Bitcoin has seen furthest correction of all bull markets - page 2.

exstasie

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Quote from: fabiorem on October 03, 2019, 07:56:16 AM

43% is not a correction.

43% is a crash.

Where do you draw that line? There's some 40-42% corrections listed in the OP.

Or maybe a "crash" doesn't indicate a bear market. August 2012 (57%) and April 2013 (83%) are examples of "crashes" on the way to much higher highs.

Herbert2020

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it is interesting to me that before this recent drop whenever you looked at what most of these "traders" were saying none of them accepted that we were in a bull run even though price had gone up more than 250% in about 6 months! they were insisting on denying the bull run. and now they seem to all suddenly have changed their minds and accepted that it was a bull run and now it has ended Shocked

if you ask me, we are still in a bull run with a slight hiccup. right now due to this drop, everything is being postponed a little but there is no down "trend" so that we could consider it a bear run or end of the bull run. there was just 1 single drop case. yeah if we continue declining and see lower and lower prices every week then we can call it end of bull run.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: exstasie on October 03, 2019, 02:20:45 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 01, 2019, 04:05:47 PM

Quote from: exstasie on October 01, 2019, 04:00:01 PM

August 2012: $16.40 -> $7.10 (56.7%)
April 2013: $260 -> $45 (83%)

True story, hadn't thought to check further back to be honest. In both of these cases the price was above the 200 Day MA, so I'd say it was still bullish.

The 200-day MA breakdown is discouraging, yes. Same with the 20-week MA. These are for sure reasons for caution here but I don't think we have the data to say they are definitely indicative of a bear market.

Agreed, to clarify I wasn't saying we were in a bear market, but there we may no longer in a bull market either, and instead look bearish at the moment. Given there's not enough evidence to say we're in "still" bear or bull market, I think it's fair to say the price action is reality neutral at the moment. This might sound like an odd conclusion, but a 3.5x gain followed by a 45% correction sounds pretty neutral to me.

Also anyone else noticed we were also supported by the average price of the bear market? It's been 665 days since the $20k peak back in December 2017, the 665 Day MA (average price since $20k correction / bear market) is currently at $7682. Notice how we came down to $18 short of this? It has also finally flattened out, indicating the balance between the bears & the bulls in the past 95 weeks has finally been met. It also suggests the price is ready to move further upwards or downwards in my mind.

The only slight concern is that with recent price action, it has started to change it's trajectory downwards again. It's the yellow line on this chart anyway:

Own work: dragononcrypto

Quote from: Lucius on October 03, 2019, 08:05:11 AM

Some people say that there is no actual bull run from April 2019, but almost $10 000 up in a very short time was interpreted by many as such.

The moving average above definiately confirms this theory: the 2019 bull market only negated the bear market of 2018.

Lucius

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https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Historical-Corrections-of-Bitcoin-BTCUSD_tbl3_329973120

Maybe this table shows a better history of corrections, but since it shows events only from 2012, the biggest correction is still from 2011 with decline of 93%.

Some people say that there is no actual bull run from April 2019, but almost $10 000 up in a very short time was interpreted by many as such. However, it should take into account that the probable reason for this was that Bakkt was buying BTC for his service, and some data says that the amount was around 100 000 BTC.

Price of Bitcoin is always depended on the bull/bear mood, but if we look at the table it's really just about making a profit with one very clearly visible difference, Bitcoin high/lowes price is going up, but a decline in % stays pretty much at the same values.

fabiorem

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43% is not a correction.

43% is a crash.

exstasie

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 01, 2019, 04:05:47 PM

Quote from: exstasie on October 01, 2019, 04:00:01 PM

August 2012: $16.40 -> $7.10 (56.7%)
April 2013: $260 -> $45 (83%)

True story, hadn't thought to check further back to be honest. In both of these cases the price was above the 200 Day MA, so I'd say it was still bullish.

The 200-day MA breakdown is discouraging, yes. Same with the 20-week MA. These are for sure reasons for caution here but I don't think we have the data to say they are definitely indicative of a bear market. A fellow analyst elaborates on that here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/csAFwPYs-The-Weekly-21-EMA-is-No-Longer-Precedent-Time-for-New-Precedent/

Quote

I went on to explain in this publication WHY CLOSING BELOW the "Weekly" 21-EMA should NOT be the "precedent" to determine if we are to transition into months of a bear market. We are currently about to determine WHAT IS OUR NEW "PRECEDENT." Will it be the Magenta 80-EMA in the 4-Day TF? Will it be the Yellow 90-EMA in the 4-Day TF? Will it be the Green 110-EMA in the 4-Day TF? It's currently looking like it may end up being the 80-EMA in the 4-Day TF. We will find out soon enough.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: hugeblack on October 01, 2019, 03:45:41 PM

$20k to $3200

Yeah, that's the one I was looking for.

And while I obviously could look at a bitcoin price chart, I have not done so in a couple of years--I didn't even realize that it had hit $13,880 this past time around. Totally forgot, since after that it had pooped out at $10k for a while. I really ought to check the chart sometime soon, but I don't believe in TA so that's not my thing. Perhaps I'll do it just for nostalgia's sake.

Edit: I looked at the chart, and bitcoin didn't go as high as $13,880 in 2019. Got close but did not reach that level.

Quote from: Vantix on October 01, 2019, 04:02:12 PM

First of all you can't say that this correction is over. Bitcoin can still go even lower and set a new low.

Definitely true. When bitcoin was vacillating around the $10k mark, I'd figured that when it busted out of that range it'd go upward and back toward its ATH. Didn't happen, and there's no telling where it's headed from here. True, it did rebound from below $8k....but nothing is certain. Traders and chart watchers would do well to remember this.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 01, 2019, 03:59:28 PM

Quote from: hugeblack on October 01, 2019, 03:45:41 PM

I do not think that what is happening now is the furthest correctio as mentioned above

Not the furthest correction no. From the subject:

Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 01, 2019, 06:38:35 PM

Bitcoin has seen furthest correction of all bull markets

Bitcoin seems to always be either in a bull or bear state except when the price is flat--and those flat parts can last a long time. The drop from $20k was certainly when it was in a bull market. Ah, the euphoria. I do miss that so.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: exstasie on October 01, 2019, 04:00:01 PM

August 2012: $16.40 -> $7.10 (56.7%)
April 2013: $260 -> $45 (83%)

True story, hadn't thought to check further back to be honest. In both of these cases the price was above the 200 Day MA, so I'd say it was still bullish.

Vantix

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First of all you can't say that this correction is over. Bitcoin can still go even lower and set a new low. If this would happened then it could mean that 43% correction wasn't so bad after all but let's not go that far and just patiently wait what the future will bring us.

exstasie

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 01, 2019, 01:38:35 PM

Dates would be useful here, but you get the idea. Does this mean Bitcoin is no longer in a bull market?
I haven't double checked these numbers, but they look about right.

I checked a few of them. They seem roughly correct but there are at least a couple important ones missing from the list.

August 2012: $16.40 -> $7.10 (56.7%)
April 2013: $260 -> $45 (83%)

Both took place during bull markets on the way to new all-time highs. David has been seeing 2012 as the closest parallel to the current cycle. Food for thought.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: hugeblack on October 01, 2019, 03:45:41 PM

I do not think that what is happening now is the furthest correctio as mentioned above

Not the furthest correction no. From the subject:

Quote from: dragonvslinux on October 01, 2019, 06:38:35 PM

Bitcoin has seen furthest correction of all bull markets

hugeblack

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I do not think that what is happening now is the furthest correctio as mentioned above, Some collapses exceeded 50% months:
$700 to $350
$20k to $3200
And others, it seems to be an attempt to find similarities in numbers to prove the correctness of his analysis but all means nothing.
What happened in the past does not necessarily mean to be repeated because of the variables/factors are changing.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: exstasie on October 01, 2019, 04:00:01 PM

August 2012: $16.40 -> $7.10 (56.7%)
April 2013: $260 -> $45 (83%)

Probably not in a bull market anymore init.
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