Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 86.

proudhon

legendary

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Quote from: Litt on October 20, 2011, 01:40:39 PM

Quote from: S3052 on October 20, 2011, 10:36:54 AM

correct. 2$ is very strong as support and may spark a reversal.

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.

If we can just get enough people to cause that spark for the rest of us then it would be perfect. I guess I'm too chicken to buy bitcoin myself right now. Because I definitely don't wanna be the guy to catch the falling knife right now after that scary drop down.

If enough people buy bitcoins to strongly rally past $3.5 or something, I may consider buying back in. The wall doesn't give me any piece of mind since the same 50k bitcoin wall at $6 and $4.8 went down like nothing when it was time. $2.2-2.3 semms like the the new $4.8 and even if it bounces now, it won't be more than a day or two long until it's right back down again.

But as long as someone else buys enough bitcoins to get this going then I think everyone will be happy about the reversal. People can finally be bullish and happy again.

lol, love the logic here - somebody else buy, and then I will. If that's the reasonable thing for you to do, why shouldn't it be the reasonable thing for everyone else? In which case, nobody will buy.

Litt

sr. member

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Quote from: S3052 on October 20, 2011, 10:36:54 AM

correct. 2$ is very strong as support and may spark a reversal.

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.

If we can just get enough people to cause that spark for the rest of us then it would be perfect. I guess I'm too chicken to buy bitcoin myself right now because I definitely don't wanna be the guy to catch the falling knife right now after that scary drop down.

If enough people buy bitcoins to strongly rally past $3.5 or something, I may consider buying back in. The wall doesn't give me any piece of mind since the same 50k bitcoin wall at $6 and $4.8 went down like nothing when it was time. $2.2-2.3 seems like it's the new $4.8 and even if it bounces now, it won't be more than a day or two long until it's right back down again.

But as long as someone else buys enough bitcoins to get this going then I think everyone will be happy about the reversal. People can finally be bullish and happy again.

S3052

legendary

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correct. 2$ is very strong as support and may spark a reversal.

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.

nmat

hero member

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Quote from: Technomage on October 20, 2011, 10:08:54 AM

I'm still on the fence here but if there is a third attempt and another bounce, it might just spark a much bigger bounce because the support at $2 can be said to be very strong at that point.

This is definitely interesting, if $2 support is that strong we might not see a new low at least in the short term. But for any longer term change I'm waiting for a low that stays as the low for at least a month.

I also agree with this and I would love to have a stable price for one month Cool

Technomage

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Quote from: S3052 on October 19, 2011, 05:23:43 PM

And if there is not another low soon, chances increase that a big bounce up happens soon , forcing short sellers to cover quickly.

I agree with this 100%. There have already been two attempts at breaking $2 and both times it bounced off and didn't break.

I'm still on the fence here but if there is a third attempt and another bounce, it might just spark a much bigger bounce because the support at $2 can be said to be very strong at that point.

This is definitely interesting, if $2 support is that strong we might not see a new low at least in the short term. But for any longer term change I'm waiting for a low that stays as the low for at least a month.

fivebells

sr. member

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I just mean that S is talking about possible bull runs again. Not "strong buy"s though. Sorry, was being a bit unfair.

fivebells

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Hahahaha. The clock has stopped again.

S3052

legendary

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Quote from: S3052 on October 19, 2011, 04:43:20 PM

agree with you. Elliott waves, if properly understood and used, can provide an edge.

Coming back to bitcoins, it seems that there may be another drop needed, probably taking out the 2$ mark and spike down hard before at least a short term bottom can be put in place.

And if there is not another low soon, chances increase that a big bounce up happens soon , forcing short sellers to cover quickly.

BitterTea

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Quote from: wndrbr3d on October 19, 2011, 04:53:08 PM

I think something to keep in mind too is that even though a 6 cent price was sustained a year ago, there's waaaaaaaaaaaay more bitcoins in the chain now, so if bitcoin truly does crash down to the point where the 'core supporters' are the only ones left, I think even $0.06/BTC would be a bit much Wink

You're forgetting that there are more "core supporters" now than a year ago. I'm one of them.

wndrbr3d

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Quote from: N12 on October 19, 2011, 10:30:57 AM

This is the first time in BTC history that a major crash occured and there was no close with a bounce up in the daily chart, but instead settling in the area of the old low.

I’d say that is a clear confirmation of the broken long term trend. I could see Bitcoin’s spiral of price decrease => loss of interest continue further, as big early miners and speculators continue to take their profits, until the very core of Bitcoin supporters is left. I don’t know when this could be, because I believe that even lots of the early Bitcoiners were only here due to the long term trend, and we know that 1 year ago, the people here sustained a price of 6 cents.

93% off the high, so far. Soon, we will see how much of Bitcoin is based on greed.

It is my opinion that if Bitcoin doesn’t recover, there will not be any worthy successor. We had one shot with the public.

I think something to keep in mind too is that even though a 6 cent price was sustained a year ago, there's waaaaaaaaaaaay more bitcoins in the chain now, so if bitcoin truly does crash down to the point where the 'core supporters' are the only ones left, I think even $0.06/BTC would be a bit much Wink

S3052

legendary

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agree with you. Elliott waves, if properly understood and used, can provide an edge.

Coming back to bitcoins, it seems that there may be another drop needed, probably taking out the 2$ mark and spike down hard before at least a short term bottom can be put in place.

netrin

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Quote from: dancupid on October 19, 2011, 09:52:44 AM

Elliot waves seem to me the same as looking at ink blots - you see what you need to see. If it wasn't just a matter of psychological projection a simple computer algorithm would be able to 'see' them.

Just like psychology, if enough of us believed it to be true, then it would be true. The small count (pink) is eye-ball symmetrical. Waves (I & II) and (c & a) have a fib relationship (based on my fat finger measurements). If bitcoin prices drop significantly below $1 (wave "d" and "e"/five count reversal), then bitcoins may soon be as valuable as my tears.

I can only make poor defense of Elliott waves, as I have little experience using them. But I think on monthly scales, bitcoin produces a compelling wave chart. With the long term support/trend unambiguously broken, there may not be a lot of TA alternatives. If I may quote Wikipedia:

Quote from: Wikipedia: Elliott Wave Principal

Wave 5: ... everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in ... some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest ...

Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

I'll also add that EWP serves as common ground for discussing bitcoin trends with some of the women in my life. So they aren't entirely useless.

N12

donator

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This is the first time in BTC history that a major crash occured and there was no close with a bounce up in the daily chart, but instead settling in the area of the old low.

I’d say that is a clear confirmation of the broken long term trend. I could see Bitcoin’s spiral of price decrease => loss of interest continue further, as big early miners and speculators continue to take their profits, until the very core of Bitcoin supporters is left. I don’t know when this could be, because I believe that even lots of the early Bitcoiners were only here due to the long term trend, and we know that 1 year ago, the people here sustained a price of 6 cents.

93% off the high, so far. Soon, we will see how much of Bitcoin is based on greed.

It is my opinion that if Bitcoin doesn’t recover, there will not be any worthy successor. We had one shot with the public.

dancupid

hero member

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Quote from: S3052 on October 19, 2011, 10:09:55 AM

I won't comment on the Elliott wave discussion, because everyone can decide themself to use or not use it, as for any other tool.

But coming back to the technical analysis, the downtrend is intense and inexperienced traders should be careful buying now .
They may be lucky to pick the bottom, but most probably not.
It would not be surprising to see another huge capitulation sell off drawing bitcoin prices well below 2$ and maybe even below 1$.
There are some expert traders in the game using big short selling etc.
Its a wild ride.

I'm very inexperienced - I'm just waiting for some good news, or killer app and an obvious trend, before I dip my toe in again - though I still fundamentally believe in this technology (or something similar - pandoras box has been opened and this or something like it is definitely the future)

S3052

legendary

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I won't comment on the Elliott wave discussion, because everyone can decide themself to use or not use it, as for any other tool.

But coming back to the technical analysis, the downtrend is intense and inexperienced traders should be careful buying now .
They may be lucky to pick the bottom, but most probably not.
It would not be surprising to see another huge capitulation sell off drawing bitcoin prices well below 2$ and maybe even below 1$.
There are some expert traders in the game using big short selling etc.
Its a wild ride.

dancupid

hero member

Activity: 955

Merit: 1002

Quote from: molecular on October 19, 2011, 08:26:18 AM

Quote from: speeder on October 19, 2011, 06:29:30 AM

Quote from: netrin on October 18, 2011, 11:43:34 PM

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

I found this:

Quote from: http://www.investopedia.com/university/advancedwave/default.asp#axzz1bEYOM7k5

There is a standard joke shared by technical analysts that if you were to put twelve Elliott Wave practitioners in a room, they would fail to reach an agreement on wave count and the direction in which a stock is headed.

Elliot waves seem to me the same as looking at ink blots - you see what you need to see. If it wasn't just a matter of psychological projection a simple computer algorithm would be able to 'see' them.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

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Quote from: speeder on October 19, 2011, 06:29:30 AM

Quote from: netrin on October 18, 2011, 11:43:34 PM

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

I found this:

Quote from: http://www.investopedia.com/university/advancedwave/default.asp#axzz1bEYOM7k5

There is a standard joke shared by technical analysts that if you were to put twelve Elliott Wave practitioners in a room, they would fail to reach an agreement on wave count and the direction in which a stock is headed.

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: speeder on October 19, 2011, 06:29:30 AM

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

Of course it may be correct? The question is "is it correct?". The answer is that nobody can possibly know that. What's more likely, given how bitcoin is not attracting new money is that it continues to fall.

speeder

hero member

Activity: 994

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Quote from: netrin on October 18, 2011, 11:43:34 PM

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

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