Bitcoin Prices Crashing Now! - page 4.

viboracecata

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Varanida : Fair & Transparent Digital Ecosystem

Quote from: johnyj on July 03, 2013, 08:07:38 PM

FED is going to tighten, the institutional traders get less quota to operate on bitcoin trading, means USD outflow

And there are two facts:

1. The number of people who have accumulated enough coins are increasing
2. The bitcoin price now is at a level that it can support some serious spending, 10 bitcoin can buy you a travel package

After someone have acquired hundreds and thousands of bitcoin, they might consider spend 5-10 coins to buy something, since this will not affect their total holding but still provide some usage

The problem is that currently there are still not a lot you can buy with bitcoin. In most of the cases you can only sell it and spend fiat, if there are lots of merchat accept bitcoin, for those people who want to spend the coins, they could just spend them, there will be no sell presure on the exchange

Agreed

DPoS

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Quote from: johnyj on July 03, 2013, 08:07:38 PM

FED is going to tighten, the institutional traders get less quota to operate on bitcoin trading, means USD outflow

And there are two facts:

1. The number of people who have accumulated enough coins are increasing
2. The bitcoin price now is at a level that it can support some serious spending, 10 bitcoin can buy you a travel package

After someone have acquired hundreds and thousands of bitcoin, they might consider spend 5-10 coins to buy something, since this will not affect their total holding but still provide some usage

The problem is that currently there are still not a lot you can buy with bitcoin. In most of the cases you can only sell it and spend fiat, if there are lots of merchat accept bitcoin, for those people who want to spend the coins, they could just spend them, there will be no sell presure on the exchange

not completely... that is only one step further. The merchants will need to have a cycle for the btc or they will need to be converted anyway.

B2B btc transaction is a key component to stabalize the price. But not sure how many are in the position to do that heavy lifting.

-- If the Winkle Twins wanted to really be revolutionary, and not just dump their coins in a ETF, they would create a Commercial Paper system based on btc for small size businesses. That would allow the coins to have a home that cycles.

mechs

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I do not think it will get down that low, though in the low 60s I would be a buyer assuming no new bad news

Kazu

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Quote from: mechs on July 03, 2013, 08:07:11 PM

Why because that was the "flash crash" level?

Yup, nobody's going to want to sell below that. Look at market depth, even without the inevitable wall that'll form right there, youd need almost 47000 BTC sold to go below that level. Thats practically half a winklevoss.

3btc

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What about just someone trying to kill Gox?

mechs

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Interestingly, just in the last 24 hours the arbitage opportunities between the 4 major USD exchanges by volume (Mt. Gox, bitstamp, btc-e and CampBX) have all but vanished during this vicious sell-off.
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html
Looks like there is a bit of a bounce and plateau now - the question is will it hold the weekend - hell, will it hold the next couple hours?

johnyj

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Beyond Imagination

FED is going to tighten, the institutional traders get less quota to operate on bitcoin trading, means USD outflow

And there are two facts:

1. The number of people who have accumulated enough coins are increasing
2. The bitcoin price now is at a level that it can support some serious spending, 10 bitcoin can buy you a travel package

After someone have acquired hundreds and thousands of bitcoin, they might consider spend 5-10 coins to buy something, since this will not affect their total holding but still provide some usage

The problem is that currently there are still not a lot you can buy with bitcoin. In most of the cases you can only sell it and spend fiat, if there are lots of merchat accept bitcoin, for those people who want to spend the coins, they could just spend them, there will be no sell presure on the exchange

mechs

full member

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Why because that was the "flash crash" level?

Kazu

full member

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I still think that the bottom will be at $57. So we still have like $25 more to fall before its finally over.

Tonko

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OMG, BTC SHTF!

TheBanker

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Quote from: viboracecata on July 03, 2013, 07:27:25 PM

Quote from: N12 on July 03, 2013, 07:10:44 PM

I will just quote another poster:

Quote from: xorglub on July 03, 2013, 07:02:42 PM

People see price going down, panic sell, causing price to go down even more, more panic selling, rinse and repeat. No fundamental reason behind it, it's pure speculation.
It was the same on the way up to $266.

I'm always thinking about one problem, if I use $1000 to buy 10 bitcoins, I'm afraid no panic, If you fear the price dropping, maybe you invest at least $10000 in it, why you just want to hoard more but not try to spread bitcoins?

Because you ultimately cant do very much with the BTC. You wouldnt put $10,000 in unless you were reasonably sure that you could get about $10,000 worth of products from BTC. If you dont think you can actually use the BTC then you probably wouldn't make the investment at all, regardless of the price.

viboracecata

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Varanida : Fair & Transparent Digital Ecosystem

Quote from: N12 on July 03, 2013, 07:10:44 PM

I will just quote another poster:

Quote from: xorglub on July 03, 2013, 07:02:42 PM

People see price going down, panic sell, causing price to go down even more, more panic selling, rinse and repeat. No fundamental reason behind it, it's pure speculation.
It was the same on the way up to $266.

I'm always thinking about one problem, if I use $1000 to buy 10 bitcoins, I'm afraid no panic, If you fear the price dropping, maybe you invest at least $10000 in it, why you just want to hoard more but not try to spread bitcoins?

TheBanker

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Quote from: mechs on July 03, 2013, 07:22:09 PM

every round of panic selling has some sort of trigger - true panic selling begets panic selling of speculators, particularly those buying on margin or with automatic stop losses in place. Still, tere must have been something to trigger the initial plunge in prices with the huge uptake in volume that has set the selling off, right?!

Of course there was a trigger. Are you not aware that Gox is not doing well?

mechs

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every round of panic selling has some sort of trigger - true panic selling begets panic selling of speculators, particularly those buying on margin or with automatic stop losses in place. Still, tere must have been something to trigger the initial plunge in prices with the huge uptake in volume that has set the selling off, right?!

TheBanker

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Activity: 125

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Quote from: N12 on July 03, 2013, 07:10:44 PM

I will just quote another poster:

Quote from: xorglub on July 03, 2013, 07:02:42 PM

People see price going down, panic sell, causing price to go down even more, more panic selling, rinse and repeat. No fundamental reason behind it, it's pure speculation.
It was the same on the way up to $266.

If you see the potential failure of the exchange that claims to handle 80% of BTC transactions as "pure speculation" then I'd like to interest you in a nice timeshare in Boca . . .

N12

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I will just quote another poster:

Quote from: xorglub on July 03, 2013, 07:02:42 PM

People see price going down, panic sell, causing price to go down even more, more panic selling, rinse and repeat. No fundamental reason behind it, it's pure speculation.
It was the same on the way up to $266.

TheBanker

member

Activity: 125

Merit: 10

Quote from: mechs on July 03, 2013, 06:52:05 PM

The Mt. Gox news has only improved over the last week. They went from freezing all USD withdrawals to continue processing, albeit slowly, on a manual basis while they work on opening a new bank account. Also, they are making moves to comply with the us AML provisions. Listen, for the last 6 weeks, this has gone from $130 to $70s. However, today and in particular a span of 2 hours, the volume quadruples and it sold off from high 80s down to the mid-70s in a couple hours. That is a sign of panic selling in an illiquid market - the quesion is, what was the news or precipitating factor which started this panic selling? It could even have been a single or couple of holders dumping and driving the prices down.

Be careful with calling this "improved news". As I've posted in other parts of these forums, I think that the FinCen registration is a red herring. I've done FinCen registration, its literally just one form, very simple, you dont even need a lawyer. You simply pledge to have KYC policies in place and that you will abide by reporting rules (CTR, SAR, etc). Its really not a very complex process. Personally, I think the FinCen registration is nothing but a red herring designed to make you feel better (obviously, it's working!) but the reality is that Gox is most likely in a world of hurt right now and bad news and even worst times are on the horizon.

BitChick

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Quote from: mechs on July 03, 2013, 06:52:05 PM

The Mt. Gox news has only improved over the last week. They went from freezing all USD withdrawals to continue processing, albeit slowly, on a manual basis while they work on opening a new bank account. Also, they are making moves to comply with the us AML provisions. Listen, for the last 6 weeks, this has gone from $130 to $70s. However, today and in particular a span of 2 hours, the volume quadruples and it sold off from high 80s down to the mid-70s in a couple hours. That is a sign of panic selling in an illiquid market - the quesion is, what was the news or precipitating factor which started this panic selling? It could even have been a single or couple of holders dumping and driving the prices down.

Perhaps people are not aware that Mt. Gox has been trying to process withdrawals manually and are on their way to making things operate in a better way? I think with the deadline for the 2 week hold on withdrawals looming tomorrow, people are panicking and worried something else is going on.

mechs

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The Mt. Gox news has only improved over the last week. They went from freezing all USD withdrawals to continue processing, albeit slowly, on a manual basis while they work on opening a new bank account. Also, they are making moves to comply with the us AML provisions. Listen, for the last 6 weeks, this has gone from $130 to $70s. However, today and in particular a span of 2 hours, the volume quadruples and it sold off from high 80s down to the mid-70s in a couple hours. That is a sign of panic selling in an illiquid market - the quesion is, what was the news or precipitating factor which started this panic selling? It could even have been a single or couple of holders dumping and driving the prices down.

nexus99

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http://www.extremetech.com/computing/160043-bitcoin-compliant-mt-gox-registers-as-money-service-seeks-federal-blessing-to-continue-operations

Maybe people are realizing what's is going on with MtGOX.

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