It would be an anomaly if the price of bitcoin doesn't rise even before and after the halving. It would be the first time it would ever happen, but then this is not going to happen because history always repeats itself. The
first bitcoin halving event was on November 28, 2012, bitcoin price rose up to $12.3. In the second bitcoin halving on July 9, 2016, the price increased to $680 and in the third halving on May 11, 2020 bitcoin's price increased to $8,590. You can see that historical evidences. Since that time the interest of the public and institutions in bitcoin has grown. Therefore, we will see a gradual increase in the price of Bitcoin before, during and after the halving in 2024.
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www.bitcoinsensus.com/bitcoin-halving-countdown/* coinpedia.org/beginners-guide/what-is-bitcoin-halving/
Good analysis from someone conversant with the historic data of Bitcoin. Indeed, Bitcoin have shown great consistency in growth every halving season and I don't envisage any difference in the coming one. Another thing is that we usually have a new ATH the year after halving, this is the reason many people are of the opinion that 2025 might be the year for the huge price surge following the prevailing market cycle. So, the halving will set the stage for the massive price rise that is expected to happen the following year.
Furthermore, putting your analysis in percentages shows that Bitcoin rose as much as 5428% from 2012 to 2016 and 1163% from 2016 to 2020 whereas we had the If we go in this direction, then I expect price to peak around $120k which is around 200% from the ATH.
Nevertheless, like I always advice people, it is better to keep an open mind as nothing is guaranteed in life.