Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 82. (Read 540249 times)

Haha, good answer. Was thinking along these lines but didn't manage to come up with this.

lol. good point

Yeah woke up to a nice surprise this morning, was expecting a drop but not that big and fast.  Now to decide on the future.  I expect there may be a mini rally, but it certainly won't go back to 3. 

put 20 BTC on bitcoinica, sold 96, won 35.

-> ROI of 275% 

i am now shortterm bull with 20 BTC, after a rebounce i expect to happen very soon, i will be short again.

best thing: i feel like i gained alot of market/trading experience within a very short time.

Hope some of you were lucky enough to have shorted when everyone else was warning of a reversal and BIG squeeze.  If you did, congrats on your winnings.

What a fuckin hypocrisy is that. I am usually attacked when I state that some early adopters are sitting on too many coins (In terms of the percentage of the supply not the total amount)

The same people now whine about 'manipulation' ... What are they supposed to do? Sit on them till they are old and gray so your coins have all the purchasing power?

damn, I am beginning to understand the reason of why to dump this shit down.

Since when is manipulation of markets not natural? Look at GLD


nice spin!

> "Bitcoin prices fell strongly, which was as expected"

Well, this wasn't natural, it was due to manipulation.
So how could you have expected this, unless *you* are the manipulator.

November 15, 2011: Interim Bitcoin Charts Update
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html

i wanted to suggest im not that much into trading theories i study them since about a year or so, out of interest and cause im a socioeconomy-student, but i rather call it "yo da elliot stuff, mate!1!1!!" than trolling around and posing as tradingspecialist^^

Well gosh, I just don't know how to counter this intelligent discussion about "elliot-wave stuff".  You must be right.  BUY BUY BUY! 

im into bitcoins for about one and a half month or so,..

i can't share your pessimistic point of view, i think it will once drop lower than 2, or maybe even then 1, but then we see a big trend reversal, as suggested by the elliot-wave stuff beeing around here in the forum.

serious: who of you would NOT be tempted to buy maaaany bitcoins when they hit $0,999? you proudhon?

Shorting bitcoin has been a good way to go for the past 5 months.  5 months from now I'm confident we'll be even lower (< $1), so even shorting now will probably turn out profitable.

asks vastly outnumber bids. 3$ bidwall was broken, is now a askwall.

..was a good decicion to go short on bitcoinica a week ago

It will be for a while as well

I created that superimposition, not to predict prices, but to show that if NASDAQ saw a bubble in 2000, then so did bitcoin experience a bubble in June. Time scales be damned!


I have mixed feelings about how the hack fits into analysis. I think the instantaneous price drop needs to be removed from the graph, however, its effect on price was very real and can not be ignored. The hack was a legitimate sell-off in so far as real bitcoin orders (buys) were triggered, however it does not represent the actions of the herd. If someone set off a bomb on the NYSE businesses would continue to function more or less as normal.


Call it what you like. Those patterns exist in all markets on all time scales. Volatility is predictably greater for newly spawned assets. If you correctly observe rate of change (logarithmic axes), then bitcoin price action displays nothing atypical.


It ended months ago. Bubbles are symmetrical at best or crash with greater slope than ascent at worst. Bitcoin has experienced a very typical correction the past five months.

Whoa, that's not what I meant. First of all, I compare nothing of NASDAQ after 2003, only the last big rally and the time where the market is not in "bubble destruction mode". Also, the comparison needs multiple corrections. I wouldn't expect Bitcoin to be as close as the NASDAQ and DJIA bubble were between one another, simply because the timings in the digital age are heavily distorted, Bitcoin is much smaller, and even with that said, everything happened at blazing speed in the first half of this year.

Timing issues I expect:

• Bitcoin is illiquid. Times in which the price appears very stuck, especially until a real bust started in August, should not be considered much in comparison with the much more liquid NASDAQ.
• Similarly, the MtGox hack is something one cannot just throw in there. It probably delayed the process, just cutting it in as natural is most likely not a valid approach.
• These saw-tooth like down-up spikes are distorted because of Bitcoin's extreme timing. What is important is that a similar pattern repeats a few times, and includes a characteristic drop, turnaround, and vain rally multiple times and on similar time-scales.
• I personally would not match the "bursting" phase of initial sell-offs with the same scale factor as that of the following "bust" phase, where price is repeatedly lowered in spiky price curves. They have different psychological components that might have changed separately: during the "bursting", the inflow of people and their reaction time to a changed scenario is important, which is much faster in an internet-driven community. But in the bust phase, panic thresholds and the time people take to change their minds is important, which has not changed as much. Thus, in Bitcoin, the bust phase appears longer compared to the initial bursting.

The point of this wasn't to become an exact price prophet, but rather to make qualitative forecasts on price. After the superexponential breakout, prices were very likely to drop, and after that had happened, the following rallies ended in that typical bust-pattern, each attempt to return driven down by the great bears until all denial was destroyed.

It's cheating to match the graphs in a non-trivial way in retrospect, so I won't. Also, it's quite extreme to intend predicting an exact price curve. This analogy was good enough to make predictions on expectation value, that is, produce money on average. In my case, it saved me from massive losses, and gained me a little in day-trading. I know it working once doesn't prove a thing, but once you "get" what the analogy is about, it is quite striking IMO. I wanted to test it again on silver -- I was quite frustrated my order on put options wasn't executed, just before the 40-30 drop.

Anyways, I'll shut up on this now, as it's a thing of the past now. Bitcoin "bubble mode" might have ended already. At least I can't use the analogy to predict when, or if, the trend stops now. All I want to say is: I think this was more than a coincidental similarity.

I see your double and raise you a triple. How about another zig-zag or a triangle finale?

Impressive!

I should have written this more precisely. What I meant was that last week, prices reached the target with the high of 3.83 $.


Here is the short term alert that I gave to subscribers on Oct 21, 2011:
"As forecast, bitcoin prices broke out from the declining wedge and
gained 20% in short time.
Now, a sustained rise above 2.6 - 2.7 $ will open up much more upside
potential (see attached chart).

Stop loss remains just under 2.04-2$ $ (major support), while the 2.45
(62h moving average) and 2.3 $ also provide support now.

We will turn mid or long term bullish after a break above 4 $."

and the attached chart