Table of contents
Abstract
Introduction
Bitcoin price in 2010
Bitcoin price in 2011
Bitcoin price in 2012 and the first bitcoin halving
Bitcoin price in 2013
Bitcoin price in 2014
Bitcoin price in 2015
Price price in 2016 and the second bitcoin halving
Bitcoin price in 2017
Price in 2018
Bitcoin price in 2019
Bitcoin price in 2020
Halving effects in 2012/2013 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap
Halving events in 2016/2017 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap
Expected outcomes of 2020 bitcoin halving
Marketcap the major determinant
What if the price of bitcoin increase
Advice
Should I invest?
Conclusion
Abstract
Bitcoin has been a successful cryptocurrency, the price has really increased significantly, but in the process, many people have gained, but if someone invested or trade bitcoin at the wrong time, it can lead to losses because there are times bitcoin price reduces too.
Nobody knows maybe bitcoin will increase in this period of halving or later the way it increased in the previous ones, but no matter what, the price will fluctuate in a way that investors and traders will be favoured but only if they have good knowledge about bitcoin investment and trading. The trading I refered to in this whole article is swing, long term trading.
Introduction
Bitcoin was invented in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, at the time bitcoin was worthless and no real transaction was made at that time until 2010. Bitcoin today is traded on non-centralized exchanges that are independent and because of this, bitcoin have slightly different bitcoin price depending on inididual exchanges. So, my prices may be slightly different from what you knew at certain time in past.
Bitcoin price in 2010
In March, 2010, bitcoin started to increase from as low as $0.0003 to as almost as high as $0.013 in October, 2010.
Bitcoin price in 2011
Bitcoin price further in 2011 increased and got to exactly $1, this was on February, 2011 and the price was later rose significantly to $30.90 in June, 2011 but later decreased and fall below $3 in December, 2011.
Bitcoin price in 2012 and the first bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin price of later rose to $12 before the first halving in November, 2012 and in December of that year, the price increase to $13 which was not significant.
Bitcoin price in 2013
Bitcoin halved in 2012 and this has significant increase in 2013, more people adopted bitcoin but not like in 2016, but the halving effect really increased the bitcoin price. In April, 2013, bitcoin price increase to almost $270 bitcoin decreased to less than $130 in May, it futher decrease to less than $70 in June, 2013. It later in July rose above $110. Later, in 2013, the price futher increased to over $200 in Novermeber but fortunately bitcoin rallied to $1200 before the end of November. In December, the price crash to $600 but later fluctuate between $600 to 855.
Bitcoin price in 2014
In 2014, the price of bitcoin increased to $1000, but later dropped to less than $800, it continue to fall in February, March and April until it fall below $350. It increase slightly in May but continue to fall after May through out the year, the price was even below $230.
Bitcoin price in 2015
Later in 2015, in March, the price of bitcoin stated to increase, it later increase to over $250 and in November, the price was a over $500
Price price in 2016 and the second bitcoin halving
In the early 2016, the price of bitcoin did not increase but even later decreased below $500 and was fluctuated until it got to $750. The price decreased below $700 before the halving in June, after this period nothing much is significant until 2017.
Bitcoin price in 2017
This was the time bitcoin was really invested on, the rate of bitcoin adoption increased, after the first week of January, bitcoin slightly decreased but after, it increased all months to $19,665.39 in December 16, 2017.
Price in 2018
Since the all time high in Demember 2017, the price fall and reach $15321.93 in January 1st, 2018, the price further decreased and the year did not favour bitcoin at all and the price was $3216 in December 14, 2018.
Bitcoin price in 2019
Bitcoin was $3970 in January, 1st, the price was not really volatile until April when it started to increase from $4000 to over $13000 in June, 16. Later the price dropped to less than $7000 in October. In December, the price was around $7300.
Bitcoin price in 2020
In January 1st, bitcoin price decreased to less than $7000 but bull run started in January, 2nd, to over $10,000 in February, 17. The price later dropped in March to a price of $3500 and now at a price above $9000.
Halving effects in 2012/2013 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap.
The price of bitcoin increased from $12 to over $1000 in the first bitcoin halving. Bitcoin increased 99x the initial value, people bought bitcoin but the halving effect makes the price increased more significantly. The marketcap of bitcoin in Q4 of 2013 was $8.92 billion and this was the time of bitcoin all time high in the period. This proves that halving itself really increase the price if compared to 2016 halving but it is also increased by marketcap but not like 2016
Halving events in 2016/2017 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap.
In the Q4 of 2017, the bitcoin marketcap was $237.62, this was the time of bitcoin all time high in history till now. So, this signifies that bitcoin was more adopted in this period than in the first halving period, but it only grew 33x than the 2016 initial price before halving.
Expected outcomes of 2020 bitcoin halving
It remains days to bitcoin halving in 2020, this will be when it remains only 2,625,000 btc that will be mined, the mining reward will halve from 12.5 btc to 6.25 btc, this will probably occur on May 14, 2020. Many people are hoping that the price of bitcoin will increase after halving, there have been increase some days before halving already, which will can not still call it increase because the halving day has not occurred yet. In this halving or after, marketcap will be the major determination.
Marketcap the major determinant
The price of bitcoin will be determined more by increase in marketcap than halving effect this time, the market cap can be increased only if people adopt bitcoin more. Because, we can not determine the rate at which people will buy bitcoin this time, we can not determine what the price of bitcoin will be but likely that the price will increase. Because more 75% of bitcoin would have been mined before 2020 halving, the supply that will be cut will not have much significant like the increase in marketcap.
What if the price of bitcoin increase
Before bitcoin will reach another all time high, the marketcap will be more than 2017 all time high marketcap because the supply of bitcoin has increased compared to when it reached the all time high in December, 2017. So, to get to all time high may not be possible soon or early.
In first halving, bitcoin price increased 99x
In the second halving, bitcoin price increased 33x
This is an indication that the halving this period can not be significant than last ones. But this is just a prediction.
Advice
If the price since 2010 is carefully analyzed, you will know that crypto traders can also gain not only in the halving time, the price of bitcoin do fluctuate and good traders will turn it to profit. I will advice anyone that want to invest on bitcoin to always look at the price chart daily, setting price alerts because bitcoin can increase or decrease at any time, because during this price of bitcoin that really increased over time, there are still some periods even after halving that did not favour bitcoin in which the price really fall. So, this time is not just about Investment but to also have good knowledge about bitcoin investment and trading.
Also, about people that have no knowledge but only want to invest, check the prices above, you will know that you can lose, in the first halving, the price of bitcoin was over $1200 in 2013 but later decreased to less than $300 what if you have invested and lose. Another is when the price was at $19665 in December, 2017 but the price later dropped below $4000 the following year in 2018. Some people lost that time too. Make sure you know about bitcoin before trading or investing in it, do not just invest because of halving.
Should I invest
I will still have to repeat this, have good knowledge about bitcoin investment and trading because it will help you. If you invest, it means you are supporting bitcoin adoption and your investment will help because it can be small but it is part of the bitcoin marketcap.
Conclusion
Bitcoin investment and swing trading is good and profitable, but do not just do this because of the coming halving, learn about it, and take more time to learn. You can invest because your investment counts and helps in the bitcoin valuation.