gold could easily fall to about 700 to 500 USD and even stay there for a long time.
We have active buyers in gold so we would also need active sellers to match and bring price down. It wont fall by people just holding it. If they liquidate fort knox then I guess $500 but also arent dollars worth less then ? Its all a treadmill and I dont see the result (easily) being lower gold
A big clue to gold is the oil price because of all the machinery running costs to refine it down.
Are you going to gauge accuracy by CPI or by the oil cost to your house heating and transport costs. CPI is artifical and subject to politics and statistical interpretation where as oil is non-negoiable cost usually
I dont trust CPI to stay down or oil to cost less especially.
Here is longer term graph, so oil to gold is 2.5 now similar to quite a few other times, most of the 50's and 60's
The key to the housing crash precursor was to observe the cost of housing in years of rental. When the house cost 50 or 100 years of rental costs, it was overpriced. Seems gold oil are also related prices