öhm this is a poll for 4 weeks not for tommorow!
think longterm not like many speculators only shortterm, then you'll make profit too... not as much as they do but they have much more experience... so dont worry!
it'll go up again^^
Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 107. (Read 540250 times)
July 11, 2011, 10:36:07 AM
July 11, 2011, 09:56:07 AM
71% here is starting to be wrong. Here's the poll result at the moment that I am writing (when BTC are down at 13.90 USD):
Question: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up 15 (71.4%)
Same as now 2 (9.5%)
Down 3 (14.3%)
I don't know 1 (4.8%)
Total Voters: 21
I just feel pain, having bought at 19, thanks even to the perma-bulls here who trolled the contrarians.
Question: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up 15 (71.4%)
Same as now 2 (9.5%)
Down 3 (14.3%)
I don't know 1 (4.8%)
Total Voters: 21
I just feel pain, having bought at 19, thanks even to the perma-bulls here who trolled the contrarians.
July 10, 2011, 03:02:56 PM
Two questions for you.
1) Is your subscription service free?
No, the in-depth analysis means extensive work and the monthly fee is 5 BTC.
Here are some more details: http://bit.ly/mjP1Rh
The weekly analysis will typically arrive Thursday evening London
time. On top, you will receive interim updates and alerts, depending on
market conditions. Everything will be sent to your email address.
If you want to secure more than one month at 5 BTC / month onwards, you
can secure as many months as you wish to stay in the member pool, and
then sent the appropriate bitcoins (my subscribers are very satisfied and many have already paid
for a couple of months in advance).
For July, I charge only 4 BTC for you.
For the payment, here is a new address that is specific to you so I can
properly see if payment arrived.
1CtjrYqDtcAHknpsX6ZqBJszyQzxvEU5BW
Once I received the funds, you will be in the subscriber pool.
2) You seem knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. What would you recommend reading as an introduction to the sort of analysis you do? I don't have a strong background in either economics or trading, but I'd like to learn.
For a very quick intro, you can look at: http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/#axzz1Rjavruib
A good book is: Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"
Further, I also sometimes look at elliottwaves: www.elliottwave.com
Hope this helps
For a very quick intro, you can look at: http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/#axzz1Rjavruib
A good book is: Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"
Further, I also sometimes look at elliottwaves: www.elliottwave.com
Hope this helps
July 10, 2011, 02:50:42 PM
I have reset the poll again.
Vote now. Thanks for your opinion.
Up
Same?
Down
Vote now. Thanks for your opinion.
Up
Same?
Down
July 10, 2011, 06:53:19 AM
Not much action today with extremely low volume. We'll probably see the same type of action tomorrow, I'll be waiting to see what early Monday brings before taking an action.
You should probably be checking the charts right about now. 
July 09, 2011, 11:32:11 PM
Not much action today with extremely low volume. We'll probably see the same type of action tomorrow, I'll be waiting to see what early Monday brings before taking an action.
July 09, 2011, 04:26:09 PM
How do I subscribe to your service?
July 09, 2011, 01:56:01 PM
This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.
Two questions for you.
1) Is your subscription service free?
2) You seem knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. What would you recommend reading as an introduction to the sort of analysis you do? I don't have a strong background in either economics or trading, but I'd like to learn.
July 09, 2011, 11:30:03 AM
This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.
Interesting analysis.
Based on recent history I am anticipating a Monday or Tuesday $2-$3 sell-off. Or maybe I am wishing for a sell off?
I am going to be watching this closely and see how it pans out.
S.
July 09, 2011, 11:27:10 AM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator
The "weekend" is young. It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).
That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.
The Saturday chart indicates not much in the way of trading activity...
Trading at $14.20 all morning, with a couple of 20 cents upward spikes and then the predictable smack-downs, now were at $14.46.
May I ask, is this pretty much going to par for the course with BTC weekend trading?
SJ
It's summer, it's the weekend, people are out doing things with their family or friends. I'd say it's gonna be par for the course.
July 09, 2011, 11:21:16 AM
This depends on trader psychology. But as mentioned in my subscription service. We are seeing a short term bullish formation with a breakout of a bullish flag. I expect this to happen in the next 24-48 hours.
July 09, 2011, 11:18:30 AM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator
The "weekend" is young. It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).
That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.
The Saturday chart indicates not much in the way of trading activity...
Trading at $14.20 all morning, with a couple of 20 cents upward spikes and then the predictable smack-downs, now were at $14.46.
May I ask, is this pretty much going to par for the course with BTC weekend trading?
SJ
July 09, 2011, 11:15:46 AM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator
The "weekend" is young. It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).
That may be a function of more traders getting a better idea of what their liquidity levels need to be for the weekend.
Sorry for not being clearer before (my mobile device is crap):
The weekend dip is a myth. Just because we have seen some weekend weakness for a couple of times does not make a good indicator.
More important is the summary of many technical aspects and then build a consolidated picture using many tools. Just using one tool will severely punish those people focusing too much on this one thing.
Because even if it works a couple of times, the next time this tool will fail and people sticking too rigidly to it will be washed out of the market.
Technical analysis is an art, not a computer program. (this should not sound arrogant, I am not saying I am a perfect analyst, but I have experienced many of these issues a decade ago when I started).
Just forget about the weekend effect in bitcoins (or at least use it in conjunction with other analyses).
July 09, 2011, 07:11:34 AM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator
The "weekend" is young. It seems like the big "weekend" selloffs have been happening later (i.e. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday).
July 09, 2011, 06:48:51 AM
as with many too obvious things and indicators, the weekend dip does not appear to happen. This may causse some buying rush when people realize that they can't get coins cheaper. It I'd always dangerous to look at 1 single indicator
July 08, 2011, 06:19:03 PM
The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.
Thoughts on this?
SJ
Thoughts on this?
SJ
I couldn't agree more. The volatility lately has made it a day trader heaven. Tuesdays intra-day low is the line in the sand for now, but even if it breaks $10 is not far from it which holds as a psychological support level. IMO
Thanks for validating.
I had it in my mind originally that I would be watching and trading hour to hour with this stuff.
But the chart data patterns point to more profitable ventures with more long-term trades throughout the week, i.e getting in on the weekly low, then selling for profit that day or the next... and then repeat.
Will be interesting to see what patterns emerge for the Weekend and Next Week.
SJ
Volatility -> profit -> stability
July 08, 2011, 01:50:40 PM
I voted "same as now", meaning "between 10 and 17". I think the $10 level needs to be tested again to either lose it or form a double low.
I think the $10 level has proven to have some strong support. It's already made a double low, June 12th and July 5th (ignoring the whole hacking incident/flash crash which I don't think we can call a real price). I was really glad to see $10 tested again on the 5th and hold. Since the rally up from $10 has lost steam, I tend to agree that we'll probably see fluctuations in the "10 to17" range.
I half agree with you. While it may already have tested the $10 twice, I personally believe that the crash has substantially changed the rules of the game, and would love to see that level being checked again, for the second second (sic) time.
July 08, 2011, 01:07:38 PM
The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.
Thoughts on this?
SJ
Thoughts on this?
SJ
I couldn't agree more. The volatility lately has made it a day trader heaven. Tuesdays intra-day low is the line in the sand for now, but even if it breaks $10 is not far from it which holds as a psychological support level. IMO
Thanks for validating.
I had it in my mind originally that I would be watching and trading hour to hour with this stuff.
But the chart data patterns point to more profitable ventures with more long-term trades throughout the week, i.e getting in on the weekly low, then selling for profit that day or the next... and then repeat.
Will be interesting to see what patterns emerge for the Weekend and Next Week.
SJ
July 08, 2011, 11:26:56 AM
The way the prices have fluctuated in light of the last 5 days, I see this as an "Intraday" trading market, trading around the big low for the week, and then selling at the end of the rally a day or two later, IHMO.
Thoughts on this?
SJ
Thoughts on this?
SJ
I couldn't agree more. The volatility lately has made it a day trader heaven. Tuesdays intra-day low is the line in the sand for now, but even if it breaks $10 is not far from it which holds as a psychological support level. IMO
July 08, 2011, 10:47:52 AM
I voted "same as now", meaning "between 10 and 17". I think the $10 level needs to be tested again to either lose it or form a double low.
I think the $10 level has proven to have some strong support. It's already made a double low, June 12th and July 5th (ignoring the whole hacking incident/flash crash which I don't think we can call a real price). I was really glad to see $10 tested again on the 5th and hold. Since the rally up from $10 has lost steam, I tend to agree that we'll probably see fluctuations in the "10 to17" range.
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