Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 72.

DarkEmi

full member

Activity: 223

Merit: 100

@molecular :
I took the time to go out of newbie status just to answer you

This is actually quite funny, because i "invented" the same trading algorithm as you this summer (with the basis principal of BTC_value = $)

I tought that it was a very good idea, and wanted to toy with this on real market as well (using 2 stocks that would have good variance and low risk of ruin)

I wonder if variants of this are used by "real" trading compagnies.

In my opinion the risk of ruin (i mean the risk of the value going near 0) for both asset HAS to be low, because this strategy is basically a variant of buying when something goes down.

I havent used it however yet because I bough quite some coin > 10$ and I dont really like to change half of them into $ with a loss, but thats definitely something I would like to try.

Edit : I want to do something like 70% bitcoin 30% $ as I am long with bitcoins.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: kokjo on December 16, 2011, 04:56:20 AM

Quote from: notme on December 16, 2011, 04:35:03 AM

Quote from: kokjo on December 16, 2011, 03:59:46 AM

Quote from: notme on December 15, 2011, 06:23:56 PM

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.

it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

So with a constraint? You mean like I said?

yes yes. what ever, but its a very logical constraint, and obvious needed

Obviously. My implementation implemented a minimum amount that had to be traded and could be set.

Of course the bot looses on fees, but it also gains on reversals.

I should make a simulation and feed it with historical BTC/USD data.

BTCurious

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 504

^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Discussion is moot. The constraint was specified by molecular in his very first post on this idea. See bolded part:

Quote from: molecular on December 14, 2011, 09:06:34 AM

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

* =

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

kokjo

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

You are WRONG!

Quote from: notme on December 16, 2011, 04:35:03 AM

Quote from: kokjo on December 16, 2011, 03:59:46 AM

Quote from: notme on December 15, 2011, 06:23:56 PM

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.

it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

So with a constraint? You mean like I said?

yes yes. what ever, but its a very logical constraint, and obvious needed

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: kokjo on December 16, 2011, 03:59:46 AM

Quote from: notme on December 15, 2011, 06:23:56 PM

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.

it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

So with a constraint? You mean like I said?

kokjo

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

You are WRONG!

Quote from: notme on December 15, 2011, 06:23:56 PM

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.

it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility. But if you restrict it to only buy when oversold and only sell when it's overbought and you should do pretty well.

jojkaart

member

Activity: 97

Merit: 10

Quote from: barbarousrelic on December 15, 2011, 02:52:07 PM

Quote from: BTCurious on December 15, 2011, 10:31:57 AM

Quote from: barbarousrelic on December 15, 2011, 09:37:44 AM

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.

I don't see why this should be so.

Ah, I misunderstood what you intended the bot to do. You would never run out of either Bitcoin or dollars, but as the price varied further from the price you were trying to stabilize to, your bot would become asymptotically less effective at moving the price.

You're still misunderstanding, the bot has no price it's trying to stabilize to. It only reacts to rebalance the equation by selling or buying when the price changes.

barbarousrelic

hero member

Activity: 675

Merit: 502

Quote from: BTCurious on December 15, 2011, 10:31:57 AM

Quote from: barbarousrelic on December 15, 2011, 09:37:44 AM

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.

I don't see why this should be so.

Ah, I misunderstood what you intended the bot to do. You would never run out of either Bitcoin or dollars, but as the price varied further from the price you were trying to stabilize to, your bot would become asymptotically less effective at moving the price.

BTCurious

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 504

^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: barbarousrelic on December 15, 2011, 09:37:44 AM

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.

I don't see why this should be so.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Also true, unless you add constraints to when it's "allowed" to trade.

barbarousrelic

hero member

Activity: 675

Merit: 502

Quote from: molecular on December 14, 2011, 09:06:34 AM

Quote from: old_engineer on December 13, 2011, 10:25:46 PM

Quote from: cbeast on December 13, 2011, 08:45:34 PM

I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.

It's not entirely magnanimous since I just cashed out at a slight profit, making up for all my losses on the way down from $17. But it'll be nice to not watch the charts like a hawk for a while, kind of looking forward to it, really.

Quote from: ineededausername on December 13, 2011, 09:15:45 PM

We found the ~~Manipulator~~ Stabilizer! Cheesy

It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

* =

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 14, 2011, 10:50:33 PM

Yeah, I wasn't thinking. It would only be a problem if exchange rate were static.
When in actuality, if it drops, bot buys. If it goes up, bot sells.
Derp! Roll Eyes

Right, and in general, any strategy is essentially

BTC*RATE = A*USD

Where A or alpha is less than 1 for a "short bitcoin" strategy and greater than 1 for a "long bitcoin" strategy.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: molecular on December 14, 2011, 05:46:26 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 14, 2011, 12:10:48 PM

What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!! Shocked

No, but you might hear a relieved sigh and a voice from the off (imagine Rick Falkvinges deep, slow, drawn out intonation and scandinavian accent here): "aaaah --- finally --- equilibrium"

Quote from: notme on December 14, 2011, 08:38:20 PM

I would assume the bot would simply wait for it to unbalance

Yeah, I wasn't thinking. It would only be a problem if exchange rate were static.
When in actuality, if it drops, bot buys. If it goes up, bot sells.
Derp! Roll Eyes

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 14, 2011, 12:10:48 PM

Quote from: molecular on December 14, 2011, 09:06:34 AM

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

* =

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!! Shocked

I would assume the bot would simply wait for it to unbalance

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on December 14, 2011, 12:10:48 PM

What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!! Shocked

No, but you might hear a relieved sigh and a voice from the off (imagine Rick Falkvinges deep, slow, drawn out intonation and scandinavian accent here): "aaaah --- finally --- equilibrium"

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: molecular on December 14, 2011, 09:06:34 AM

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

* =

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!! Shocked

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: old_engineer on December 13, 2011, 10:25:46 PM

Quote from: cbeast on December 13, 2011, 08:45:34 PM

I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.

It's not entirely magnanimous since I just cashed out at a slight profit, making up for all my losses on the way down from $17. But it'll be nice to not watch the charts like a hawk for a while, kind of looking forward to it, really.

Quote from: ineededausername on December 13, 2011, 09:15:45 PM

We found the ~~Manipulator~~ Stabilizer! Cheesy

It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

* =

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

old_engineer

sr. member

Activity: 387

Merit: 250

Quote from: notme on December 14, 2011, 05:50:47 AM

Hey, maybe you can buy back in sooner than you expected... we just lost a dime or two.

I'm peanuts compared to these guys with 20-50k btc walls. They set the price, and I work within the price they set. My modus operandi of 100-300 btc buys is just noise.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: old_engineer on December 14, 2011, 05:34:43 AM

Quote from: BTCurious on December 14, 2011, 04:51:46 AM

Quote from: old_engineer on December 13, 2011, 10:25:46 PM

Quote from: ineededausername on December 13, 2011, 09:15:45 PM

We found the ~~Manipulator~~ Stabilizer! Cheesy

It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.

Can I subscribe to your newsletter to find out when you're occupied?

Hah, I hadn't realized that my goal of a boring market would impact speculators that want volatility, and would get bored watching a line that doesn't move. Sometimes I feel dense.

Looks like 2 days without a rise was enough to curb the enthusiasm, and the price has actually dropped a little. The weekend is coming! The weekend is coming!

Hey, maybe you can buy back in sooner than you expected... we just lost a dime or two.

Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 72. (Read 540249 times)