Actually its vice versa: Any one who claims that the rise in the price has no relation with mining, ASIC, FPGA, BFL, ... is totally misunderstanding Bitcoin
Why?
The price of Bitcoin is usually related at a certain level to the expenses involved in producing 1 BTC.
Many people believe this.
It's nonsense. Consider the expenses required in producing one bucket of fine sand from the bottom of the ocean floor. This sand would cost thousands of dollars to bring to market. How much will the sand be worth? It won't be worth anything, because nobody wants it. It is not useful.
Bitcoin's price comes not from the cost of producing it, but from the ever-changing balance of supply and demand of the coins. The price is far more reliant on "how useful the world finds Bitcoin to be" and far less reliant on "how much it costs to make a new one."
The supply of newly mined coins is constant (7200 per day right now). No amount of new mining technology, or new interest in mining, will ever change this new supply rate. When the rate halves in December, perhaps the price will be higher due to somewhat smaller supply (remember new coins are only a part of supply at any given time), but again this has nothing at all to do with mining.
The only way that mining
would significantly influence Bitcoin price is if it changed the rate of coin production. And in this case, the new technology would make greater supply, and thus push the bitcoin price down, not up.
Thus it is strongly related to difficulty and the ROI of the mining hardware. If you can buy a mining device that has a ROI of 4 to 8 months, so immediately Bitcoin price adjusts to such value. No one would buy BTC @ 20$ where he can buy a device for 400$ to 600$ that has a ROI of 4 to 8 months. Also difficulty plays a big rule here. The easier it is to mine 1 BTC the lower value its gonna be traded, and when difficulty and ROI of hardware rises "which is the situation with ASIC", only then BTC price can start to rise.
What makes me confident about BTC price reaching 25$ by the end of 2012 beginning of 2013 is that when ASIC hits the network the ROI of any FPGA device will turn into 3 to 5 years instead of ~6 months. And with the 25 BTC block reward, the ROI of ASIC devices would be more than 12 months. So the price of BTC will adjust according to these facts "whenever it happen" to turn ROI of ASIC into an acceptable level of around "6 months".
^all of the above is irrelevant, given my prior statement