Topic: Bitcoin halving and inflation (Read 250 times)

The fact of the matter is that you're making this out as if it's bitcoin's problem when it was not.

Bitcoin has its own economy that is not controlled or in any way whatsoever affiliated to the dollar. We saw this firsthand when the whole world's on the shitbox and it's pumping like crazy despite every asset losing value back then. This means that devaluation will only happen if bitcoin's innate value became lesser. Which would happen only if people are to sell all their bitcoins and dump the cryptocurrency king for another. It's the only plausible way I can think of that would satisfy this "bitcoin will become devalued" narrative since there's no real way for you to really devalue something whose economy is shut off from the rest of the world.

The bitcoin halving event next year alone is not going to lead to large price jumps. We have seen it in the past where after the halvings, where prices didn't move that much or even went lower. The problem is that if all investors expect prices to jump at a certain date and plan to take profits afterwards, then the expectations of the market is not going to meet reality. Who would be buying all these coins at a high price when the majority of investors want to take profits? This will lead to a price drop as investors compete to get out of bitcoins, or to realisation that it's not a good time to sell and people will keep holding their coins. That is why I would recommend not to get expectations too high as it could only lead to headaches. You seem to already expects for prices to drop, but why should the purchasing power of bitcoin drop? All the investors who already hold bitcoins will see an increase in the value of their holdings long term. After the halving of bitcoins, the price has to increase eventually, because all the miners now get less profits and might not distribute any new coins. If prices are too low to cover the cost and revenues of the miners, they will just hold on to their coins until prices rise. That is why the long term trend of bitcoin will remain positive and it's just a matter of time for the price to move up again.

Halvings reduce Bitcoin block rewards and Bitcoin future supply. Total supply is already 21 million bitcoins and will be gradually filled by new blocks till 2140. People who are new will look at block reward halves after a halving and less Future Bitcoin Supply to feel FOMO and hop on. It's FOMO effect from Bitcoin halvings even we all clearly know that total supply does not change and it is always 21 millions.

Future Bitcoin Supply

Thanks for the clarification on this topic of discussion, I should have been more precise about mentioning blockrates, and of course ATH happens one year after halving, I take correction of that fact. This is the reason why this forum is the best place to discuss about bitcoin, it is also a place where new members are tutored about everything that they need to know about bitcoin.

That's not what really happens. If it were, price won't ever slump after halving as we've seen it do after each ATH. If halving decreases supply, shouldn't it continue that way and price stays up? What drives Bitcoin price is sentiment. Most people believe that every halving year causes reward per block to decrease. There's FOMO around that event and so people get in the habit of longing to buy at all cost during the period. It's an expectation that increases buying pressure as people chase price up. This pressure soon dies off after halving.

Well, that will suffice while explaining it to a layman but in the practical reality that isn't what it's. It is the reward to block that reduces, not Bitcoin supply.

Demand is higher in bull market than in bear market but bull market is shorter than bear market. The growth of Bitcoin is very solid if we look how it became stronger after past three bear markets. New all time highs are great but even in bear markets, the latter one shows bigger trading volume and Bitcoin communities did not stop growing even in bear market.

Total supply does not change, halving does not change it. Halving only reduces future supply that is remaining bitcoins can be mined by miners. With less future supply and expected bigger demand when Bitcoin adoption will be bigger in future, people speculate that Bitcoin will continue to make its new all time highs.

As far as I can see you don't understand the basic principle of supply and demand. Bitcoin demand has been growing since its inception, with some ups and downs, but over the long term it has clearly grown. If demand remains constant or increases, which is what will continue to happen for the next few years, and supply decreases, the price increases. Halving reduces supply. Therefore, Bitcoiners expect the price to continue to rise, albeit with volatility because this is not a straight line.

So far Bitcoin returns have far outpaced inflation because it has proven to be the best financial asset in the world since 2009. And so we expect it to continue to be. I don't know if something else will be created in 10 years that will be better than Bitcoin but as of today it is unrivaled.

Go through these post and get answers you need. I'm sure you will.

Bitcoin price is dependent on the supply and demand, with Bitcoin having, it means that the Bitcoin incoming supply is cut by half and in trading we all know that when the supply is lessen while the demand stay the same, it will make the price go up. Thus the value or price of Bitcoin will increase.



You can verify if what you are thinking is wrong by researching the economics of BTC.  It will give answer to your question on how Bitcoin halving affects Bitcoin economics.

You can start by reading these articles:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-economics-of-bitcoin-halving-understanding-the-effects-on-price-and-market-sentiment
https://cointelegraph.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-how-does-the-halving-cycle-work-and-why-does-it-matter
https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

Bitcoin has always risen after the halving, but this doesn't guarantee the same rise in future halvings. When people project the future based on the past events, they expect such a rise. If this cycle breaks, you might be disappointed. Never invest amounts you can't afford to lose.
Yes, we are all waiting for Bitcoin to rise, we are all predicting a rise after the halving. But many different factors can affect the price of Bitcoin. Don't let halving be your only hope. Zoom out and look longer term. Even if this halving is lackluster, the next one might be better. Bitcoin has always experienced new ATHs, there is no one who cannot earn from Bitcoin in the long run. Don't sell at loss, ever.

Exactly, this halving news everywhere has already created FOMO amongst people that will not like to miss out, and this will lead some people to take loans for investment thinking there is an assurance of making that money back during halving, which is totally wrong because there has been advice given out here that "we should only invest the amount we can afford to lose" and any money we borrow is something we cannot afford losing; and just as you said, "there is no technical reason for bitcoin price pumping during halving." Therefore, the best thing to do now is to keep investing if you have capital and have a plan of holding your bitcoin for the long term.

A lot of halving threads have been created. It's actually hype, which will create a FOMO. So everyone will assume a pump of Bitcoin. So credit will undoubtedly go to halving for this pump. There is no technical reason for the pump; halving makes sure supply is working fine and miners rewards will reduce. However, for a long time, Bitcoin hasn't been pumping, so most likely it's preparing for a pump that would happen near halving. I think it's the best time to accumulate from our ends. Bitcoin is almost stable now and not much volatile lately, and that's the symptoms of the pump.

As franky1 said it nicely, 1 year after the halving is the pumping season for bitcoin, but why wait? If you don't trust and believe in bitcoin's bright future then there is no profit for you, of course not everyone is bitcoin for profit as an investment, many people use it for the financial freedom without any central authority monitoring their transactions and asking questions.

But yeah, buying before halving is a good strategy, though you should be ready to see $10,000 or even lower after some time post halving, so be ready and don't let your hands shake while waiting out the market winter.

"Past performance does not always indicative of future results"

While it is highly probable that we will hit an all time high, there is no guarantee that we actually would and with more halvings the probability keeps dropping.

Thirty or fourth years from now when the mining reward is already much less than 1BTC, the impact of halving on the price will be much less than it is today.

I really like your optimistic mindset about BTC but you should not take things for granted, because it is a crypto industry, things happen here that you might not have imagined. So play only with what you aren't afraid to lose. And who says the next year will be profitable? You did do some research on finding when the halving took place but you did not check how much time it took BTC to reach ATH after every halving.

For your easiness, every ATH took almost 1.2 years after halving, and if we take this factor in mind, then we can also say, that the halving will take place in 2024 and the ATH might occur in 2025. But who knows, because the market is so unexpected. All we can do is take measures to book as much profit as we can and should accumulate as much BTC as we can do but don't forget to manage some emergency funds for you. Because they are important beyond your expectations.

I think you are a little confused here or unable to convey your message completely. Either way, BTC will not lose its value over time due to the scarcity factor. And why do you think that BTC will gradually lose its value due to halving, because due to halving their will be more demand over supply and the value will increase. And BTC is a deflationary token --> A hedge against inflation. Then how BTC can become inflationary in itself? Please elaborate more.

Is it April precisely or a month before or after, am not sure if the exact month is yet predicted when this will occur, but we have that assurance that it will happen and this is one of the confidence all bitcoin investors have and waited upon because there will always be a new all time high following the event of halving experience.


Yes, we have truly have the assurance of halving next year but still yet we have to consider the period as a highly volatile bitcoin market season whereby we must use the chart to know the bearing of the market price to help position our holding time more accurately for profitability, the chart will guide on when to buy, hold and release, at halving, we have both bear and bull market altogether and the two are fast changing and unpredictable, so we need to make use of the chart to speculate and study the trend.

Devaluation of currencies will not happen due to halving and its effect on Bitcoin. What will happen is a raised valuation of the coin, and the currency that will be most affected is the USD which will also not fall in value as people might seem but will have an adjustment against Bitcoin due to the appreciated value. This is not a currency devaluation but an asset increasing in its own value.

You are mixing things together, Bitcoin halving is a tradition that will always happen and people tend to invest more money in the coin due to that, which in turn leads to its appreciation in price/value.

This will always not have any negative effect on Bitcoin itself but enrich the investors to further help fight inflation in fiats and have more power over their purchases.

Just because this happened few times in the past, it doesn't automatically mean that 100% we gona experience the same thing again. Beliveing that next year bitcoin price will pump for sure might make some people do very risky things, like taking a loan from bank. I mean, chances are that we will excperience new ATH sometimes after halvening, but its not a smart thing to set some dates.


How can it be inflation if rate of how much bitcoin has been mined is cut in half? Based on what you wrote, I don't think that you fully understand what bitcoin havleving is so I suggest you to check a little bit more on the subject.

he is speaking of the blockrate in thousands..
halvings happen at the:
210,000th block
420,000th block
630,000th block
840,000th block

as for his other mentions of the price.. the actual impact of the halving does not result in a ATH until a year after the halving

EG first market price 2010, first ATH 2011
first halving 2012, next ATH 2013
next halving 2016, next ATH 2017
next halving 2020, next ATH 2021
next halving 2024, expected next ATH 2025

What will lead to a decrease in the value is a decrease in forecasting. If you notice that the price throughout this period was stable between $20,000 to $30,000 and in the past between $3,000 to $6,000. Thus, halving does not only lead to an increase in prices, but to the stability of prices in a new range that is often higher than ATH for the previous session, so instead of starting to speculate that the price will exceed $100,000, let us be realistic and say that in the coming years the average price of Bitcoin will be higher than $70,000 to $90,000.

There are also connections to price and mining. If the price drops below the cost of mining, the number of miners will decrease, and thus it is an opportunity for more to buy and vice versa.

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