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Topic: Bitcoin is the most dangerous item to short. - page 2. (Read 4505 times)

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
When it comes to shorting Bitcoin one must mention Pirate and his huge BTC short position. Of course he defaulted on his contracts when the short squeeze was applied.

Hint: To those long on Bitcoin. Take delivery.

I thought long bitcoin always means delivery, otherwise you are just long some one's bitcoin denominated promissory note? Not like dollar, since all dollars in banks are FDIC insured, and implicit backed by federal reserve (if banks could not use their asset to secure loan from market, then federal reserve will take the asset as collateral and issue loans), so all dollars in banks are dollars, not some chase dollar note or citi dollar note.

Most people who long bitcoin with Pirate are just long pirateBTC note, which probably should be rated as a junk note with grade C, his note should be less than 1 BTC if correctly priced,so by entering the price on par (pay 1BTC to get pirateBTC), you are already losing money before he defaulted,

Of course the creditworthiness of the shorts is critical here; however this is closely related to the market. Pirate is the perfect example. When the BTC / USD rate was falling at a rate greater than 7% a week as was the case in the fall of 2011 Pirate had no problem meeting his obligations and his notes were good, it is when the market turned in 2012 that the short squeeze was applied and this massive short defaulted. The Pirate investors who took delivery ahead of the default and squeezed the short made money.

The sure way for the longs to squeeze the shorts is to take delivery and this works in any market.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
When it comes to shorting Bitcoin one must mention Pirate and his huge BTC short position. Of course he defaulted on his contracts when the short squeeze was applied.

Hint: To those long on Bitcoin. Take delivery.

I thought long bitcoin always means delivery, otherwise you are just long some one's bitcoin denominated promissory note? Not like dollar, since all dollars in banks are FDIC insured, and implicit backed by federal reserve (if banks could not use their asset to secure loan from market, then federal reserve will take the asset as collateral and issue loans), so all dollars in banks are dollars, not some chase dollar note or citi dollar note.

Most people who long bitcoin with Pirate are just long pirateBTC note, which probably should be rated as a junk note with grade C, his note should be less than 1 BTC if correctly priced,so by entering the price on par (pay 1BTC to get pirateBTC), you are already losing money before he defaulted,
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
When it comes to shorting Bitcoin one must mention Pirate and his huge BTC short position. Of course he defaulted on his contracts when the short squeeze was applied.

Hint: To those long on Bitcoin. Take delivery.
sr. member
Activity: 527
Merit: 250
I sold bitcoins yesterday on 12€, placed an order to buy at 10.7

There's my bet.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Awesome info thanks.

Is bitcoin very dangerous to short? Yes, it is highly risky, but it is compensated by the potential gain... so people still do it.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Clown prophet
When volume on bear side, but price goes up slowly - its called wedge buddy, hehe. Also, negative volume divergence.

Price can escape up from here only being in bubble mode.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
Come across this comments and remind me about shorting, and this is killer identity of bitcoin, you can not really short it naked, which means you always have to borrow from someone to short (which now seems too difficult, the lending market here seems almost dead), so bitcoin market may not be your normal currency market (there is maybe intermediate danger to short, but ultimately you have a central bank to back you up, and that is banks do, shorting dollars/yen/euro into eternal......)
And also it is not like shorting gold, since gold in current financial market is totally financialized, meaning long/shorts are just contract tokens, since no gold transfer needed, only contract backed by gold.

Not bitcoin, bitcoin real transfer is too easy not to, so speculating on the short is too danger. You need to get people panic, hey, how could 21m something distributed among some hundredths of thousands users that evenone have only a portion of their asset in bitcoin to be panic???


What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps.  Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up.  Looks like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.

This pattern is called a "right translated cycle".  Typical price action in a bull market.  Slow methodical rises with short scary vertical drop corrections.

Bear will markets show the opposite action, slow steady declines punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies.

More info:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Cycles2.html

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