Topic: Bitcoin = dotcom bubble? - page 2. (Read 637 times)

BTC cannot be compared to the dotcom bubble, the tulip mania or any bubble that ever happened in history. BTC is a special case from my perspective because it really can change and disrupt modern finance. One good comparison for BTC is the P2P music sharing app Napster. It started to revolutionize file sharing in the same way BTC will revolutionize trade.

In many ways history is repeating itself but at the same time there is a crucial difference, all the alts depend on bitcoin and that never happened in the dot com bubble, there was not a stock  that dominated the other stocks, since bitcoin is a currency all the other coins have a one way relationship with bitcoin, if bitcoin fails almost every other coin will fail, but if all the altcoins fail the effect on bitcoin is not going to be that big.

I could see how many people would make this comparison, however bitcoin is vastly different. I do not like the near parabolic rise tho, for the long term health of bitcoin. I hope we are not going to burn a massive portion of community, forever turning them off.

dot com bubble was from the companies that was established and they sold stocks on the market promising that it will grow because of the demand for their products or services but because it didn't happened prices fell.

Bitcoin's price is increasing because of the demand for its purpose. No company to consider but just people who will use it. So bitcoin is way different from dotcom bubble.

Whoever claims there isn't a bubble with all the dumb ICOs and shitcoins is simply lying to you or trying to sell you their own shitcoin. You just have to go around all these conventions and ask around, they just sound likes sales pitch for scams.

Now if once this bursts (which may take a long time, which means there is still time to get rich by alt speculation) will have a negative or positive impact on BTC is yet to be seen.

I think it will make BTC correct for a while if there are tons of billions lost in altcoins, but it will quickly go to BTC which will make BTC stronger since all that dumb money will finally be sitting on BTC.

Right now bitcoin has all the signs of a bubble but what does it change? You refuse from using it? Lol. All users of bitcoin see any real profit from it. You propose to abandon it? Even if the bubble bursts we already earned real money. Can fear and then not have anything.

you can not compare bitcoin to dotcom bubble, because they both are different things, maybe you are right in some sentences of your thread, but you are exagerating it a lot, i dont think that this might be a bubble, because it is too early to say that, maybe we are going to be able to say that we are on a bubble if the price suddenly goes to $10k at least, but for now, we are only in a pump time, not more.
But who knows, maybe tomorrow the price is 1000$, nobody can expect anything from cryptos

One thing to note about the bubble is amazon.  Ya sure it fell huge but if you never sold you'd be widely rich.  Bubble != end.

both of these markets definitely share some common characteristics. The dotcom bubble was a huge hype about the internet, which was well justified if you ask me (remember that it didn't die out, internet is still proliferating and has made a great contribution to our everday lives). I think it's quite similar with the blockchain, people are hyped a lot and it might crash, but the long term implications of the blockchain as so big, that they will eventually live on and we'll experience them first hand

I fully agree. Whatever happened to the many altcoins already in the market will not affect Bitcoin in general. The success or failures of any altcoin won't have any direct bearing on the value of Bitcoin. Now, if all altcoins would suffer some form of a bubble and the market for them will die due to many reasons, there is no reason why Bitcoin can be part of that as each coin is independent of each other.

It like saying that whatever happens to the many imitation goods around will not have any negative effect on the original brand and would in fact be a positive one since there can be more market share for the original ones. The same thing with Bitcoin though am not saying that altcoins are actually fake as many of them certainly have their own intrinsic value. We live in an open marketplace and what is happening right now is giving all the coins the opportunity to show what they can do and then we let the market decide.

Altcoins and ICOs serve one purpose: the creator wants to get your Bitcoins! Once you realize that, it's easy to see through most of them.

The fact that everybody wants them, is what gives them value.

How is this different from dollars, or gold?

You could still argue the same for many tech companies.

I expect Bitcoin to keep growing, as long as more people join. Since only a tiny fraction of the population uses it, there's a huge growth potential. All you need is adoption, value will follow. That's also why I worry less about temporary price drops now.

What makes dotcom and altcoins different is that altcoins and ico's are direct derivatives of Bitcoin, and they are mostly traded against it or Ethereum. This means that if they are in a bubble and this bubble will burst, people will just sell them for BTC and ETH without any direct influence on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin is still volatile and can be sensible to some events, so it might dip for a short term, but there's no fundamental reason why failure of altcoins would damage Bitcoin in long term.

Now, about the roots of dotcom and altcoins. Dotcom bursted because the technology wasn't there yet, so most dotcom companies were not able to deliver their promises - and this can easily repeat with altcoins, since the blockchain technology is also very young still and might not be ready to implement visions of developers. The other problem is scams - many projects are simply luring investors and not doing any development. Both of these factors combined with overoptimistic investors can cause a bubble, so it's quite likely that altcoins and ICO's will burst. Maybe some coordinated crackdown from regulators would be the trigger for it.

But Bitcoin will survive because it has delivered all its promises from the start, so when you are investing in Bitcoin you are getting exactly what you've paid for and not some promise of a future value - this is one of the main difference between Bitcoin and most altcoins.

What do you guys think separates the crypto situation now from bubbles like the dotcom bubble back in 2000? I find there are a lot of similarities, and it worries me. The expansion of the crypto markets with new altcoins and ICO's coming every day, it seems as if sooner or later it's going to have to stop. What gives all these coins their value? What kind of methods do people here use to evaluate future cashflows or earnings? Almost every time I ask someone that on this forum they don't have any answer what so ever. Maybe just a "well it's going to go up because more people want in so that they can earn money too". That's 100% the definition of a ponzi scheme, which causes me to think we are operating in a ponzi financed economy (ref. Hymin Minsky's crisis model).

The dotcom bubble burst because people were expecting enormous future profits, which wasn't backed up at all by the organic growth in the industry. How should we determine what is organic growth in the crypto economy? It's really hard to say, as the technology is so young that companies aren't really making money yet. So what kind of earnings are you guys investing in? Is it simply that you expect the asset to increase in price due to higher demand, or are you betting on cashflows from the use of it? In bitcoin's case I guess there won't be too much cashflow from use, but there are many altcoins that try to do this. I'm just thinking loud here, so I'd very much like to hear your thoughts as well.