Yeah, have to agree with what Lucius says about cycles. They're there and I believe at least some form of a cycle has to take place -- whether or not it will be as predictable in timeframe or in amplitudes (highs and lows) is another thing entirely.
Yes, and unless we break it in this 4 year cycle, then it will have to take place. I understand that there are proponents who says that we might see a super cycle or it will be broken into 2 small cycle because bitcoin narratives have change. However, I think it will remain and continue to hold true as 2022 is the start of the bearcycle.
I still think that we are at that one large increase level, however after the next one it could be broken into two smaller ones. Right now, having 10x or even if you push it 20x is not impossible. The bottom was 16k, which means 320k would be 20x and that is HUGE increase for bitcoin, I am guessing it won't be that high but it is a possibility there. Which means we are talking about something that is a bit harder to handle, and that's going to be the key here for sure, anything above 200k is a huge one large move.
However, if we are talking about something that is two smaller pieces after that, it makes mor sense, like 240k will drop to 100k or something, and then we will go to 300k, only 3x and small, but then it will go towards 150k to 200k and then we will go to 500k, that type of moving is possible.