Topic: Bitcoin Market Sentiment Infographic for August (Read 232 times)

I do agree that before we break over prices, we test them a bit and that's how we make bull run. Even during the 68k period, the first time around we end up with a good amount of test, like first at 20k then end up with 30k then end up with 50k actually instead of 40k. That is why I agree that it's going to be similar this time around as well.

It means that we are going to see 25k having a bit of a rough patch for us, when that happens, we will set our eyes on the next target and then the target after that and it will keep going. Not because we can't break it, we just end up doing something like that because it's not always easy for us to leave it aside that quickly and go up, need to get some good rally behind us and that testing helps us.

This personally is exactly what I don't see occurring. If it continues to re-test $24K levels, even after a handful of times, the resistance only becomes weaker as long as price is making higher lows. Personally I still see a lot of support all the way down to $22K. The 200 WMA, 50 Day MA & 50 Month MA, all time-frames basically. Unless the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K is broken then I don't see re-tests lower than this imo.

If price doesn't break $25k for 2nd or 3rd test, a quick dip to $17k probably will happen to test that support. That's a good time to buy which is why it might just be a very quick dip for many may have been expecting the market to test that $17K again.  I could be wrong though but there this kind of flash dips happened several times in the past.

Now that price has tested $25K (ish) a few times already, I think it's due to break if tested again. Especially when price is forming higher lows and horizontal resistance, even if it's far from a guarantee. I guess the trend-line you are referring to is from the two previous lower highs, which currently puts it at $22.5K, though personally I think there is immediate support below this around $22K so I wouldn't consider it fatal if broken, as also only two points of contact for that trend-line so not convinced it's confirmed as support anyway. The fact that price continues to find support from $23K and the 200 WMA is a positive sign though.

Yesterday the price was looking a bit unreliable, but already today it's back above the 20 Day MA and looks comfortable consolidating between $23K and $23.5K which is good to see.

I didn't saw the price reached as high as $24.6k, but I do agree that it is "almost" $25k so I would say that we may have touch it already. However, it didn't last that long, being rejected again.

So we will have to see if we can retest $25k, and how are we going to react again. And obviously, if the trendline is broken, we might be or at least the bears will be in control again.

I personally do not think it could be over just because someone said it. But I do feel like it is over right now not because someone said it but because I think it has been long enough time. Like if the drop started on November, and there was a bit of increase on December then I would totally understand why people may think it is just a dead cat bounce.

But, it happened during early November and has been going down ever since and we are now in august, that means it has been 10 months, nearly a year since the drop, we are getting there. I do not believe that bitcoin stays low for that long, it eventually recovers and we are there about right now and will go up again soon.

It seems this chart has a sense IMO and I tend to agree that it has a relevant movement.

We witnessed how the market played well right now, it seems I believe also that there's a manipulation of the price because of this suddenly pump and dump quickly but unfortunately, I don't have any valid reason to prove it.
But I will not scratch my head to find an accurate prediction because I prefer a long-term price prediction that for sure the price of Bitcoin will always head up.  The next Bitcoin halving is near to come and I think that's another reason to boost the Bitcoin price.

However, it's a good thing to see that your chart seems to predict in a bullish way.

Update of this market sentiment fractal that is currently following anticipated trajectory, despite not expecting it to be accurate or correct (sometimes you get lucky), it's now becoming relevant:



Unless price swiftly moves to $28K to $30K, then I expect further resistance and corrections along the way. Based on the recent up swings, the next correction may be around $26.5K, given that price has already reached $24.6K so the $25K "physiological resistance level" is unlikely to act as resistance, given sellers have already front-run this sell level. Expect most to consider the rally over if $25K is re-tested as support.

Agreed. We have witnessed bear markets pump and dumps before which were caused by whales and cryptofunds like Alameda Research through their use of manipulation and leverage. Also, similar to you, I also become very skeptical when analysts like Tom Lee go to CNBC and declare that the bear market is over hehehe.

Beautiful chart! Short-term bullish on Bitcoin right now especially when the month of August started with Bitcoin staying above $20,000.
The month of August for me now is very bullish, few days ago I tried to short the market and most of my trades fail, it's very difficult to fight against the bulls 

As I said, when price is no longer making macro lower highs, then I wouldn't consider it a bear market. Especially if there are higher lows along with lower highs, then I'd consider it a neutral market at minimum. Similar to a lot of 2020 when there was both bearish lower highs but a bullish higher low. I generally don't see markets as a binary concept - bullish or bearish - but sometimes simply consolidating and therefore neutral.

A good example would be Gold in around 2016 when price began to make higher lows and no longer making lower highs, but equal highs. This confirmed the neutral to bullish market the asset was in before making a higher high in 2019, while by 2017 long-term moving averages had already aligned in bullish formation indicating the likelihood of another bull-run or bull market, like what happened in 2020.


This is true, I think an asset like Gold shows this, taking over 30 years to make a new ATH after decade long bull-run from 1970 to 1980. But otherwise I think until then it'll be more likely Bitcoin will make new ATHs more often then present, kind of similar to Nasdaq after initial dot com bubble, especially with it's current inflation halving every 4 years effecting supply 50% less each time. At some point the 4 year cycle will break due to the lack of significance of inflation halving when it's already so low, at that point it's more likely to see new ATHs with gaps of 1-2 years at most imo, similar to S&P after 2008 recession.

I guess this is part of the "super cycle" theory that I still think is quite relevant, as a lot of emerging markets (such as Nasdaq & S&P) have followed this same pattern, once adoption reaches a level where it becomes almost guaranteed to continue, or otherwise considered "normal" to allocate wealth to such a market. Clearly we are very far away from that with less than 1% adoption or normalization of investing.

As emphasised, it's a subjective opinion. It's simply distinguishing between a bull run and a bull market. I personally see the two concepts very differently, hence the subjectivity.

For me, a bull run is when there is bullish momentum on short and mid-term time-frames, like at present, while a bull market is when there is bullish momentum on longer-term time-frame (ideally also all time-frames). It's not that I need to see an ATH for confirmation of a bull market no, but instead a higher low and generally a lower high being broken, therefore negating the bear market.

Hence in 2019 there was no significant higher low until $3.8K was re-tested in 2020. I was confident to consider price action to be within a bull market around $10K-12K once all short, mid and long-term moving averages were aligned in bullish formation and price had broken the resistance trend-line (from $20K to $14K to $10K), which was exactly when price began to increase in a parabolic manner prior to making a new ATH unsurpsingly. Until then, in the macro picture, Bitcoin had only created lower highs, for me that is not a bull market, but instead the very definition of a bear market. Similar to how creating higher highs is the concept of a bull market. At the peak of $14K Weekly MAs had aligned themselves in bullish formation, but only to create a lower high prior to MAs crossing bearish, hence unsurprising correction.


I'd call it a bull run for sure, but not a bull market. Especially if price created a lower high than corrected by 50-75%.

I agree generally with this statement, though I'd break it down to $20K to $22K support level, with $22K to $24K trading range that price is now trying to build support in as it consolidates.

As can be seen by volume profile, the $20K to $22K level has been the highest volume traded since ATH of $69K, while $22K to $24K is currently the third busiest trading range for volume after $30K levels. I personally don't see breaking through $24K as a guarantee as of yet, even if it seems likely now the bear market has lost it's momentum, but more so that if price does break through this level re-testing $30K prices becomes highly likely based on the volume gap that was created (due to the capitulation), even though are is some volume from late 2020 up to $25.5K, these are now "old coins" if not already sold.

Though zooming out further I can see the broader volume range between $17.5K and $23K, the lower half of which existed longer before this year from trading in late 2020. But now this implies that dropping below $20K would more or less confirm $20K to $22K as a distribution zone, as opposed to accumulation as is currently the case, as there is now more volume traded above $20K than just below, therefore I wouldn't be as confident in continued relief rally if sub $20K prices arrive soon. We've already shifted the support level up by around $3K, so turning it into new resistance wouldn't be a good sign at all imo.


I guess I see things slightly differently, that of a bull run within a bear market, otherwise known as a relief rally or dead cat bounce, like in 2019. I personally didn't see 2019 as a bull market, as price made a lower high at $14K and had yet to make a higher low. But I realise for others the end of the bear market is when the low has been reached, so this is more of a subjective opinion really.


I completely agree here, I'm not expecting any bull market for approximately a year. I'm only anticipating a relief rally (as referenced above) that could take prices to $40K to $50K. Then price can finally make a higher low maybe around $25K to $30K prices sometime early 2023. Some would call that a bull market, but I'd consider it further confirmation of a bear market with a lower high being formed.


I will also be quite sceptical at these prices, as $30K "theoretically" should act as strong resistance after being support for 18 months. But also realising how much leverage there is in the market these days, then similar to 2019 this "strong resistance" level might end up being similar to $6K to $8K, that price broke through relatively easily, followed by continuing much higher. That said, $30K was around 3x times stronger support (based on time) than $6K to $8K support level, so it may well take 3 times longer to break through as resistance, hence not ruling out a re-test of the 200 WMA once this level is tested.

I may be wrong, but it does not seem to me that we should expect any kind of bull market this year, and probably not even in the first two quarters of next year. It is simply too early for that, and the global world market will only feel the real challenges in the coming months. I will be skeptical even if the price reaches $30k, because then we are just going back to where we were before the idea of the genius from South Korea collapsed. If that hadn't happened, maybe the bottom would have been somewhere around $25k, but that now remains only in the sphere of speculation.

All in all, I'm really interested in how things will play out in August in relation to your analysis, although I admit that I'm more focused on long-term goals.

Just my personal opinion on the changing sentiment from bearish to slightly more bullish while at the same time wherever there has been a correction in this relief rally most assume price will return to the lows and that the relief rally is over, but much to their disbelief price finds support. I also don't see much changing, and most will remain sceptical all the way to $30K. Eventually the bears will get it right though!



The projection isn't intended to be correct here, but more reflective or how the market sentiment will react to higher highs and the subsequent corrections that will likely follow, mainly that of disbelief.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YhfjbC6X-Bitcoin-Market-Sentiment-for-August/

---

Update:

---

Related topics:

Weekly RSI leaving oversold conditions (TA thread) | Bucket list for a Bitcoin low | Bear market comparisons | If Bitcoin soon returns to $25K - $30K | Was $17.5K the low?