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Topic: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? - page 169. (Read 299008 times)

hero member
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Life is short, practice empathy in your life
June 11, 2014, 12:29:53 PM
#99
Gold is in a long term bear market. It has had its peak in 2011 and is not going to go above it for decades.

It will probably go down to as low as 500 in the coming years. It's a waste of time to own it for now. Maybe around 2030ish you should start thinking of going long gold.

500 of what? Euros, dollars? Shocked

But in any case it can't go beyond its cost of mining, which is well above $500 (if you indeed meant dollars) on average (though it can drop a bit, but not for a long time, like oil went from $140 to $30 and then back to $100+)... Cool

If the long term pattern repeats, gold could easily fall to about 700 to 500 USD and even stay there for a long time.

legendary
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www.bitkong.com
June 11, 2014, 11:56:28 AM
#98
I would pick gold due to the fact that Bitcoin's price would increase for me to have a greater return. Yes Bitcoin may completely fall short, but Im sure it won't
sr. member
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June 11, 2014, 11:25:59 AM
#97
Gold is in a long term bear market. It has had its peak in 2011 and is not going to go above it for decades.

It will probably go down to as low as 500 in the coming years. It's a waste of time to own it for now. Maybe around 2030ish you should start thinking of going long gold.

500 of what? Euros, dollars? Shocked

But in any case it can't go beyond its cost of mining, which is well above $500 (if you indeed meant dollars) on average (though it can drop a bit, but not for a long time, like oil went from $140 to $30 and then back to $100+)... Cool

In the LONG term, both gold and bitcoin should approach the incremental cost of mining (or at least that is a long term floor on the price). Figuring out exactly what that cost is would be the challenge.
For gold, the industry estimates range from US$1000-1200 per oz.

For investment purposes, you should have a diversified portfolio (unless you're just trying to speculate). Both gold and bitcoin should be part of that. Gold historically has a beta of 0 (or slightly negative) meaning that it has no correlation with the equity markets. So far, bitcoin is the same. A well diversified portfolio includes some portion of these types of assets that are not correlated, so that you reduce they systematic risk to which you are exposed.
legendary
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June 11, 2014, 11:15:20 AM
#96
Gold is in a long term bear market. It has had its peak in 2011 and is not going to go above it for decades.

It will probably go down to as low as 500 in the coming years. It's a waste of time to own it for now. Maybe around 2030ish you should start thinking of going long gold.

500 of what? Euros, dollars? Shocked

But in any case it can't go beyond its cost of mining, which is well above $500 (if you indeed meant dollars) on average (though it can drop a bit, but not for a long time, like oil went from $140 to $30 and then back to $100+)... Cool
hero member
Activity: 1106
Merit: 500
Life is short, practice empathy in your life
June 11, 2014, 09:49:48 AM
#95
Gold is in a long term bear market. It has had its peak in 2011 and is not going to go above it for decades.

It will probably go down to as low as 500 in the coming years. It's a waste of time to own it for now. Maybe around 2030ish you should start thinking of going long gold.
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June 11, 2014, 09:38:38 AM
#94
depend what your need
if you need invest for long term gold is better
but if u want play some speculation try BTC because BTC price very fluctuate and nobody can guarantee digital currency will survive for long time 
legendary
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June 11, 2014, 09:28:44 AM
#93
Much rather take Bitcoin. At this stage of the game, yes it'll fluctuate, but in the end, if played smart, you'll most definitely turn profitable. Gold more so has razor thin margins for profits and is a more long term investment. However it won't decrease dramitcally like Bitcoin has the potential to do. 

It is yet too early to draw any conclusions on Bitcoin and its long-term future. Gold has been there for millenia and will probably for as long. But what about Bitcoin? No one can promise or guarantee you that it will ever exist in a year (ok, let's say in five years for sure)... Cool

Why wouldn't it exist in a year? It fulfills truly important needs, which nothing else can fulfill adequatly.
And since it is decentralised, there's no single point of failure; as long as there are users, Bitcoin will be functionnal.

No one can exclude the possibility of appearing a new killer digital currency that would make Bitcoin obsolete. Ok, you may say there is one already, but what if governments around the world decide to take on and come with a new edition of fiat that would beat Bitcoin on its grounds plus what Bitcoin lacks, i.e. official support? Cool
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June 11, 2014, 09:12:59 AM
#92
Why not both? Diversification is important.. I'd say gold is more stable, but expected price gains are lower.
hero member
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June 11, 2014, 09:11:13 AM
#91
Anyone that bought gold at 1890 is already losing 35%. And no one knows if the 1200 are going to stand.

People that bought bitcoin at 1200 is losing even more, but the perspectives of price increase are much higher (even if I still think we are going down on the short-term; this isn't the place to explain why).

Plus gold is more and more impractical.
Bitcoin will adapt to future needs.
sr. member
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June 08, 2014, 10:39:24 PM
#90
If given a choice to walk away with either Bitcoin or gold of equivalent value, what would you pick?

Asians and Westerners were asked in Taipei in Chinese and English if they would take Bitcoin or gold home with them that day, and the answer might surprise you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6GiC8dqN9A

We just shot a video outside the Taipei 101 skyscraper area here and gave people a chance to answer if they would walk away with either Bitcoin or gold- and why.

If you were approached and were offered the same deal, would you walk away with Bitcoin or gold in your pocket, and why???





I would pick bitcoin over gold personally.

BTC likely has a better risk/reward ratio (although is still very risky).

BTC is much cheaper to hold then gold is. Assuming that you hold a large enough holding of BTC you will need to invest in a safety deposit box, USB dive, and (a few sheets of) paper for a paper wallet. Say if you were to buy 5 USB drives @ $10 each, and 5 safety deposit boxes @ $30/year each then your investment per year to keep your BTC safe is $200 for the first year and $150 each year thereafter.

I do not know how much it costs to store gold, however I assume that it likely costs more then the above example.
legendary
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Nothing like healthy scepticism and hard evidence
June 04, 2014, 11:28:13 AM
#89
Anyone that bought gold at 1890 is already losing 35%. And no one knows if the 1200 are going to stand.

People that bought bitcoin at 1200 is losing even more, but the perspectives of price increase are much higher (even if I still think we are going down on the short-term; this isn't the place to explain why).
sr. member
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June 04, 2014, 09:23:53 AM
#88
Much rather take Bitcoin. At this stage of the game, yes it'll fluctuate, but in the end, if played smart, you'll most definitely turn profitable. Gold more so has razor thin margins for profits and is a more long term investment. However it won't decrease dramitcally like Bitcoin has the potential to do. 

It is yet too early to draw any conclusions on Bitcoin and its long-term future. Gold has been there for millenia and will probably for as long. But what about Bitcoin? No one can promise or guarantee you that it will ever exist in a year (ok, let's say in five years for sure)... Cool

Why wouldn't it exist in a year? It fulfills truly important needs, which nothing else can fulfill adequatly.
And since it is decentralised, there's no single point of failure; as long as there are users, Bitcoin will be functionnal.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
June 04, 2014, 02:28:08 AM
#87
Much rather take Bitcoin. At this stage of the game, yes it'll fluctuate, but in the end, if played smart, you'll most definitely turn profitable. Gold more so has razor thin margins for profits and is a more long term investment. However it won't decrease dramitcally like Bitcoin has the potential to do. 

It is yet too early to draw any conclusions on Bitcoin and its long-term future. Gold has been there for millenia and will probably for as long. But what about Bitcoin? No one can promise or guarantee you that it will ever exist in a year (ok, let's say in five years for sure)... Cool
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
June 03, 2014, 11:22:42 PM
#86
Much rather take Bitcoin. At this stage of the game, yes it'll fluctuate, but in the end, if played smart, you'll most definitely turn profitable. Gold more so has razor thin margins for profits and is a more long term investment. However it won't decrease dramitcally like Bitcoin has the potential to do. 

Gold is tough to store and move securely as well. If a natural disaster struck here I could just grab my sd card and my lap top rather than dealing with a safe and the security nightmare of traveling with gold.
legendary
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www.bitkong.com
June 03, 2014, 11:08:03 PM
#85
Much rather take Bitcoin. At this stage of the game, yes it'll fluctuate, but in the end, if played smart, you'll most definitely turn profitable. Gold more so has razor thin margins for profits and is a more long term investment. However it won't decrease dramitcally like Bitcoin has the potential to do. 
sr. member
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June 03, 2014, 09:50:13 PM
#84
 Having traded and speculated in gold for 22 years I can assure everyone that most that trade gold lose a lot of money.

 Gold has huge price swings. Gold mining stocks massive price swings. Just go look at the 5 year charts! Everyone tends to "pay their dues".

 Then there is the suckers gold ("paper gold") which is merely a promise on top of counter party promises after counter party promises since far too often the gold is loaned and re-loaned out to others in various funds, or merely own by way of derivatives with their own counter party risks. And that doesn't even touch possible trustees stealing it, or gold seizures by desperate governments on rare occasions.


 There are a lot of fools that suddenly think gold is so wow, much cool, bla bla. It's just merely another commodity to trade, buy low, sell high, and a strong LONG-TERM store of value. But it's a terrible medium of exchange. And it's not a good short term to medium term store of value either. Bitcoin too is not a good "short term" (less than 12 to 18 months) store of value. Medium term I believe Bitcoin will prove to be the very strongest store of value during the next few years time. Or fade away. I am strongly in Bitcoins. I could be in anything. I choose Bitcoins for my currency of choice, my main safe haven of choice, and my current major long term investment. Others giggle now, I will likely be the one laughing from the beyond later, if not before.

 Gold belongs in every portfolio of any decent amount. But only from 2% in the best of economic times, and up to 5% in other more typical economic times. That's proper portfolio theory.

 But lately of course, over the last several years there were many points where up to 40% of one's portfolio should have been switched to physical bullion in one's own possession and control (tell absolutely no one though) if they were keenly savvy about gold and the macro economic big picture. Very few have that talent. Of course then rotating out quickly out as prices surge by way of taking profits before the momentum runs out. But trading involves taxes, the USA treats gold as a 'collectible' and none too kindly yet it's claimed by some that US gold eagles are 'not reportable'. Always check with your tax adviser or CPA.

 Today gold is a fair value at it's current spot price of $1245, but I am not rushing out to sell any bitcoins for more gold. Today Bitcoin's value is much likely to far outpace gold over the next several years, much as it has done already. If one doesn't understand why then one doesn't understand Bitcoin nor gold. If Bitcoin was at $3600 then I would be switching some over to $1245 one ounce gold coins (taking some profit).

 Gold is tremendously manipulated. That was denied forever. The Central Banks and others will continue to grossly manipulate gold prices and suppress them to hold it's value down all to keep fiat currencies values inflated as possible. Odds are gold goes much higher than today during the next decade. But any global crash like 2008-2009 could easily see gold fall back to the $1000 or even $850 or lower levels. Of course people tend to panic (sell low) and (buy high). Most get it wrong. Don't have patience. Want to rush in. Only fools rush in.

 Today Bitcoin is a buy. Gold is a hold. Figure that out. Don't panic sell unless you must raise money for current expenses. And if you do, then you didn't have any emergency savings most likely. In other words one had no business in either unless cares to speculate (gamble) which is fine if one cares for the risk levels being quite large in the short term.


 2001 was the time to push all into gold strongly, and stay in firmly all the way up to 2011 or maybe as far as 2012. A few of us pushed in, and told others to push into gold in 2001, and keep buying all the way up to $1000 strongly. Today many forces are working against gold pricing. Later the ball will very likely swing back in favor of gold, maybe extremely soon, maybe not...

 Today the better gold mining shares now are a much, much better value than physical gold bullion (buy low, sell high...). Anyone disagreeing with any of the above is touting pure rubbish and nonsense. Guessing is for losers.


 Bitcoin is everything a currency is thought of plus Digital Gold 2.0 - bitcoins are vastly superior to any and every fiat currency. And unlike gold only 21 million bitcoins will ever be produced. In other words it has what gold doesn't, it's extremely rare per bitcoin.

 I have been a gold bug, a long term gold bug as we're referred to. But not a foolish one. I also advised another person very dear to me on trading gold for the last 22 years. I am offering the same thoughts here as I did and do there.


 Then came Bitcoin in August 2011. Fast forward to October 2012 and finally it bit me. By Early 2013 I was in Bitcoin full bore. I have spend a great deal of time learning everything I could about Bitcoin. Since the 1980's I long since have been a student of capitalism and macro economics. I have studied the markets for over two decades now. This is a passion for real capitalists and traders alike.

 
My Conclusions:
==========

 Hands down Bitcoin is the superior store of value compared to gold for the short term speculator that understands technical trading analysis. It's also hands down the most LIKELY best longer term investment over the next several years too. But there is also very high risk of major losses, or even 100% losses should for whatever reason Bitcoin fail.

 After reviewing, mining, owning, trading, and storing Bitcoin, reviewing the math and science of Bitcoin and it's very foundation and whats apt to be it's future it appears as sound as it can get.

  I don't fear having much in bitcoins. In fact this likely to be 'the biggest transfer of wealth' ever per Sir Richard Branson (the Virgin Brand, Billionaire). I too believe this. Lots of money will be made and lost in Bitcoin. Buy low, sell high, keep selling higher, take profits. Repeat.
Or safer still buy now or soon on the technical lows or midrange, and don't sell for several years. Then be all smiles, or write it all off on taxes. It's very likely there there is no bad time to purchase and hold bitcoins in 2014 or 2015, but if one buys at the peaks then one will be forced to stay in for up to or more than a year to very likely have realized profits.

 Don't dare risk what one cannot afford to lose. For that type of fund only cold hard cash or maybe with a splash of gold added to the cash would be far safer. Have a 6 month emergency fund. The banks currently pay next to nothing, and only offer an IOU of paying you back at a later date and usually on their terms, maybe not your terms. That's a terrible risk. Interest rates should be paying more than 10% today. There not. The banks and governments can't afford their debts so they steal from everyone else including slashing interest to near zero.

 After that is met (emergency fund) then build a portfolio of savings and investments.

 If one cares to gamble on a smaller number of bitcoins with some of that emergency fund I see nothing wrong with doing such a thing. In fact they could end up paying for a down payment on a home or pay for a new car in a few years time if all goes very well.

 10% of any portfolio invested in Bitcoin's this year would be prudently wise.  If one should lose it all, it's not a disaster. Much the same for gold too.

 Today 20% allocated 50/50 into bitcoins/physical gold bullion, both held in your own possession and control (not in others) is extremely wise for every portfolio above 6 months worth emergency funds. Just don't risk much of those emergency funds on Bitcoin or Gold.

 We don't know what the near future will be. The worlds biggest debt bubble and financial panics are far from over. We don't know what the powers at large will resort to but common wisdom suggests they will inflate their way and governments way's out of debt. That means extreme inflation IF true. But sometimes it doesn't work out that way. Lately it has been a mixed bag of both inflation in some sectors and deflation in others. All while wages keep falling and job losses keep rising. Forget the official figures, their wrong, their lying out their crooked false teeth. Something(s) have to give way or maybe everything gives way. We can't borrow our way out of too much public debt. Neither can banksters. Many/most will lose a lot of wealth. The smartest money long since shifted into hard assets.

 Get a grip people. I believe every person should own at least one bitcoin by now. It's extremely foolish not to own a single bitcoin by now. Interestingly there isn't nearly enough to go around. Some day people may say 'only the super wealthy own a whole bitcoin'. It could turn out that huge. Or not. It all depends.


 Bitcoin is The Strongest Store of Value as of Today. But it may or may not stay that way. Right now it's a real good time to buy bitcoins at $650 each. The market is presently signalling that the $400 to $700 current trading range may be swiftly broken at any hour or day now. We may soar right back up to $900, or $1000, or even hit all time highs in merely a few more weeks time. Many major deep pockets are still mulling over Bitcoin. Wall Street is licking their chops over Bitcoin. People, including many very wealthy people the world over are currently sizing up Bitcoin.

 Forget about what the gold bugs and the bears all cry about. Their usually a miserable bunch of losers and whiners anyway. I just handed you what I have learned. Now go learn some more about Bitcoin.

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/literature/
STT
legendary
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June 03, 2014, 08:07:00 PM
#83
The velocity of bitcoin is gigantic where as gold has its biggest users buy then hold for decades maybe centuries.  They in turn borrow against the gold as an asset, bitcoin does not have that idea nearly as much, it is transactional and extremely cheap to send and fast.   So the two are not comparing in their dynamics

Gold graph really should be much more of a flat line.   You are showing it in dollars, bingo that is volatility not gold really.   I'll see if I can find gold vs oil, that is also another way to show price and it should be flatter

pricedingold.com



Ok its got its sharp points but from start to end the price has not moved far.   This is correct pricing vs inflation etc

I would love to see BITCOIN go to zero value or Atleast to colapse to 1USD/Btc . I would buy all of them then ...

Thats incorrect sorry.  You need counterparties to trade with and really you need the btc to be with them or very available.  It would be nonsense to hold all of them.

The perfect model is if every person on the planet has 0.003 Bitcoin in their account.   Its not alot but its enough to describe a hundred or at least a dozen small transactions, the price of which is irrelevant
This is 21/7000 or btc/earth's population.  Your model of 21m/1 is topheavy like upside down pyramid, perfect liquidity is a flat model and very hard to dis-stabilise.
   Like if 99% of wealth is owned by 1% of people, that is a form of failure most would say  (Im not sure its true but it'd be bad for productivity, growth, monetary velocity most likely )
legendary
Activity: 1455
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Nothing like healthy scepticism and hard evidence
June 03, 2014, 07:53:25 PM
#82
Just try to send some gold thru the Internet, to pay for something you bought... or even try to use it to pay for something AFK.

Forget about gold, bitcoins have a long term potential for price increase (even if it might go lower again in short-term) way above gold.
sr. member
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June 03, 2014, 07:00:37 PM
#81
Gold. It will remain stable untill there will be some sort of new planet, moon or asteroid with an overflow of it - and we are able to mine it.
This seems unlikely and so i prefer earning money in a way that i am sure wont lower value. BTC is fun and risky tho.

You call that stable?




It seems quite similar to BTC's fluctuation, actually. Albeit at a slower pace.
hero member
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June 03, 2014, 06:47:01 PM
#80
Gold. It will remain stable untill there will be some sort of new planet, moon or asteroid with an overflow of it - and we are able to mine it.
This seems unlikely and so i prefer earning money in a way that i am sure wont lower value. BTC is fun and risky tho.
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