Yeah, have to agree with what Lucius says about cycles. They're there and I believe at least some form of a cycle has to take place -- whether or not it will be as predictable in timeframe or in amplitudes (highs and lows) is another thing entirely.
Yes, and unless we break it in this 4 year cycle, then it will have to take place. I understand that there are proponents who says that we might see a super cycle or it will be broken into 2 small cycle because bitcoin narratives have change. However, I think it will remain and continue to hold true as 2022 is the start of the bearcycle.
And then we have the so-called Black Swan events -- March 2020 stood out in the last cycle, but I see now people are quick to call Terra and FTX black swans (to me, completely rendering the term useless as Black Swans shouldn't happen so often and their impacts should be extremely severe!).
As I have said in the previous post, this so called Black Swans will have to happen in a bear market, like you mentioned the Covid-19 March 2020 was the one in the last bear cycle. Now we have the Terra Luna and recently FTX collapse, this event is inevitable, someone or something will have to happen to bring the market down and reach capitulation or order for us to rise again in the bull run.
. I don't know what his prediction is based on to say that the bitcoin price could rise from the end of 2023, but I will agree with him that the market will recover, bitcoin will increase in price as the world economy enters the recovery phase after war and inflation. Like the economic crisis in 2008, everything exploded and grew enormously after the crisis. 
