Bitcoin long term linear trend - page 3.

bajlox

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Quote from: Elwar on November 01, 2014, 06:56:35 AM

Quote from: Dabs on November 01, 2014, 06:48:57 AM

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

P = 13.5t + 12

t = months from November 2012

so...
2015 start: $363
2015 end: $525

So the average: $444

Though I fully expect that when the ETF opens up the price will jump...but I believe over the long term, barring an economic disaster, the price will gravitate toward the linear price whether above or below.

This is still low wont halving increase price.
With this there is almost no profit.

Maybe im wrong but with this formula i figure it out like that.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Clearly your chart was wrong for most of 2014. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Elwar

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Quote from: Dabs on November 01, 2014, 06:48:57 AM

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

P = 13.5t + 12

t = months from November 2012

so...
2015 start: $363
2015 end: $525

So the average: $444

Though I fully expect that when the ETF opens up the price will jump...but I believe over the long term, barring an economic disaster, the price will gravitate toward the linear price whether above or below.

Dabs

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The Concierge of Crypto

Mr. Elwar, what's your chart and formula say for every month in 2015? Like, the average?

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: nextblast on November 01, 2014, 01:28:32 AM

Though its quite interesting, but I don't think any formula can predict the actual price, especially in the long run.

I would expect in 5 to 10 years for the dollar to crash hard which would throw all charts out the window.

nextblast

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Though its quite interesting, but I don't think any formula can predict the actual price, especially in the long run.

asdlolciterquit

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Uhm...you wrote:

Quote

The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

so, for example, in 01/2015 we have:

t=1+12+12+1=26

P=13.5*26+12=363

and in 12/2015 t=37, so P=511?

too low. It doesn't convinct me.

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: azguard on October 31, 2014, 06:53:38 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 05:04:17 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:58:25 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:55:12 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:44:28 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.

Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

But in what alt to invest or to keep some amount of cash.
To play safe on some stable and trustworthy or to gamble a little and try to make bigger piece of cake in this picture.

Okay now you're just playing with me. This technology is too important to be ignored. Your projections wouldn't even attract a buyout by Facebook.

Dabs

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The Concierge of Crypto

Woot! So, I took out a fiat bank loan payable in 60 months. In addition to that, I'm opening a game site. I should be able to make back a little bit more than enough to pay my monthly amortizations in a few weeks. By the time my loan is fully paid, I should have at least quadrupled it.

azguard

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Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 05:04:17 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:58:25 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:55:12 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:44:28 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.

Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

But in what alt to invest or to keep some amount of cash.
To play safe on some stable and trustworthy or to gamble a little and try to make bigger piece of cake in this picture.

cbeast

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Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:58:25 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:55:12 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:44:28 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.

Ah good because that leaves lots of room for alt coins to fill the current 400 trillion dollar global economy when the securities and shadow banking industries collapse.

Elwar

legendary

Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:55:12 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:44:28 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

At the linear formula's rate the price would be up about 50% in one year. Double in 2 years.

Most conservative investments expect to double in around 20 years.

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:44:28 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

No. Your linear formula would prevent it if it were actually the case. Imagine if cell phone production rate had stymied to your rate of production. We would still require a car to move them around and global society would not have facebook in their pocket. If bitcoin does not show growth as a store of value, nobody will value it to store their value.

Elwar

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Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 04:34:41 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

And a linear formula would prevent this?

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: Elwar on October 31, 2014, 04:20:45 AM

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

A currency that is useful to me is where people near me accept it for goods and services.

Elwar

legendary

Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: cbeast on October 31, 2014, 03:33:05 AM

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

A currency with a slow gradual rise is not useful?

What is your definition of a useful currency?

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

With that formula Bitcoin should be a useful currency in about 5000 years.

gr8n8

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Activity: 144

Merit: 100

Quote from: azguard on September 30, 2014, 07:18:03 AM

Quote from: sgbett on September 30, 2014, 07:07:58 AM

It looks linear because we are still here Wink

Sure we are here but in no time we can be back up again.
But i dont think that it will be any time soon, I would like like all of you but it wont.

Need something big to happen so that price goes up again.
Dont you all agree.

i pick this answer