Topic: Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum - page 2. (Read 684 times)

With the OP I agree on the message of buying Bitcoin for what it is, as an asset it is much better than altcoins, or the stock market, although I believe in diversification.

Whether this is the minimum or not, neither he nor anyone else knows. We have seen too many times already extremely detailed analysis, even very suffisticated theories, that failed miserably.


To me, it looks like it's going to cost over $100k next cycle. The normal thing is that after the next halving it will clearly go above it, but I think it's going to take a lot of tries because of the psychological factor and the sell orders that are going to be placed around that figure. Under normal conditions the price could even go above $200k next cycle, but after what we've seen in this one, it's not so clear.

Bitcoin recovering is something that will come unexpectedly, so i believe that the price of Bitcoin going up and down can come just a day, so i believe that Bitcoin price recover in this 2023, let our prayers should investors should come in the cryptocurrency sphere 2023, but i know that they will different in cryptocurrency market in 2023 than 2022 that's remaining few days.

I disagree a bit for the bottom line at $10K, because that doesn't have to happen for Bitcoin to see a higher rise to $100K with a target date of 2024. Bitcoin can still increase without going down to the bottom and also without having to make all people have become very frantic in holding Bitcoins. Because when everyone is panicking about holding Bitcoin, it will only slow down the price increase in the market for Bitcoin. So for a large increase, Bitcoin can still increase from its current price without dropping to $10K.

it is mostly happen , that in the so near end of the year? bitcoin price falling and even bad for that days like what I've seen for how many times now so what is the difference from this year and the previous?
and there is also no Hopes for 2023 so expect this long term and there are no soon big recoveries from the whole market .

That's pure speculation at this point, probably the legdown could be $13k, $10k? it's going to be the final capitulation if we eventually reach that price.

Nevertheless, it's hard to predict where the price will be $15k is already low for this bear market, but who can forget $3,200 around the initial scare during March 2020 that put the market to it's knees? So who knows, maybe history will repeat itself again and see the market going down hard this bear market.

But in exchange, the market will thrive in the next bull run, $100k could be just the tip and it could go very high for a next ATH.

I do not agree that it could be 10k, that is way too low and there is absolutely nothing realistic about the current bottom as well, it looks like it's already shaky grounds and will probably go higher, which means that lower is even more unlikely. Not many people could see this about bitcoin but it is not naturally growing lower, it is something that makes money only when it goes up, and shorting it is the only way to make money when it goes down, which is limited.

This means that people are aiming at making it go higher if they can, sometimes they can't but that's the goal of more people than keeping it low and that is why it naturally tends to grow bigger overtime, maybe few years but it always reaches higher.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

Yeah, that could be the base price for the next bull run, we all know that this is the target last bull run, but we just run out of steam. And so the next time, and as big as the previous runs, we could hit $100k.

As for the bottom, I do agree, still going to be very bearish next year and it's possible that we haven't seen the bottom. It's kinda scary, but we have to accept that and prepare ourselves for next year possible worst scenario.

Some investors may even think that 100k for the next bull run is kind of low, but taking into account that the previous bull run was not as strong as the ones we saw before, it makes sense that investors are more cautious now and prefer to make more conservative predictions.

However it is entirely possible we have not reached the bottom yet as we never know if we could face more disasters like luna or FTX, or if another unexpected event happened and the world economy faced difficulties once again.

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

It is understandable that bitcoin is cyclical in nature and in the initial stages of Bitcoin this cyclical nature of Bitcoin was studied and followed up strictly such that the users of Bitcoin will know when each cycle will end and when next cycle will start. Peaple were not losing much money because of Bitcoin. But at a time in the history of Bitcoin when many adoption started coming into the systen and institutional traders entered into Bitcoin the cyclical nature of Bitcoin was altered such that some strong fundamentals and manipulations will alter a given circle, thereby giving a false cycle. This largely threw confusion in the Bitcoin industry and cryptocurrency that is why bitcoin investment turned to be as risky as it is now.

I think the chance is only slim because those dates you listed are so far. The economy must recover as soon as possible so that people won't struggle anymore. It's okay if the cryptos recovery is delayed. It wasn't our priority anyway but for those who do then, that was already their problem.

Many times we have been told that investments are only be treated as a kind of sideline or side hustle same with trading especially if that is about crypto because there are less regulations here and the value of cryptos are also highly volatile. Solid investors didn't leave the market and if there is the best time then it must be now when there is still a bear and not when everything is pumping.

someone showing a chart. where they just draw a line.. is not evidence

you have to use real world metrics to have evidence. not a simple MSpaint doodle line

the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month*ⁱ period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet

calculate the 6mon-2year*ⁱ mining cost. where they have 6mon-2year*ⁱ contracts on electric so are mining constantly for that length. meaning averaging out the hashrate chart by that length too to get the average cost of low cost mining.. this also means calculate the hardware costs of current gen EFFICIENT asic needed to perform network hashrate. where you set them at a 2 year run-til-dead lifecycle

then plot out the costs per period and then you will see a 'step up' of a "bottom" that sits below the market.

yep use data outside the market. using stats found in real world data and cost. .. not just a silly mspaint line drawn on a chart

example math
if an asic was $4k for 140exa 3kwh
if network was 220exa year average(earlier in year)
=1,571,428.571 asics
     =$6,285,714,286 2 year hardware life cost
         =$1,571,428,571 6 month* hardware cost

if electric is base $0.04/kw =$0.12/asic per hour
=$188,571.4286 per hour electric
    =$823,680,000 per 6 month*

coins per block=6.25=164062.5 per 6 month*

=$1,571,428,571+$823,680,000 cost
/164062.5 coins = $14,598.76 cost per coin**
...
emphasis and repeating:
"the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet"

no one on planet wants to sell below the lowest REAL COST of real world bills on the planet

the public speculative market then has a price above this line. which is speculative due to peoples higher costs and sentiments of their desires(the premium above the value)

* efficient miners do not play to whims of daily hashrate or price changes. they have contracts of 6 months+ so mine constantly.
**miners look at their contract length cost. and the coins acquired in same time scale then calculate individual coin cost from that
ⁱ you can also do it the micro level of just one asic and its daily burn cost and its daily reward slice of sat amount and multiply it to a btc. which again also comes to a near on $15k efficient mining cost

Yeah, I am also having thoughts like we may not get chances to buy bitcoins lower than $20k levels if we miss the current opportunities also the current prices may not last for long as we know bitcoin market may enter into bullish to sideways movement in the new year after year long bearish mode. So, I agree that we are about to see bullish markets and current market scenarios may become history.

Going by bitcoin cycle is highly recommended way to crack easy profits or to catch possible bottom prices of bitcoin markets. I am not sure how many of us going to make use of current market scenarios but I do keep suggesting this community to buy regularly for not missing out any good dips.

Does the link between the world economic recovery have the right correlation with the recovery of bitcoin, what I know is that the achievement of ATH in 2021 is also the condition of the world economy that is experiencing massive inflation and recession, because at that time we were faced with the COVID-19 disaster.

The process of sustaining the COVID-19 disaster has gradually recovered, the world economy is entering the recovery phase, although not yet fully back to normal. Investors were again shocked by the case that befell FTX, then there was turmoil again in the bear market this time. Most observers have started to reconnect the bitcoin correction process with the case that happened to FTX.

There is some truth to hitting $100k in that year, according to the four-year cycle scheme, or it could be that reaching that number could occur earlier in the year backwards before closer to 2025, as bitcoin's cycle has run in territory close to the next ATH and corresponds with the current scenario.

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

There are forum veterans who says that $100k for btc is not achievable this year. I guess that one is a valid claim right? Because, we are ending the year and prices as well as the economy are still very down. We can also add the negative news in cryptos happening around. This market is composed of different cryptos. If that crypto has no fundamentals then it will not be forever at the top but it will only be on the bottom forever.

For those cryptos which have a fundamental, it's only normal for them to go up and down. That is because people are selling at the top and then buying at the bottom. Just ignore those people who are OA and impatient. We can't get anything but stress if you will debate on them.

You sound like a devotee of Warren Buffet.  I view gold as money which might not really be a commodity, I don't know, maybe it depends who makes the definitions. Buying gold may not be investing. Gold is gold. Buying gold is like saving or protecting your wealth. This would all be good except the banksters long ago figured out how to manipulate the gold market via derivatives. This era may be coming to an end however, (or may not.. but i can dream). It seems the BRICS countries may be keen on moving away from fiat control by the west from things i hear about.  I always viewed bitcoin in a similar way to gold except there were no derivative markets and the banksters didn't yet own the market. I think this is still largely true (there are some bitcoin ETFs and futures markets now). For me physical gold, physical silver and bitcoin (holding your own private keys) are about stating your sovereignty. Taking your wealth outside the system and protecting it. In this era of global monetary 'easing' or printing you may well do better than just protecting wealth.  

I dont consider commodities as investment without any yield there is no deployment of capital in a working business or a return on revenue from that involvement.   Buying commodities is usually speculation and it has a cost to it usually with some decay factor, its an old trade done for centuries as farmers sell their crops ahead of harvest and other ideas to raise cash.    Its a natural thing to trade but I separate speculation from investment, the reason gold is not higher is this lack of yield I think and probably it will adjust for inflation but only over many years maybe a decade.
   BTC is far more liquid but also imo a commodity, global security commodity perhaps but there is no natural yield on that so thas why I come to that conclusion, and it also matches the volatility we see as holding is less favored then other investments.   I only state this so we can better understand the nature of what we trade and these cycles or season to BTC price action.

I'm probably guilty of some of that negativity, but I have to insist it's only for the short term, and only with due respect to cycles -- we're undoubtedly in a downturn. The problem now is no mitigating circumstance. Just industry-specific problems, FTX and others that are obvious, but I feel like there will be more, funds themselves are saying they expect surprises around the corners once liabilities are made known.

So I can't see us turning round the corner just yet.

Not saying there isn't a corner, and light at the end of that.