Topic: Bitcoin price will reach $25 by the end of the year (Read 6169 times)
It seems that the lending services OPs have started to do their thing in the range of 7.8$ <-> 9.2$. Do you really think that there are any kind of demand on borrowing BTC for such lending services? I think the lending services are collecting BTC just for day trading with huge amounts. It seems that their target now is 1$ profit per round. This is just speculation.
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That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.
That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.
Hey, mobodick, excelent and exhaustive explanation as for me, thank you.
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..
RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.
I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.
from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "
This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...
Actually, they frequently pushed transactions through to mtgox and even published what percent was hedged each day. The only time it didn't go through was when two customers took opposite sides of the same bet.
That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.
Cool story bro. How much of the source code have you read? If the answer is 0, how can you be so sure you know how it operated?
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..
RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.
I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.
from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "
This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...
Actually, they frequently pushed transactions through to mtgox and even published what percent was hedged each day. The only time it didn't go through was when two customers took opposite sides of the same bet.
That frequency was no where near the trading frequency.
Inbetween the transfers it was effectively a bucketshop and everything was canceled against everything else.
So by definition of US law (see above) they were a bucket shop most of the time.
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..
RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.
I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.
from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "
This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...
Actually, they frequently pushed transactions through to mtgox and even published what percent was hedged each day. The only time it didn't go through was when two customers took opposite sides of the same bet.
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..
RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
For bitcoinica to NOT be a bucketshop they would need to push through their users transactions to mtgox.
They were not, they kept the transactions local most of the time and once in a while they did a bulk transaction with mtgox.
So most of the time people on bitcoinica were only playing against oter people on bitcoinica.
That is a bucketshop.
I think even Zhou refered to it as his little bucketshop.
The sad thing is that a shop like bitcoinica cannot actually function without having some bucketshop characteristics. The infrastructure is just not there to do it all in real time so what Zhou actually created was pretty impressive.
It was just impossible to NOT make it a bucketshop and still offer leverage afaik.
from wikipedia:
"As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a Bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in." "
This was what bitcoinica was except for the brief times where they did bulk updates against mtgox to bring their shop in balance.
Again, MOST of the time people played against other people there.
As long as people understand this i don't think there is anything wrong with that...
Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though.
Bitpay still has the BTC, they refuse to sell em which is the main reason we are up this fast.
People buy BTC to preorder BFL units > price goes up > Bitpay refuses to deal on the exchanges and is looking for private deals > missing selling pressure > others notice that and start buying because it's easy driving up the price.
Your evidence for this? By "the BTC" do you mean all the coins, even those from 6/23 sales? They have said that they won't just dump coins on the market b/c they don't want to drive down price. But otherwise they seem eager to sell. If you have a link or something showing that they are holding most of the coins, I'd like to see it - as far as I can tell they haven't said much about what exactly they are doing with the coins. What little they did say suggests to me that they are selling the coins gradually - i.e. as quickly as they can without driving down price.
...
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
And what it was?
A trading platform with leverage. All trades were done either on Mtgox as a hedge or internally if two different people took opposite positions.
Bitcoinica fucked up a lot of things (Or atleast the Intersango guys did), yes. But it wasn't a bucketshop. Bitcoinica never took positions against their clients.
...
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
And what it was?
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..
RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Except Bitcoinica wasn't a bucketshop.
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Seing the history of bitcoin it could be anywhere between $2 and $50....
Depends on how greedy the speculation will get.
Another factor is whether there will be a new bucketshop on leverage that will suck up the speculation.
I think that around $5 was the natural nonspeculated price of bitcoin (with bitcoinica entertaining the speculators in their little shop of buckets) so we are now in a speculation bubble.
Wait for it to burst and sell before that happens.
Speaking of bubbles..
RAAAALLLYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
So the first event should be a rise in BTC price "with no relation to mining". Good point! So what do you think about the price of BTC @ 25$ by the end of the year?
Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though.
Bitpay still has the BTC, they refuse to sell em which is the main reason we are up this fast.
People buy BTC to preorder BFL units > price goes up > Bitpay refuses to deal on the exchanges and is looking for private deals > missing selling pressure > others notice that and start buying because it's easy driving up the price.
Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though.
Okay saying nearly doubled was a stretch. I'll make the same post in a week or so
Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
Huh? BTC was at 6.4 on 6/23 when they opened the presale. Nowhere near 12 yet. Also, I'm pretty sure Bitpay converted to USD for them. Would have been smart for them to hold the BTC though.
Well hopefully butterfly labs didn't sell all the BTC they got for the pre orders.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
If they didn't they have nearly doubled their money.
Thats why difficulty increases with every single GH added to the network.
No it doesn't.
Difficulty increases with a higher GH/s rate, not just with every GH.
So the current -speed- of mining decides difficulty.
Less people currently mining = less difficulty.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ shows this clearly.
Between 1 year and 6 months ago the difficulty was falling because hashrate was falling because the price was falling.
Mining cost + difficulty indeed affect the supply!
No it didn't.
So why would it do that in the future?
Difficulty adjusts itself to hashrate.
Hashrate lags on price and difficulty lags on hashrate.
So difficulty is decided by the market price
So there is a relation there.
The higher the price of bitcoin, the more people are willing to mine.
But forget about ROI or other such fantasies.
ROI can only be calculated if you know the future price, which is the same as crystal ball fondling in bitcoin land.
ROI in bitcoin is a fantasy.
Being a miner for a year I can say that so far I have never been compelled to sell my mined coins for fiat because they cost me to mine. I have been saving most of them until the economy is more mature, buying goods with BTC now and then.
I hope it hits $25 I am bullish long term for BTC, it has already once and proven resilient in the face of so much drama so imo its a matter of time not if.
I hope it hits $25 I am bullish long term for BTC, it has already once and proven resilient in the face of so much drama so imo its a matter of time not if.
Suppliers can not go lower than the ROI of 12 months of the mining cost "thats why BTC didn't drop lower than ~2$", and can not go higher than the ROI of 3 to 4 months of mining cost "thats why BTC highest traded price during the last year was ~7.2". But today the equation has changed with the ASIC expected delivery date! GPU and FPGA miners has to return the investment in a shorter time frame. Such time frame is geting shorter every single day.
Do you have any facts that support these satements?
How is $2 related to some 12 month ROI?
How is $7 related to some 3 month ROI?
Why can suppliers not go lower (or higher) than 12 months ROI?
"The price of Bitcoin is usually related at a certain level to the expenses involved in producing 1 BTC. "
Did it cost 32 dollar to make one bitcoin in June 2011? Nope.
Did it cost 2 dollar to make one bitcoin in November 2011? Nope.
Then why do you think it is true now?
Most people mine with GPUs from day one.
Also, the most efficient GPU for that job was available when bitcoin boomed last year.
Yet the price managed to fluctuate between 32 and 2 dollar.
It would be bizar to relate this swing to the specific form of mining going on at the time as it was all mostly GPU mining with similar ROI. Mining did not change significantly, but bitcoin price swung by an order of magnitude.
As i see it, ROI is completely dependant on price and is thus just another float on the sea of speculation.
You cannot predict ROI in the bitcoin ecosystem. It is just not stable enough.
So actually thinking about mining rig ROI in this economy is nonsense. You just don't know.
Funny thing is that most miners kept mining at $2. This means most miners were somehow losing money (extending the ROI faster than they could make up by selling their mined coins. Break even point is covering electricity costs (if extended to infinity the buying price of the rig becomes insignificant) so the price could not have gotten lower than the price you pay in electricity to mine one coin. Yet it did and people were still mining.
People were mining despite the fact that their rigs had ininite+ ROI.
Mining is therefore a speculative undertaking and has no simple direct relation to current price.
You need to take into account the miners expectation of future price.
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