Bitcoin halving, how low the price can be? - page 3.

Distinctin

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Quote from: Nrcewker on March 29, 2024, 07:43:49 AM

Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

The max it can go low is 50k usd. It won’t fall below it. The reason for which I am so confident is that, as Bitcoins will go down, more people will start buying it. Moreover we know that Bitcoins are fixed in numbers, hence if more people will buy it then the price to accumulate it will increase, leading to increase the demand. Hence as the demand is high and supply is less, automatically the price will go up. Hence, 50k will be the lowest price possible this halving. Now let’s see what happens.

I might agree with that. Bitcoin price will eventually experience another price correction from this current surge, probably before halving, so setting $50k as the lowest price possible is actually what majority are expecting to see. Although there might be surprises along the way, and it’s difficult to say that we are certain with our prediction, but seeing how bitcoin price moves in the market and considering its law of supply and demand, then as much as people hope for bitcoin price to fall so they can start buying, eventually the price will go up again when the demand sets to increase.

Oasisman

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Quote from: Wolf_of_Wallstreet on March 29, 2024, 09:25:49 AM

Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

But why 50k$ or not 40k$ or 60k$? There will be no specific numbers when it comes to bitcoin because bitcoins fluctuations do not completely depend on supply and demand. Bitcoin prices are still largely manipulated, and the price of bitcoin is determined by market makers . I don't believe in supply and demand at this stage as bitcoin is still too small and too easily manipulated . But personally I don't think they will let bitcoin fall before the halving, the price will continue to increase and will reach ATH before the halving occurs.

From a historical, technical perspective it could drop down to 25k or even 20k, as we started a run up to 15k in the very beginning and reached a bearish position down to 3k, which is 1/5 from that first high.
Another bull run went all the way up to about 57k and dropped back to 15k, which again is about 1/4 of the second reached high.
So if we expect a new bullrun to reach ~200k, a drop to a max of 40k could be realistic. Should a bullrun end already on a 100k, then a drop as mentioned above (25-20k) could be an option also.
IMHO after this halving we probably wont see anything below 20k again. Wink

And Im very optimistic that we will cut the 100k on BTC this upcoming halving with this extraordinary greed right now.
Btw we have already reached the alltime high on BTC, correct me if Im wrong Grin

$20k - $25k is realistically possible of course that is based on the previous halving. But some are actually hoping to see a price floor of $10k especially those who was not able to maximize their opportunity to get more fragments.
However, we might not be able to see a sharp decline in the next several months. We might be able to see it around 2025 after everything in the bull market subsides.
The question currently is, whether or not bitcoin will surely get to 6 digits in the post halving.

Wolf_of_Wallstreet

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

But why 50k$ or not 40k$ or 60k$? There will be no specific numbers when it comes to bitcoin because bitcoins fluctuations do not completely depend on supply and demand. Bitcoin prices are still largely manipulated, and the price of bitcoin is determined by market makers . I don't believe in supply and demand at this stage as bitcoin is still too small and too easily manipulated . But personally I don't think they will let bitcoin fall before the halving, the price will continue to increase and will reach ATH before the halving occurs.

From a historical, technical perspective it could drop down to 25k or even 20k, as we started a run up to 15k in the very beginning and reached a bearish position down to 3k, which is 1/5 from that first high.
Another bull run went all the way up to about 57k and dropped back to 15k, which again is about 1/4 of the second reached high.
So if we expect a new bullrun to reach ~200k, a drop to a max of 40k could be realistic. Should a bullrun end already on a 100k, then a drop as mentioned above (25-20k) could be an option also.
IMHO after this halving we probably wont see anything below 20k again. Wink

And Im very optimistic that we will cut the 100k on BTC this upcoming halving with this extraordinary greed right now.
Btw we have already reached the alltime high on BTC, correct me if Im wrong Grin

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Quote from: Nrcewker on March 29, 2024, 07:43:49 AM

Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

The max it can go low is 50k usd. It won’t fall below it. The reason for which I am so confident is that, as Bitcoins will go down, more people will start buying it. Moreover we know that Bitcoins are fixed in numbers, hence if more people will buy it then the price to accumulate it will increase, leading to increase the demand. Hence as the demand is high and supply is less, automatically the price will go up. Hence, 50k will be the lowest price possible this halving. Now let’s see what happens.

But why 50k$ or not 40k$ or 60k$? There will be no specific numbers when it comes to bitcoin because bitcoins fluctuations do not completely depend on supply and demand. Bitcoin prices are still largely manipulated, and the price of bitcoin is determined by market makers . I don't believe in supply and demand at this stage as bitcoin is still too small and too easily manipulated . But personally I don't think they will let bitcoin fall before the halving, the price will continue to increase and will reach ATH before the halving occurs.

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

about the lowest price? i don't think i can comment on that but I will it will go down to 50k at least because that is my rebuying position and i will wait for that but about the highest price ? I believe we will going to see 6 digits means lowest of 100k to be the target.
we have seen more than the previews ATH while we are waiting for the halving.

Nrcewker

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

The max it can go low is 50k usd. It won’t fall below it. The reason for which I am so confident is that, as Bitcoins will go down, more people will start buying it. Moreover we know that Bitcoins are fixed in numbers, hence if more people will buy it then the price to accumulate it will increase, leading to increase the demand. Hence as the demand is high and supply is less, automatically the price will go up. Hence, 50k will be the lowest price possible this halving. Now let’s see what happens.

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I do not think that it will be that low. I can see that price dropped before the halving last time, but that happened already, we have seen 65k and lower, which means that we are going to end up with nothing big. I feel like the most important part of this period would just be relaxing and letting the market recover. Look at it, it's already back to 70k which means that the drop before the halving we expected already happened and we are not seeing anything else.

We should probably consider the possibility of making a better situation happen, and we could probably see the situation change eventually. So the next up is bull run, with halving out of the way, it should be doing better and not really do that worse.

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Quote from: EL MOHA on March 27, 2024, 05:59:34 PM

Quote from: oktana on March 27, 2024, 05:44:29 PM

Of course it is. It could take time to go up further, I don’t really have much speculation there. But it terms of the price coming down, I don’t see how that can happen in just a couple of months after the halving (unless some bad news ensue). Many people are probably hoping to sell immediately after the halving but it’s possible that it’ll take a while just like you said.

The fundamentals are seriously changing the market this time around and it’s effect are seeing. I personally do not see a huge pump right after the halving and not much of a fall too. I think we might see a consolidating Marketing where the price doesn’t move much from his position. Currently there is a strong resistance at $72k and a support at $67k now. This two regions have been tested numerous time and the demand wasn’t able to breakthrough the resistance level while the supply also doesn’t have much sellers to break that barrier.

Price to me will remain like this until a strong fundamental narrative gets it to pump more and then we could witness a price of $80k but if it’s the reverse then we can see the support of even $56k getting tested

I’m not sure of where the support really is but for the resistance, I think it’s $70k IMO. Numerous times that has always been where the problem lies. It goes up and gets there but can’t exceed it. And even if it doesn’t, nothing really above it. Currently it’s $70,600 which still falls under the $70k. If we can’t break the resistance, we’re likely not going to touch ATH in a while.

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

Within the year of the halving, I'd probably bet that $120k ish? would be the highest. Maybe even $150k if I'm going to be highly optimistic about it. It going down though, idk, I don't think it has any limit to that. I'd probably expect it to go down to $15k and anything beyond that would have to be determined after it happens instead of determining it now. That's after all the pumps though since we usually experience a pretty large dump after a high pump. But well that's like probably a year or more later on, nothing to worry about for now imo.

$weetne$$

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

Do you mean the correction that might follow after the Bitcoin halving is over or are you referring to how low will Bitcoin go before the halving. I think we aren't going any lower before the halving as the buying pressure is going to start coming in as we get closer to Bitcoin halving and for how far the price can go, there's an unlimited amount of prediction that we can predict about the market because everybody has their own prediction from the analysis that they have done. I have also done my own and I think we'll be trading very high too. Let see how high Bitcoin will pump before the halving, I'm expecting the price to be above $80,000 before the halving as we're already above $70,000 then Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 after the halving short term. The highest price isn't yet known but it should be higher.

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

If we base on this chart, the lowest it will go is $12,000 until this cycle on the current Bitcoin block halving.
But that number seems impossible now, we have less than a month left.

What I am waiting for is the next giga pump at any moment, as you can see, we already creating support in $68,000 - $70,000.

EL MOHA

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Quote from: oktana on March 27, 2024, 05:44:29 PM

Of course it is. It could take time to go up further, I don’t really have much speculation there. But it terms of the price coming down, I don’t see how that can happen in just a couple of months after the halving (unless some bad news ensue). Many people are probably hoping to sell immediately after the halving but it’s possible that it’ll take a while just like you said.

The fundamentals are seriously changing the market this time around and it’s effect are seeing. I personally do not see a huge pump right after the halving and not much of a fall too. I think we might see a consolidating Marketing where the price doesn’t move much from his position. Currently there is a strong resistance at $72k and a support at $67k now. This two regions have been tested numerous time and the demand wasn’t able to breakthrough the resistance level while the supply also doesn’t have much sellers to break that barrier.

Price to me will remain like this until a strong fundamental narrative gets it to pump more and then we could witness a price of $80k but if it’s the reverse then we can see the support of even $56k getting tested

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Quote from: South Park on March 26, 2024, 04:39:25 PM

Quote from: oktana on March 26, 2024, 04:20:40 PM

Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

I’m seeing some really wild guesses here and I’m hopeful they happen. Nonetheless I think that if it’s going low, it should go no lower than $60k. And if it must go below $60k, no lower than $55k! As for going up, I’m not sure to put a limit on that. But maybe we can see just about $80k-$90k but that doesn’t mean we can’t see higher, because looking at the price today, who would have thought we would get an ATH that quick.

It is also possible the halving and the weeks after are relatively quiet, after all the price has already gone up in a significant way prior to it, so it is likely the halving itself is already priced in by traders and it could take months for the market to gain enough momentum to begin to go up again, not that it bothers me as this is probably the last period of accumulation before the bull run appears on its full glory, and we need to take advantage of it before we see bitcoin surpassing six figures.

Of course it is. It could take time to go up further, I don’t really have much speculation there. But it terms of the price coming down, I don’t see how that can happen in just a couple of months after the halving (unless some bad news ensue). Many people are probably hoping to sell immediately after the halving but it’s possible that it’ll take a while just like you said.

bangjoe

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Quote from: Gozie51 on March 27, 2024, 08:32:00 AM

Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

The speculation for the bull run proper is around $150,000 and this is by popular assumption. So I also feel this is going to be a realistic standpoint if we go by the history of the price during ATH where it was doubled after every four years and some it was trippled like the last halving.

So the expectation is more of bull than bear although in between there could be a correction but since that will not be the trend, the price will keep going up until it reach a resistant point where it will find a falling point back to where it starts preparing for another halving.

$150k is too far in my opinion, some negative sentiment towards the market is now quite emerging, we cannot look at technical or speculative assumptions two months before it happens, we also have to look at market movements and market sentiment in adjustments that may be achieved by bitcoin because the market can change in seconds even though the trend supports bullish but rampant FUD it will reverse the trend.
If it is calculated to be at $80k-$90k it is more than enough for the halving phase this time in my opinion, yes if it reaches $150k I am quite grateful but we must stick to the realities that may occur in the market. If you look at the scale of the bitcoin rainbow chart which is getting smaller and smaller as the price gets higher it will give a little explanation on the level of fluctuation of the increase.

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

The speculation for the bull run proper is around $150,000 and this is by popular assumption. So I also feel this is going to be a realistic standpoint if we go by the history of the price during ATH where it was doubled after every four years and some it was trippled like the last halving.

So the expectation is more of bull than bear although in between there could be a correction but since that will not be the trend, the price will keep going up until it reach a resistant point where it will find a falling point back to where it starts preparing for another halving.

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on March 26, 2024, 02:03:32 PM

This is the craziest level I've seen of Bitcoin in its circle. At the moment it's over 80% and the
https://feargreedmeter.com which I use calls it Extreme Greed. The market is very much active and excited.

I did not know about that site but it is a Fear and Greed meter for cryptocurrency market, not for Bitcoin only.

Their meter point is 83 now and that site considers it as Extremely Greed. I don't feel strange as each site has its own formula and criteria to calculate the meter and define its meter categories.

https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/FearGreedIndex
The index here is 83 points and marked as Extremely Greed too.

Gladitorcomeback

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

The market seems to be pretty positive at the moment, there isn't much negativity around, Bitcoin is moving up slowly once again, so I'm not expecting much of a dip at this point, however, we know how unpredictable the market is, it can always take a U-turn but even if it does that, it wouldn't go anywhere below $60k or in the worst case scenario, it might go up to $55k or something but that will be pretty low.

I'm optimistic that the upward movement during the bull run would make Bitcoin rally up to $100k pretty easily, and now that we have seen Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high so early, we can expect something blasting this time around and it is going to be pretty exciting. Tongue

salad daging

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That I don't know.

Before the halving already ATH
After the halving will soon be $100K.

I see the price going back to the current $70K path then probably the increase will definitely continue to happen maybe the demand is soaring right?

This approaching halving will always come with so many other positives so wait... We are not thinking about low prices right now. Cheesy

goaldigger

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

This will depend on the market sentiment, either a hype or a FUD.
We have to understand that during the halving, the price of Bitcoin is not on the up trend since it always happens before and after the halving. I can still see the $100k target after halving, and we might see this price before the year end.

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Quote from: New Money on March 25, 2024, 08:45:57 PM

Next month will be Bitcoin halving, how far can the price go down? or how high can the price go up?

Rest assured - you never know what will happen to bitcoin the next day. Predictions basically won't always be correct even if there are some benchmarks on which to base the analysis - but if you already have bitcoin in your wallet, then be grateful and get ready for bigger events.

Nowadays there are a lot of misleading predictions - I mean they don't do any analysis, but just guess the numbers wildly. You only have to be sure of one thing - the price will be more expensive when the demand increases, that is the hope that every current holder always expresses. Don't focus on how high or how low the price will be at the time of the halving - but focus on what you currently have in your wallet.

Topic: Bitcoin halving, how low the price can be? - page 3. (Read 769 times)