Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 9, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
As price continues to struggle in this 580 - 600 $ resistance area, the fact that there hasn't been a breakdown out of this range yet is somewhat encouraging. That said, the technicals remain mixed on most timeframes and the fundamentals are still uncertain regarding Bitfinex, so at this time we think the market stays in a rather tight range. If price can break above 600 $ then the key 630 $ resistance level will likely come into play, and if not then we think we will revisit the bottom of the pivot area around 560 $. Either way, there remain a lack of favorable setups on either the long or the short side at current levels so we will wait for the market to give us a hint as to directionality over the next few days.
Today we zoom in slightly via the 6-hour chart below to try to glean some clues as to where we might be headed over the course of this week. We can see that price is still trapped up in this OTE short zone, pivot area, and volume profile mini-PoC, while SCMR continues to paint neutral candles. Also notice that the medium term uptrend line remains intact and is rising up to meet the top of the demand area at the key 520 $ level. We also still have an OTE long zone down in the 500 $ region so if price can manage to get back down there then we will be buyers of that dip.
Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy is now officially overbought, RSI is struggling to get over the centerline, and MACD has correct back to zero despite no big price moves. Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is flatlining once again, the 200-period SMA is now firmly in a downtrend, and the A/D line is still creeping higher but is hitting resistance. Lastly, sell volumes still seem to be outweighing buy volumes even though there has been a noticeable decrease in overall trading volume, and volume profile could use some filling in at both higher and lower levels.
At this time the market is in gridlock between 580 - 600 $ so until this range is broken one way or the other we will remain in a holding pattern within this area. As we have been saying for many weeks now this remains a "buy the dips, sell the rips" market until further notice, so we will continue to watch the 500 - 550 $ region for long setups and the 600 - 630 $ area to take profit or get short. Having said that, buys in the low 500's $ are longer term plays for a potential resolution out of this consolidation, and any shorts put on are very near term in nature and should be considered high risk. Even still, there could be some good opportunities in the not too distant future.
GLGT!
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