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Topic: Bitcoin Crashing Again.... - page 2. (Read 6833 times)

hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
September 28, 2014, 12:08:23 PM
#70

It used to be $1200..

Used to be? Was at that price for like 3 days.

Anyway this bear phase is quite strong but given anyone is so pessimist I think it may be almost over. Not saying it won't drop further though.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.
September 28, 2014, 11:49:59 AM
#69
But if an attacker obtain 51% mining power in a PoW network, there's nearly nothing you could do, other than go out and out-spend the attacker by buying more hardware and spending more on electricity. I'm sure the hardware vendor and electricity companies would love to see this happen. If no one step up and out-spend the attacker, the attacker with their vast amount of hardware can PERMANENTLY disable the Bitcoin PoW network, there's nothing you could do to stop them, other than... converting Bitcoin to PoS Smiley.

Do you understand that solution is easy, and attacker will spend alot of money ?
If you refuse hi priority transactions then your block will become invalid and ignored by others. You have to accept bitcoin rules or hash your own empty alt-chain.

The point of having a 51% attack is because you can decide which chain is valid, and what transaction to include. These are straight from the bitcoin wiki:

An attacker that controls more than 50% of the network's computing power can, for the time that he is in control, exclude and modify the ordering of transactions. This allows him to:
    Reverse transactions that he sends while he's in control. This has the potential to double-spend transactions that previously had already been seen in the block chain.
    Prevent some or all transactions from gaining any confirmations
    Prevent some or all other miners from mining any valid blocks

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
Using game theory, can you think of a reason anyone would bother trying this? Your logic skills will be tested.

Short version, with the caveat that it has been two decades since I formally studied Games and Theory.

Bitcoin presents a clear and present danger to conventional banking and national fiat currencies. At the current level of adoption, this thread is more theoretical than real. However, should certain scenarios occur, such as wider adoption of bitcoin or the collapse of a major currency, then certain agencies (The US treasury being one of them) would have a vested interest in destroying or discrediting the digital currency.

I am presenting this with an understanding of the political process that may not be obvious to those who have never been a part of it, so I must digress for a moment to illustrate that while it is important to the political process to centralize and control a fiat currency, that currency IS NOT the one in which the political masters trade. They trade in power, and in most cases that is measured by the number of humans they control as pawns. In the West, where the main political paradigm is a pseudo-democracy, that is measured in votes. In more direct dictatorships, it is measured in actual controlled humans. In either case, that is the currency they most covet and most protect.

In the above scenario, it is likely that the ascendence of an decentralized and unregulated currency would threaten both their fiat and their franchise. In that case, it would make political sense for them to attempt such a thing, and while the resources were available. A big government could do it, in secret, and fairly quckly. They do not respect patents, and frankly there's nothing magical about ASIC chips. While uneconomic in the narrow sense, it would protect their monopoly, which they DO perceive as more important than anything else.

My conclusion, based on 45 years of living in the United States and watching just how rapacious it's government is, is that it will happen at some point. I am of the opinion that the bitcoin protocol and community are resilient enough to withstand it, but saying that it cannot happen or even that it's unlikely seems too complacent. But adoption will have to reach larger scales by quite a lot before they feel that threatened. Right now it's a diversion and cause for some concern to them. That can change. We want that to change. But we should NEVER be complacent when dealing with something that can potentially break a 500 plus year stranglehold on monetary exchange.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.
September 28, 2014, 11:32:20 AM
#68
Wrong, it's extremely easy and cheap to attack PoW network, tons of PoW altcoin has been attacked to death.

Zero successful 51% attack on any PoS altcoin so far.

The 51% attack does not work on PoS coins because they are centralized. They use aggressive check-pointing. They also can not be "forged" securely (to an off-line wallet) since you need to keep the private key in memory (of a network-connected machine) to prove "stake".

Most famously, Vericoin (NxT) was rolled back after the Mintpal hack. (Another article talks about how Vericoin was not rolled back after BETR was compromised: paying ransom instead).

Again, WRONG. All PoW has checkpointing, including Bitcoin, because it's so easy to attack a PoW network. Most pure PoS coin does not have checkpointing, because it's not needed. Peercoin is fading out checkpointing since the PoS portion has taken over the network now.

Vericoin roll back is due to hacking, not because of failure of PoS system, so what's the problem? if someone hacked 50% of all Bitcoin available, you can be pretty sure Bitcoin is going to hard fork and rollback the attacker's address too, otherwise the eco-system will fail. Or do you think if someone stole 50% of all USD available, the US government is just going to let it slide?



"someone" did execute a better than 51% attack against the US dollar in 1937. Very effectively, and with complete success til the present.

Not a very good analogy, though your point is taken.
full member
Activity: 155
Merit: 100
September 28, 2014, 02:15:43 AM
#67
with bitcoin you never know it can still rise and rise he already proved it a few times Wink

$400 will look real cheap in some time.
+1
It will look very very very cheap in some time.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1000
September 28, 2014, 02:11:03 AM
#66
with bitcoin you never know it can still rise and rise he already proved it a few times Wink

$400 will look real cheap in some time.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
September 27, 2014, 12:59:53 PM
#65
with bitcoin you never know it can still rise and rise he already proved it a few times Wink
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
Let the chips fall where they may.
September 27, 2014, 12:17:55 PM
#64

The tax CAN NOT be reduced by halving, because the PoW network NEEDS to maintain 10% expense in order to not be laughably easy to 51% attack. Therefore it will reach a new equilibrium that rests at 10%, and continue to suck wealth out of the Bitcoin eco-system at that rate.


You lost me here. The halving will happen regardless of conditions. Over time, fees are supposed to replace the block subsidy.

Hash-power follows price. If Bitcoin is laughably easy to attack now: that is due to poor adoption. That implies that Bitcoin is not important enough to attack by well-funded actors. The hope is that by the time Bitcoin becomes a clear threat to well-funded actors, it will not be so cheap to attack.

Of course, in that case, a well-funded adversary can use the "hack every node" strategy I outlined for PoS coins. In a PoW system, it would be easier to recover from such a scenario: since the block-chain would still be largely trusted due to the proof-of-work it contains.

As I said in this post:
Bitcoin is a revolutionary experiment. It is the "first secure networked application ever created in the history of computers." (Out-of-context Bruce Schneier quote) Governments and banks will attack it through legal and technical means. It may only have a small niche over the next 50 years. If that happens, it will be OK: because it is just an experiment.

Converting Bitcoin to PoS would invalidate the experimental results. I really am curious if Bitcoin will turn out to be the first secure networked application in the history of man-kind. The main thing that makes me doubtful is that today's computer systems are inherently insecure. Formal correctness proofs are generally limited to military applications where you want to be able to deploy special weapon modes in war-time without prior testing. Even safety-critical systems like automotives still use Ad-hoc debugging. This allows bugs to creep in.

legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
September 27, 2014, 08:51:10 AM
#63
Bitcoin CAN NOT be a good storage of value, because the PoW mining expense is way too high. By holding Bitcoin, you are basically charged a 10% tax each year. That's not a good storage of value. Bitcoin can become a good storage value if it converts to a Proof of Stake network.

It is my understanding that most PoS coins use PoW for initial coin distribution. Bitcoin is still not generally regarded a viable,  so the continued coin distribution is justified, IMO. The 10% tax will be reduced to a 5% tax within 3 years.

The "unfair" wealth of the "early adopters" is a common criticism I hear about Bitcoin. You appear to be arguing that the early adopters should control even more of the wealth.

Except more than 60% of Bitcoins are already distributed, and still no plans in sight to fade out PoW.

The tax CAN NOT be reduced by halving, because the PoW network NEEDS to maintain 10% expense in order to not be laughably easy to 51% attack. Therefore it will reach a new equilibrium that rests at 10%, and continue to suck wealth out of the Bitcoin eco-system at that rate.

I don't see how does PoS is related to early adopter controlling more wealth (also, as you said PoW doesn't prevent it neither, Satoshi controls over 1M Bitcoin).  PoS can be distributed fairly, by using a mixture of PoW, development donation and proof of burn.

PoS benefits every single participant of the eco-system, wealth is re-invested in the eco-system instead of transferred out to hardware vendor/electricity company.
legendary
Activity: 2002
Merit: 1040
September 27, 2014, 08:21:28 AM
#62
I really don't know why? I mean will we ever see $800 again... I doubt it for some reason

Bitcoin's price depends on the perception of the people. If enough people consider bitcoin as a good storage of value, it might hype immensely and we will see $800 or even $1000 again in near future. But if they think instead "better live now and spend everything" BTC will go down, too.

Bitcoin CAN NOT be a good storage of value, because the PoW mining expense is way too high. By holding Bitcoin, you are basically charged a 10% tax each year. That's not a good storage of value. Bitcoin can become a good storage value if it converts to a Proof of Stake network.

 Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
Let the chips fall where they may.
September 27, 2014, 01:08:44 AM
#61
Bitcoin CAN NOT be a good storage of value, because the PoW mining expense is way too high. By holding Bitcoin, you are basically charged a 10% tax each year. That's not a good storage of value. Bitcoin can become a good storage value if it converts to a Proof of Stake network.

It is my understanding that most PoS coins use PoW for initial coin distribution. Bitcoin is still not generally regarded a viable,  so the continued coin distribution is justified, IMO. The 10% tax will be reduced to a 5% tax within 3 years.

The "unfair" wealth of the "early adopters" is a common criticism I hear about Bitcoin. You appear to be arguing that the early adopters should control even more of the wealth.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
September 26, 2014, 10:03:13 PM
#60
I really don't know why? I mean will we ever see $800 again... I doubt it for some reason

Bitcoin's price depends on the perception of the people. If enough people consider bitcoin as a good storage of value, it might hype immensely and we will see $800 or even $1000 again in near future. But if they think instead "better live now and spend everything" BTC will go down, too.

Bitcoin CAN NOT be a good storage of value, because the PoW mining expense is way too high. By holding Bitcoin, you are basically charged a 10% tax each year. That's not a good storage of value. Bitcoin can become a good storage value if it converts to a Proof of Stake network.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
September 26, 2014, 06:52:33 PM
#59
I really don't know why? I mean will we ever see $800 again... I doubt it for some reason

Bitcoin's price depends on the perception of the people. If enough people consider bitcoin as a good storage of value, it might hype immensely and we will see $800 or even $1000 again in near future. But if they think instead "better live now and spend everything" BTC will go down, too.

When most people have given up on bitcoin, that is when it will start its upward trend.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 256
September 26, 2014, 06:20:29 PM
#58
I really don't know why? I mean will we ever see $800 again... I doubt it for some reason

Bitcoin's price depends on the perception of the people. If enough people consider bitcoin as a good storage of value, it might hype immensely and we will see $800 or even $1000 again in near future. But if they think instead "better live now and spend everything" BTC will go down, too.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
September 26, 2014, 02:27:22 PM
#57
The graph does look plausable $293 would be the absolute minimum which I hope we never see.
At $300 people should be buying like hell Smiley
full member
Activity: 235
Merit: 100
September 26, 2014, 02:22:35 PM
#56
crashing ?   WHERE is crashing?
All i see is just a correction ....back to trend line


The bigger the bubble - the longer the correction time...
Worst scenario:   2-digit numbers (50-90 USD) by Easter time.
Then we might be in serious trouble. But certainly NOT NOW
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
September 26, 2014, 12:39:41 PM
#55


The point of having a 51% attack is because you can decide which chain is valid, and what transaction to include. These are straight from the bitcoin wiki:

An attacker that controls more than 50% of the network's computing power can, for the time that he is in control, exclude and modify the ordering of transactions. This allows him to:
    Reverse transactions that he sends while he's in control. This has the potential to double-spend transactions that previously had already been seen in the block chain.
    Prevent some or all transactions from gaining any confirmations
    Prevent some or all other miners from mining any valid blocks

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses

Did you read this ?
http://gavintech.blogspot.ch/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html

It will bad, but defense exists
 - Attacker cannot keep up a transaction-denial-of-service attack for long time.  (his blocks will be ignored as spam)
 - I think, by requiring more confirmation we can prevent him from double spending.
 - it will expensive for him.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
September 26, 2014, 12:39:10 PM
#54
I really don't know why? I mean will we ever see $800 again... I doubt it for some reason

Give it time. Geez. What, you think Bitcoin is some get-rich-quick scheme?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
September 26, 2014, 12:21:40 PM
#53

IMO 40% of people if not more have heard of BTC.. might know it as "Illegal money.. or ponzie scheme etc"

.00001% of people actually decent idea of what BTC really is.

Seriously? You think 3 billion people know what bitcoin is? I think even 1 billion is a huge stretch. I'd be very surprised, but I agree with the .00001 knowing what it actually is.

you guys understand that 0.00001% is exactly 70 people? Smiley

While i admit that was quite the hyperbole, I think your world population figures are off...  0.00001% of 7 million is 70. There are more than 7 billion people in the world.
full member
Activity: 434
Merit: 105
September 26, 2014, 12:02:38 PM
#52

IMO 40% of people if not more have heard of BTC.. might know it as "Illegal money.. or ponzie scheme etc"

.00001% of people actually decent idea of what BTC really is.

Seriously? You think 3 billion people know what bitcoin is? I think even 1 billion is a huge stretch. I'd be very surprised, but I agree with the .00001 knowing what it actually is.

you guys understand that 0.00001% is exactly 70 people? Smiley

Arghh, facts, I hate facts. Stop spreading factual information you'll hurt the troll science.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
September 26, 2014, 11:56:53 AM
#51
But if an attacker obtain 51% mining power in a PoW network, there's nearly nothing you could do, other than go out and out-spend the attacker by buying more hardware and spending more on electricity. I'm sure the hardware vendor and electricity companies would love to see this happen. If no one step up and out-spend the attacker, the attacker with their vast amount of hardware can PERMANENTLY disable the Bitcoin PoW network, there's nothing you could do to stop them, other than... converting Bitcoin to PoS Smiley.

Do you understand that solution is easy, and attacker will spend alot of money ?
If you refuse hi priority transactions then your block will become invalid and ignored by others. You have to accept bitcoin rules or hash your own empty alt-chain.

The point of having a 51% attack is because you can decide which chain is valid, and what transaction to include. These are straight from the bitcoin wiki:

An attacker that controls more than 50% of the network's computing power can, for the time that he is in control, exclude and modify the ordering of transactions. This allows him to:
    Reverse transactions that he sends while he's in control. This has the potential to double-spend transactions that previously had already been seen in the block chain.
    Prevent some or all transactions from gaining any confirmations
    Prevent some or all other miners from mining any valid blocks

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
Using game theory, can you think of a reason anyone would bother trying this? Your logic skills will be tested.
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