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Topic: Bitcoin Network Hash Rate Begins Massive Tank (Read 4360 times)

legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1005
December 21, 2012, 11:26:42 AM
#30
That's true.  I mostly created this as a troll thread but then it turned into a big debate.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Litecoin is being difficulty coastered right now by a large BTC miner who mines and dumps every other difficulty period.  It's inevitable with a 3.5 day retarget.

In other news it looks like I was right, we're looking at a -13% difficulty decrease right now which will put us below 3M.

I don't know -- since your OP it went up quite a bit, then down again (eventually).

Difficulty reset 2 days after the OP -- it was basically flat.

If I say the BTC price is tanking, am I "proven correct" if the price drops 10% up to 12 days later?

Isn't there a saying about a broken clock being right twice a day?

legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1005
Litecoin is being difficulty coastered right now by a large BTC miner who mines and dumps every other difficulty period.  It's inevitable with a 3.5 day retarget.

In other news it looks like I was right, we're looking at a -13% difficulty decrease right now which will put us below 3M.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Uh LTC difficulty recent went up from 26 to 42, not down...unfortunately. It was fun while it lasted after dropping from 48 to 26 though. Tongue

LTC is on its way back down.... I posted the then current estimates from allchains.info

LTC is on a roller coaster ride.. when diff drops people jump on it like a free meal.. when diff shoots back up they run away like the plague..

so far it seems that the down cycle lasts 2 days and the up cycle (higher diff) lasts 4 1/2 days

And people think a stable currency/economy can be built on a system like Litecoin?

Give me a break.

Bitcoin has a long, stable history compared to Litecoin -- and I still meet plenty of people that haven't heard of Bitcoin.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Uh LTC difficulty recent went up from 26 to 42, not down...unfortunately. It was fun while it lasted after dropping from 48 to 26 though. Tongue

LTC is on its way back down.... I posted the then current estimates from allchains.info

LTC is on a roller coaster ride.. when diff drops people jump on it like a free meal.. when diff shoots back up they run away like the plague..

so far it seems that the down cycle lasts 2 days and the up cycle (higher diff) lasts 4 1/2 days
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Uh LTC difficulty recent went up from 26 to 42, not down...unfortunately. It was fun while it lasted after dropping from 48 to 26 though. Tongue
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
oh giggity.. all 3 difficulties are dropping off quite a bit.

btc    211718    0M    2016    213696    1978    1.88%    3370181.75000    3022227.88201    -10.32%    15d 7hr 37m 18s
nmc    86861    402M    2016    88704    1843    8.58%    963488.77507    796715.75148    -17.31%    15d 11hr 27m 52s
ltc    260605    680M    2016    262080    1475    26.84%    42.27702    26.72447    -36.79%    4d 1hr 13m 28s
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Annuit cœptis humanae libertas
The total network hashrate seems a little too high for a monday.  I was kind of expecting it to be in the high teens, or lower 20s.

Like a good girlfriend

LMAO! Grin

Tip jar?
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
The total network hashrate seems a little too high for a monday.  I was kind of expecting it to be in the high teens, or lower 20s.

Like a good girlfriend
member
Activity: 75
Merit: 10
The total network hashrate seems a little too high for a monday.  I was kind of expecting it to be in the high teens, or lower 20s.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
There was a huge spike in hashrate at the beginning of the week, followed by a huge drop later, both rectifying towards the norm.

Difficulty is calculated roughly as expected_time/actual_time, so if it averages out to having taken the same amount of time, difficulty will remain roughly the same.
sr. member
Activity: 330
Merit: 250
I'm confused the hash rate is going down but difficulty hasn't moved much does that mean the remaining miners are just lucky?
legendary
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.
It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.
When taking into account the entire 12 days, yes it looks like nothings happened. But look at the chart I posted up above. The network hashrate was significantly and noticeable higher before the 4th than it was after the 4th.

Or if you want, look at the OPs chart. It dropped a minimum of 2% for 4 straight days. That's pretty close to a 10% drop.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1005
if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.
It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.

Isn't it more like a ~30% drop?  We were at 30 th/s on the 1st and now we're at 23 th/s from 3-day estimates

legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1005
Because it is in tacotime's best interest for people to stop mining litecoins, most threads in speculation forums have an agenda

Why are threads created with misleading titles like bitcointalk is some tabloid rag?

Shhh Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
DARKNETMARKETS.COM
if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.
It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Variance or no variance, for whatever reason the halving of blocks has provided for the largest short-term swing in estimated hashrate calculated by blockrate in the past year. Obviously it will be weeks before the ramifications sort themselves out though.
hero member
Activity: 555
Merit: 504
Its growing again. Cant wait for difficulty to drop, but it looks that many have to wait atleast month, until they realizes, that they cant mine a shit now Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1007
Agreed. I think the only people who shut down are the twelve-ish people on this forum that have stated they have. Last I checked the estimated difficulty was going up. May have changed in the last 18hours though.

Estimate has flipped to a slight decrease, which is impressive considering how much the network ramped up just prior to the block reward drop, which really pushed the estimate high.

3438909 -> 3425847.

Estimate was even lower earlier, but we've had a few periods of 10+ blocks in about 45 minutes today which brought it back up a little.
sr. member
Activity: 330
Merit: 250
Agreed. I think the only people who shut down are the twelve-ish people on this forum that have stated they have. Last I checked the estimated difficulty was going up. May have changed in the last 18hours though.
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