Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 102. (Read 540250 times)
August 14, 2011, 04:05:52 PM
Long term: UP.
Mid term: Consolidation from the 31.9 $ all time high.
Short term: UP from the 5.74 $ low.
Color legend: Green: UP, Purple: SIDEWAYS, Red: DOWN.
With the expected fall into the 5 - 5.8 $ area, the minimum downside retracement has been reached last week. This could have already been the end of the correction from the all time high of 31.9 $. If this is true, bitcoins could be starting a major rally again which would be important for bitcoin trading.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
We may be right at the start of a major rally, provided bitcoin will confirm the nascent breakout above the trend channel - as shown on below chart.
The short term will remain UP as long as the 5 - 5.8 $ zone holds (red line), and even better, as long as 8.4 $ holds.
Momentum (MACD) and relative strength indicators point upwards for the first time since mid June 2011.
http://bit.ly/pf9p9f
Trade Bitcoins well! Stay tuned for further Bitcoin technical analysis here.
Your S3052
August 11, 2011, 01:41:00 AM
One thing I have not understood -- how can you discern whether or not that was a self-fulfilling prophecy?
If S3052 is able to generate self-fulfilling prophecies, then you'd better get on board!
IMO, earlier on S3052 was generating self-fulfilling prophecies. Back a few months ago when the daily trading volume was closer to $10k and all of his analyses were public (before his subscription program). The market was small enough that it all it took to send the price up was one of S3052's charts with a green arrow, usually not long after he posted.
This influence seemed to lessen as the market grew bigger.
August 10, 2011, 10:45:31 PM
One thing I have not understood -- how can you discern whether or not that was a self-fulfilling prophecy?
If S3052 is able to generate self-fulfilling prophecies, then you'd better get on board!
August 10, 2011, 03:33:59 PM
@brocktice:
I tried to answer this question here:
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-analysis-a-review-august-7th-2011-by-s3052/#comment-253
I tried to answer this question here:
http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/08/bitcoin-technical-analysis-a-review-august-7th-2011-by-s3052/#comment-253
August 10, 2011, 03:15:31 PM
And when looking at one of the latest technical analysis: "up from the 12.5 low". This means that the preferred scenario is UP, but it also says that you should sell when it breaks below. Many bitcoin traders have done that, minimized potential losses and bought back in the 5.74 - 7.8 $ area (many of my subscribers gave me this positive feedback).
One thing I have not understood -- how can you discern whether or not that was a self-fulfilling prophecy?
August 10, 2011, 12:45:42 PM
here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9W
Longterm: UP.
Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds
Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance.
[/quote]
This was not correct. Just sayin'.
[/quote]
Yeah, bitcoin is not stable enough to be properly analyzed.
Anyone hitting it with math to find the future in the long term will propably fail at doing so consistently.
You see, individuals can have a far to great influence on the price.
There isnt a stable portion of the traders behaving as a mass and so any assumptions made about masses behaving will fail.
And since the price is decided, ultimately, by behaviour it is kindof strange to see people trying to abstract the hell out of bitcoin while they're dealing with more individualism and less group behaviour than their math has been tuned to.
[/quote]
I know you may not have had the time to review the success of the technical analysis since I started here in October 2010.
In fact, I started the Technical Analysis on bitcoins exactly with the purpose to answer the question: "Will my technical analysis work for bitcoin as well as for other financial markets?".
And indeed, it works just as fine.
And when looking at one of the latest technical analysis: "up from the 12.5 low". This means that the preferred scenario is UP, but it also says that you should sell when it breaks below. Many bitcoin traders have done that, minimized potential losses and bought back in the 5.74 - 7.8 $ area (many of my subscribers gave me this positive feedback).
And lastly, to become a good trader on bitcoins or other financial markets, there is more than technical anaylsis you need to master: money management. Everybody needs to learn this. We can't manage this as we do not know your risk profile, etc.
August 10, 2011, 10:00:41 AM
Quote
Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).
it would matter if it was a resource that we did use. like oil. and random economics does not apply to bitcoin. bitcoin haves a whole set of economic-theory-breaking stuff. like difficulty. you don't have that when you are mining for gold. gold is not easier to get when there are less there are mining it.That's an interesting point but it's actually even stranger. No matter how many are mining, the amount produced is relatively constant (subject to minor fluctuations in hashing power and the periodic halving of mining rewards).
August 10, 2011, 07:03:13 AM
Quote
Thnx, for figuring that out for me. 
... bit lazy like that.
me too, i just did remember a thread where they where crying about it, and did some math about it. ... bit lazy like that.Quote
Now isn't it interesting that the $5 cost of production level is pretty damned close to the recent bottom that usd/btc just put in?
why is that? so because some random speculator panicked, and dumped a lot of coins, its the production cost?doesn't really make sense.
Quote
Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).
it would matter if it was a resource that we did use. like oil. and random economics does not apply to bitcoin. bitcoin haves a whole set of economic-theory-breaking stuff. like difficulty. you don't have that when you are mining for gold. gold is not easier to get when there are less there are mining it.Quote
I never said anything about btc being worthless so have no idea where you are coming from with that last statement. (they are worth exactly what someone is willing to exchange with you for them ... supply and demand).
sorry about that. it just felt like you where screaming like all the other noobs about: "bitcoins is backed by nothing, or at least processing power, it is therefor useless!!!!!"Too much of what you said above is wrong for me to bother with replying to all of it ... you'll get there, keep looking up.
If you take nothing else away from our brief discussion remember this; when btc/fiat hits cost of production it is cheaper to buy btc than mine .... so do the math on that one thinking first like a miner and then like a btc buyer ... as long as btc remains viable as a currency, cost of production will be very near the floor for the price ... buy low, sell high, get rich
August 10, 2011, 05:54:51 AM
Here is tonight's Bitcoin technical and market update.
Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:
14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS
here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9W
Longterm: UP.
Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds
Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance.
Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:
14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS
here is the link to view the charts: http://bit.ly/q3UQ9W
Longterm: UP.
Midterm: UP as long as the 9.5 $ - 10 $ range holds
Shortterm: UP from the 12.5 $ low and down sloping channel resistance.
This was not correct. Just sayin'.
Yeah, bitcoin is not stable enough to be properly analyzed.
Anyone hitting it with math to find the future in the long term will propably fail at doing so consistently.
You see, individuals can have a far to great influence on the price.
There isnt a stable portion of the traders behaving as a mass and so any assumptions made about masses behaving will fail.
And since the price is decided, ultimately, by behaviour it is kindof strange to see people trying to abstract the hell out of bitcoin while they're dealing with more individualism and less group behaviour than their math has been tuned to.
August 10, 2011, 02:50:34 AM
Quote
Thnx, for figuring that out for me. ... bit lazy like that.
me too, i just did remember a thread where they where crying about it, and did some math about it. ... bit lazy like that.Quote
Now isn't it interesting that the $5 cost of production level is pretty damned close to the recent bottom that usd/btc just put in?
why is that? so because some random speculator panicked, and dumped a lot of coins, its the production cost?doesn't really make sense.
Quote
Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).
it would matter if it was a resource that we did use. like oil. and random economics does not apply to bitcoin. bitcoin haves a whole set of economic-theory-breaking stuff. like difficulty. you don't have that when you are mining for gold. gold is not easier to get when there are less there are mining it.Quote
I never said anything about btc being worthless so have no idea where you are coming from with that last statement. (they are worth exactly what someone is willing to exchange with you for them ... supply and demand).
sorry about that. it just felt like you where screaming like all the other noobs about: "bitcoins is backed by nothing, or at least processing power, it is therefor useless!!!!!" August 09, 2011, 05:41:29 PM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?
So you haven't got the slightest, foggiest notion about the average cost of production of a bitcoin?
yes i do, around $4-5, right now. if it is all time, then its more like $0.5 because of all the difficulty-1 block.
any way the production cost does not matter, because we bitcoins, have a very low overall supply of them.
there will only be 21millions of them.
if you think bitcoins are worthless, why are you still here?
Thnx, for figuring that out for me.
... bit lazy like that.Now isn't it interesting that the $5 cost of production level is pretty damned close to the recent bottom that usd/btc just put in?
Cost of production does matter just not in the way you might think .... if you've had anything to do with resource extraction economics you'll know exactly what I mean (otherwise you have some fair amount of research ahead of you).
I never said anything about btc being worthless so have no idea where you are coming from with that last statement. (they are worth exactly what someone is willing to exchange with you for them ... supply and demand).
Network enforced scarcity.
August 09, 2011, 07:26:51 AM
the average cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100
Good point.
Let me add that the average cost of production of the smoke created by the combustion of a $100 bill is, for most people, slightly above $100.
Yet that smoke is worth almost zero.
LOL
August 09, 2011, 05:37:59 AM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?
So you haven't got the slightest, foggiest notion about the average cost of production of a bitcoin?
yes i do, around $4-5, right now. if it is all time, then its more like $0.5 because of all the difficulty-1 block.
any way the production cost does not matter, because we bitcoins, have a very low overall supply of them.
there will only be 21millions of them.
if you think bitcoins are worthless, why are you still here?
August 09, 2011, 05:30:52 AM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?
So you haven't got the slightest, foggiest notion about the average cost of production of a bitcoin?
August 09, 2011, 05:16:52 AM
the average cost of production of a $100 bill, is very very small. still its worth $100
Good point.
Let me add that the average cost of production of the smoke created by the combustion of a $100 bill is, for most people, slightly above $100.
Yet that smoke is worth almost zero.
August 09, 2011, 05:08:10 AM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?
August 09, 2011, 05:02:42 AM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
Got a sensible figure for average cost of production?
August 08, 2011, 02:19:07 AM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
more or less, yes. may fall through to 5 but most probable is a shar turn from 7, depends on how fast wires would clear
August 08, 2011, 02:06:29 AM
You guys figure we've hit a support level yet?
August 07, 2011, 01:12:15 PM
And yes, I am thinking about refining our offers including rates. You will hear from us in the next 7-10 days.
Cool!
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