Topic: Bitcoin = dotcom bubble? (Read 661 times)

What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value? What kind of methods do people here use to evaluate future cashflows or earnings? Almost every time I ask someone that on this forum they don't have any answer what so ever. Maybe just a "well it's going to go up because more people want in so that they can earn money too". That's 100% the definition of a ponzi scheme, which causes me to think we are operating in a ponzi financed economy (ref. Hymin Minsky's crisis model).

The dotcom bubble burst because people were expecting enormous future profits, which wasn't backed up at all by the organic growth in the industry. How should we determine what is organic growth in the crypto economy? It's really hard to say, as the technology is so young that companies aren't really making money yet. So what kind of earnings are you guys investing in? Is it simply that you expect the asset to increase in price due to higher demand, or are you betting on cashflows from the use of it? In bitcoin's case I guess there won't be too much cashflow from use, but there are many altcoins that try to do this. I'm just thinking loud here, so I'd very much like to hear your thoughts as well.

What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value? What kind of methods do people here use to evaluate future cashflows or earnings? Almost every time I ask someone that on this forum they don't have any answer what so ever. Maybe just a "well it's going to go up because more people want in so that they can earn money too". That's 100% the definition of a ponzi scheme, which causes me to think we are operating in a ponzi financed economy (ref. Hymin Minsky's crisis model).

The dotcom bubble burst because people were expecting enormous future profits, which wasn't backed up at all by the organic growth in the industry. How should we determine what is organic growth in the crypto economy? It's really hard to say, as the technology is so young that companies aren't really making money yet. So what kind of earnings are you guys investing in? Is it simply that you expect the asset to increase in price due to higher demand, or are you betting on cashflows from the use of it? In bitcoin's case I guess there won't be too much cashflow from use, but there are many altcoins that try to do this. I'm just thinking loud here, so I'd very much like to hear your thoughts as well.

What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value?

1)   The pure bubble: like tulip bulbs bubble. Tulips became the most expensive asset and when the bubble exploded, their price went to virtually zero.

2)   Regular bubbles: these are bubbles that we see quite often because assets that have intrinsic value get too overpriced.

In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a company, stock, currency or product determined through fundamental analysis without reference to its market value.

I think if bitcoin explodes, it is going to be of this second kind. It won’t go to zero and if it does that will be because another crypto will have taken its place.

Whoever claims there isn't a bubble with all the dumb ICOs and shitcoins is simply lying to you or trying to sell you their own shitcoin. You just have to go around all these conventions and ask around, they just sound likes sales pitch for scams.

Now if once this bursts (which may take a long time, which means there is still time to get rich by alt speculation) will have a negative or positive impact on BTC is yet to be seen.

I think it will make BTC correct for a while if there are tons of billions lost in altcoins, but it will quickly go to BTC which will make BTC stronger since all that dumb money will finally be sitting on BTC.

What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value? What kind of methods do people here use to evaluate future cashflows or earnings? Almost every time I ask someone that on this forum they don't have any answer what so ever. Maybe just a "well it's going to go up because more people want in so that they can earn money too". That's 100% the definition of a ponzi scheme, which causes me to think we are operating in a ponzi financed economy (ref. Hymin Minsky's crisis model).

The dotcom bubble burst because people were expecting enormous future profits, which wasn't backed up at all by the organic growth in the industry. How should we determine what is organic growth in the crypto economy? It's really hard to say, as the technology is so young that companies aren't really making money yet. So what kind of earnings are you guys investing in? Is it simply that you expect the asset to increase in price due to higher demand, or are you betting on cashflows from the use of it? In bitcoin's case I guess there won't be too much cashflow from use, but there are many altcoins that try to do this. I'm just thinking loud here, so I'd very much like to hear your thoughts as well.

both of these markets definitely share some common characteristics. The dotcom bubble was a huge hype about the internet, which was well justified if you ask me (remember that it didn't die out, internet is still proliferating and has made a great contribution to our everday lives). I think it's quite similar with the blockchain, people are hyped a lot and it might crash, but the long term implications of the blockchain as so big, that they will eventually live on and we'll experience them first hand

In 15 years there will be many names that are forgotten?! Try 5 years! I can name you many companies right now off of the top of my head that achieved the highest level in the crypto world in their respective fields and are no longer here today. The first one that comes to my mind is Cryptsy. That exchange was the most popular in the world, and also Mt. Gox. Both are gone now and facing lawsuits over stealing their users coins due to getting "hacked". Yeah, right.

It's not so much that we're investing in "the internet" as opposed to a startup. It's are we investing in a Google or Amazon as opposed to the many that didn't make it. I'm sure in 15 years time there will be many names from now that are forgotten. Those that survive will be highly valuable. The most important thing to remember is that this has only just started, it's more like 1995 than 1999. This bubble has a long way to go yet. In market cap terms the internet bubble was in the trillions of dollars, we're still in the billions. Only 1.5 million people own a crypto wallet, just think what happens when the masses start adopting.

How do we know we're investing in the internet and not in a startup? If you catch my drift.

What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value? What kind of methods do people here use to evaluate future cashflows or earnings? Almost every time I ask someone that on this forum they don't have any answer what so ever. Maybe just a "well it's going to go up because more people want in so that they can earn money too". That's 100% the definition of a ponzi scheme, which causes me to think we are operating in a ponzi financed economy (ref. Hymin Minsky's crisis model).

The dotcom bubble burst because people were expecting enormous future profits, which wasn't backed up at all by the organic growth in the industry. How should we determine what is organic growth in the crypto economy? It's really hard to say, as the technology is so young that companies aren't really making money yet. So what kind of earnings are you guys investing in? Is it simply that you expect the asset to increase in price due to higher demand, or are you betting on cashflows from the use of it? In bitcoin's case I guess there won't be too much cashflow from use, but there are many altcoins that try to do this. I'm just thinking loud here, so I'd very much like to hear your thoughts as well.

It doesn't need to offer or promise any services for it's value to boost. It is the demand of the coin itself that changes its value.

Whoever claims there isn't a bubble with all the dumb ICOs and shitcoins is simply lying to you or trying to sell you their own shitcoin. You just have to go around all these conventions and ask around, they just sound likes sales pitch for scams.

Now if once this bursts (which may take a long time, which means there is still time to get rich by alt speculation) will have a negative or positive impact on BTC is yet to be seen.

I think it will make BTC correct for a while if there are tons of billions lost in altcoins, but it will quickly go to BTC which will make BTC stronger since all that dumb money will finally be sitting on BTC.

BTC cannot be compared to the dotcom bubble, the tulip mania or any bubble that ever happened in history. BTC is a special case from my perspective because it really can change and disrupt modern finance. One good comparison for BTC is the P2P music sharing app Napster. It started to revolutionize file sharing in the same way BTC will revolutionize trade.