Topic: Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum - page 3. (Read 603 times)

People who say "unachievable" are pessimists and I doubt they know bitcoin comprehensively or maybe they know nothing about bitcoin at all.
When it comes to the market, we won't see prices be on top forever, nor will we see prices be on the bottom forever. There are times when it goes up and gives profits, there are times when it goes down and gives us the opportunity to add assets to our portfolio.

But the problem is how people overreact to the market, when in fact, if they were a little bit patient they would also see the chart going up again.

I don't like the amount of negativity within the cryptocurrency market. The S&P and NASDAQ seem to have bounced back nicely, while bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are breaking new bottoms. Had it not been for FTX, there probably would have been a bounce as well. Maybe it will happen with a delay when things settle down. As for your chart, it reminds me of May-July 2021 before bitcoin went to new highs.

Thanks for all the comments, I didn't see too much in the way of disagreement that we are around the low of the bitcoin cycle so far. It would be an interesting debate though if there are those who disagree.

On this long timescale I can't rule out another drop in price, I am not saying we have seen the low (although it is possible and maybe even likely)  however I still maintain this will be the region where the bottom is forming in this cycle, even if there is another leg down.  

There comes a point where the weak hands have all capitulated and strong hands more reluctant to sell. The collapse of FTX and all that may have been a way to flush out many of the remaining weak hands. (As I've seen in previous cycles with the FBI seizure of Silk Road) for example,.

Thought I'd share another chart showing some evidence things may start to turn bullish. This is a 1 day chart



Please note i nearly always use Heikin Ashi style candles and price on a log scale, as in this chart here.

What I am drawing attention to is a bullish divergence where even though the price is making lower lows. The RSI Relative Strength indicator is not. This can indicate that the bearish trend reverse is on the horizon.

What do you guys think? are there more bearish things I'm missing? Or bottom is forming here ready for new bull to start?

They can gain that much in short period of time, maybe a day or two, or a week or a month. But that won't depict them as something better than bitcoin. It's a fact that there were better performers than bitcoin in the past but it's really not that long and look where they're right now. All of them are being stomped by bitcoin's dominance and even if the market go side ways, bitcoin is staying and showing them as still the best of them all.

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

It's true that there are other investments that might perform better than bitcoin but they're not that guaranteed to stay for long. I've seen a lot of it and many have debated about how bitcoin underperformed as an investment but look where they are right now. Most of those projects where people have invested and said that they've made better money on it than bitcoin, they're nowhere to be found while bitcoin is staying at its past ATH as the low as of the moment.

I know people influencers and friends of friends that are into stocks but they can't ignore the profitability of having bitcoin. But as you've said, it's less chance but for them it's like they're not betting all in on bitcoin unlike us who have been into this game for years.

That is why we must always be aware of the movement of bitcoin because we will never know where it will move even though we have tried to analyze it. No one can analyze 100% correct about the movement of bitcoin because, besides that, the current price of bitcoin has been influenced by global situations that we may not know. But the people who support bitcoin will not lose faith in bitcoin, and they will instead take the opportunity to buy more bitcoins. We're bound to see bitcoin take another big hit, and those bullish days will come again, so we'll have to be patient for a while.

There are investments who are ahead in terms of profit, I mean they can increase faster but the only problem is that they are only short lived. Investors must be careful on that kind of coins. if they don't know its mechanics or how to play its game, it would be better if they will stay away with it and stick with safer coins instead.

If someone is from stocks then I think there is only a less chance that they will get involved here in btc but if they do then I do not think they will leave stocks but if someone starts with crypto, they will surely stick on here because imo it was easier and more profitable. I know it's only risky a little bit but it can be handled as long as we learn the basics.

I barely even owned any altcoin other than USDT, and it was only a few moments before I found another dip and invested. I only own bitcoin and that's the reason why I invest in crypto. Some altcoin I might also consider, but not at this time because I think maximizing opportunities to buy bitcoin cheaply will be more difficult in the future, and this is it.

When I feel the target or amount of bitcoin I have collected is sufficient for the long term ^{[according my budget]} then maybe I will consider 1-2 of the best altcoin for investment. I understand that some people may be skeptical of altcoin, but I'm not entirely. But now I think it's not the time to think about altcoin because I think this opportunity really should be put to good use.

We have seen the development of bitcoin in two decades. Talking about growth, it is clear that bitcoin has experienced a significant increase from the long process it has gone through, bitcoin is always associated with a four-year cycle, because if it is calculated mathematically it is highly correlated with its journey, this can be proven in market processes that have taken place.

The Bankers tried to block Bitcoin's growth by any means, but it didn't happen and even failed. CDBC continues to be pushed to reduce the rate of Bitcoin, which happens on the contrary, bitcoin grows and develops to date. Many people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be a hedge, a promising investment and that inflation is not having much of an impact on its journey. Bitcoin, gold, and silver are three of the better investment concepts at warding off inflation amidst the ongoing recession, our ancients have proven when fiat currency was not controlled as it is today.

Almost always in recent years currency is losing value.  Inflation is first reflected in an expansion of the monetary base far beyond any natural GDP growth in that country.  If there is more money available then its a given the price to describe goods will rise.   The only things that's saved us recently have been gains from efficiency and technology especially, also most QE programs have been involved with long dated bonds which stores a problem up for later but eventually its completely possible multiple western currencies will collapse to zero value. 
  It should be an exaggeration to say we will see value of common currency reach zero but its quite possible and it would be prudent to treat the risk as real.  I think Japan and the YEN is most near term candidate for collapse but I would also argue the ECB and Euro have problems unfold and could see the end of those systems of worth.  It will bring great upset, deflation is possible which typically raises the value of serviceable money but its not just one but many currencies which can fail imo.

This can't be going on and on without end. We all know how Bitcoin goes bearish and bullish and bearish again and bullish again etc. What we are going through right now can be justified. This bear season is brought about by macroeconomic factors and then shit happened with FTX and several other crypto platforms. Many have probably felt it that there will be more room to fall for Bitcoin and they sold. But this doesn't mean that people are losing trust in Bitcoin. So this is just temporary. There are bullish days ahead.

Very true. Bitcoin also doesn't give any shit on other altcoins. This is also from my experience before. I got big regrets before, holding too many altcoins or swapping my Bitcoins before to altcoins were my biggest regret.
Now, I already learned the lesson.

While anything is possible in the Bitcoin market, one can also draw assumptions from previous patterns and use that to try and predict what could happen in the future. While the ATH has been progressively increasing with each market cycle, from below $1k to as high as $20k and most recently almost at $70k, that's the same way the bottoms we've been experiencing has also been progressively increasing as well, from below $1k to $3k an now above $10k. I would be greatly surprised if the bottom goes below the 10 grand mark.

The more these scenarios occur, the more the market adjusts to it and becomes more resistant.

I would guess that hitting the bottom and then bouncing back up to a great level is an inevitable thing. I think it is a bit "known" that we won't hit 5k, that would be too little and it would be quite difficult to hit. I am guessing that it could potentially be a bit difficult to do when we are talking about how much bitcoin needs to be sold at the market price while going down, and that's not going to be that easy.

I know that it will not be that easy but I know the "possibility" of it at the same time. I agree that there is a technically possible situation going on, but it is not going to be that much of an easy thing to do so I guess 15k or higher is a lot more likely.

It's okay to invest in other investments if the investor knows and understands what with it ahead from those investments. If he's from the stock market and then suddenly reverted his attention to bitcoin and started investing, I doubt it that he'll leave the stock market. But what he'll likely do is to maximize his capacity, resources and knowledge in investing in both areas because he understands pretty well the other one and starts to know more with the other one. However, we're all agreeing here that in summary, bitcoin's the best and is the king of this market and soon most assets will look after it.

I personally believe that everything will go just fine from here on out, I feel like we have seen the worst and that’s it. During a bear market we have seen all we can see, even Luna and FTX alone would have been good enough to just make it crash, and we are above all of that now. Unless there is another big crisis or chaos or bankrupt or scam or hack whatever bad thing is on the way now, I think we are going to just go up and be a lot better.

It seems to me that to say that bitcoin is now at the bottom is just as likely as bitcoin to hit its bottom around 5k. In other words, it has the same 50/50 chance. No one knows how the price will behave or what else might happen in the industry. It seems to me that the chain of events such as LUNA crash or FTX scam is not over yet and we may see something worse, like Michael Saylor crash or something like that.

It's the other way around, actually.

If rando altcoins collapse, they don't affect Bitcoin. Rando altcoins collapse all the time, some huge ones too with mid-size market caps.

Problem with major shtcoin collapses like Terracoin (what you said in your example) or whatever they're called, is that they interacted with Bitcoin... they had a huge Bitcoin reserve which they tried to use to shore up the peg their stablecoin lost. So it was really when that happened that the market felt the tremors.