We havent even gotten over the major hurdle yet, and thats the current situation.
The whole xt news and bitcoin split can probably handicap this price value of every single persons suggestion on what it`ll be in the future.
Think of the now, rather then 14 years later. If people test the xt, and fail to see its any good thats when bitcoin will probably take a serious hit before any upward trend.
when i use $$ to buy bitcoin and then use that bitcoin to buy services or products, I see where bitcoin limitations are: it is in fleecing that's going on.
Example:
1. buying bitcoin with $ on coinbase (not the exchange) results in 1% fee plus you pay the "coinbase" price that is typically 0.5% higher.
So, for every $1 in bitcoin, you spend 1.5c more.
2. you are buying from merchant using bitpay and suddenly you end up paying 0.8-1.5% more (maybe because bitpay consistently uses lower price than coinbase)
3. bottom line: it routinely cost you 1+0.5+0.8=2.3%, which is almost the same as paypal when merchant asks for the paypal extra (2.1%)
So, where is the price advantage?
It is nowhere to be seen and until ALL major bitcoin merchants will introduce 4-5% discount very few people would use bitcoin, unless other payment methods are much slower.
The best reason to buy Bitcoin is to protect yourself from what's coming. In my opinion only a fool would buy BTC in order to spend it right away. That is unless you needed to make a foreign transaction, or some type of purchase where a credit card wouldn't work well. The US dollar has nowhere to go but down in the long term. It's buying power continues to be eroded by many factors. Unsustainable debt, money printing/inflation, and increasing lack of confidence.
Growth of the Internet was exponentially slower than the growth of crypto. Each year Bitcoin's infrastructure grows leaps and bounds. Since there is a very limited supply of many crypto coins, and fiat continues to lose ground, the real winners are going to be those who hold their coins the longest. We see minimum wage moving towards $15 an hour in many states. It isn't hard to imagine where exchange rates will be in the near future.
My point is that bitcoin would not have spending utility if you are fleeced 2.1% extra if you want to buy something with it, but start with $$.
In such situation, transaction rates would not move much, limiting the growth of the whole ecosystem
Without serious purchasing utility, it is only a potential saving vehicle, but this thesis was severely tested in the last 21 mo.
It very well may be that btc/$$ exchange rate will increase in the future, but there is no indication for this yet.
I am still in favor of bitcoin odds in the long term, though.
Every investment has risks. In my opinion the massive list of positives for BTC far outweighs the decent size list of negatives.
We have perfect market conditions for a tidal wave of investment. So some of us may not have gotten in at the beginning, but compared to where prices have been BTC looks quite cheap. If you look at most market, or stocks that survive for the long term, previous highs are almost always exceeded. Especially where underlying fundamentals are still in play... Check on that one. Compared to most currencies, shares of stock, or rare commodities, BTC is extremely rare. If a bunch of investors decided they wanted to own one Bitcoin, that alone could send the price sky high. The other positive is liquidity, portability, and security, BTC wins against anything else I can think of. Patience will be the most important factor.
I agree 2.1% isn't cheap, but compared to credit cards, Western Union, and many others, it's a relative bargain when you consider the opportunity for price appreciation. BTC has many of the features of cash, and gold combined. Superior in most ways, and lacking in a few others. It certainly has a part to play in any forward thinking individuals portfolio...