actual controlled humans. In either case, that is the currency they most covet and most protect.

In the above scenario, it is likely that the ascendence of an decentralized and unregulated currency would threaten both their fiat and their franchise. In that case, it would make political sense for them to attempt such a thing, and while the resources were available. A big government could do it, in secret, and fairly quckly. They do not respect patents, and frankly there's nothing magical about ASIC chips. While uneconomic in the narrow sense, it would protect their monopoly, which they DO perceive as more important than anything else.

My conclusion, based on 45 years of living in the United States and watching just how rapacious it's government is, is that it will happen at some point. I am of the opinion that the bitcoin protocol and community are resilient enough to withstand it, but saying that it cannot happen or even that it's unlikely seems too complacent. But adoption will have to reach larger scales by quite a lot before they feel that threatened. Right now it's a diversion and cause for some concern to them. That can change. We want that to change. But we should NEVER be complacent when dealing with something that can potentially break a 500 plus year stranglehold on monetary exchange.

"someone" did execute a better than 51% attack against the US dollar in 1937. Very effectively, and with complete success til the present.

Not a very good analogy, though your point is taken.

+1
It will look very very very cheap in some time.

$400 will look real cheap in some time.

with bitcoin you never know it can still rise and rise he already proved it a few times

You lost me here. The halving will happen regardless of conditions. Over time, fees are supposed to replace the block subsidy.

Hash-power follows price. If Bitcoin is laughably easy to attack now: that is due to poor adoption. That implies that Bitcoin is not important enough to attack by well-funded actors. The hope is that by the time Bitcoin becomes a clear threat to well-funded actors, it will not be so cheap to attack.

Of course, in that case, a well-funded adversary can use the "hack every node" strategy I outlined for PoS coins. In a PoW system, it would be easier to recover from such a scenario: since the block-chain would still be largely trusted due to the proof-of-work it contains.

As I said in this post:

Converting Bitcoin to PoS would invalidate the experimental results. I really am curious if Bitcoin will turn out to be the first secure networked application in the history of man-kind. The main thing that makes me doubtful is that today's computer systems are inherently insecure. Formal correctness proofs are generally limited to military applications where you want to be able to deploy special weapon modes in war-time without prior testing. Even safety-critical systems like automotives still use Ad-hoc debugging. This allows bugs to creep in.

Except more than 60% of Bitcoins are already distributed, and still no plans in sight to fade out PoW.

The tax CAN NOT be reduced by halving, because the PoW network NEEDS to maintain 10% expense in order to not be laughably easy to 51% attack. Therefore it will reach a new equilibrium that rests at 10%, and continue to suck wealth out of the Bitcoin eco-system at that rate.

I don't see how does PoS is related to early adopter controlling more wealth (also, as you said PoW doesn't prevent it neither, Satoshi controls over 1M Bitcoin).  PoS can be distributed fairly, by using a mixture of PoW, development donation and proof of burn.

PoS benefits every single participant of the eco-system, wealth is re-invested in the eco-system instead of transferred out to hardware vendor/electricity company.

 

It is my understanding that most PoS coins use PoW for initial coin distribution. Bitcoin is still not generally regarded a viable,  so the continued coin distribution is justified, IMO. The 10% tax will be reduced to a 5% tax within 3 years.

The "unfair" wealth of the "early adopters" is a common criticism I hear about Bitcoin. You appear to be arguing that the early adopters should control even more of the wealth.

Bitcoin CAN NOT be a good storage of value, because the PoW mining expense is way too high. By holding Bitcoin, you are basically charged a 10% tax each year. That's not a good storage of value. Bitcoin can become a good storage value if it converts to a Proof of Stake network.

When most people have given up on bitcoin, that is when it will start its upward trend.

Bitcoin's price depends on the perception of the people. If enough people consider bitcoin as a good storage of value, it might hype immensely and we will see $800 or even $1000 again in near future. But if they think instead "better live now and spend everything" BTC will go down, too.

The graph does look plausable $293 would be the absolute minimum which I hope we never see.
At $300 people should be buying like hell

crashing ?   WHERE is crashing?
All i see is just a correction ....back to trend line


The bigger the bubble - the longer the correction time...
Worst scenario:   2-digit numbers (50-90 USD) by Easter time.
Then we might be in serious trouble. But certainly NOT NOW

Did you read this ?
http://gavintech.blogspot.ch/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html

It will bad, but defense exists
 - Attacker cannot keep up a transaction-denial-of-service attack for long time.  (his blocks will be ignored as spam)
 - I think, by requiring more confirmation we can prevent him from double spending.
 - it will expensive for him.

Give it time. Geez. What, you think Bitcoin is some get-rich-quick scheme?

While i admit that was quite the hyperbole, I think your world population figures are off...  0.00001% of 7 million is 70. There are more than 7 billion people in the world.

Arghh, facts, I hate facts. Stop spreading factual information you'll hurt the troll science.

Using game theory, can you think of a reason anyone would bother trying this? Your logic skills will be tested.