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Topic: Bitcoin prophesy (Read 4006 times)

legendary
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
April 02, 2014, 12:35:49 PM
#31
How many bonus Bitcoins do i get if all my predictions come true!!!!!

Dear God it was a vision!
legendary
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
January 27, 2014, 08:06:46 PM
#30
I'm not too sure coinbase could fail on it's own this year with the 25m from AH.

Coinbase looks pretty solid at this time
newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
January 17, 2014, 02:24:48 AM
#29
I'm not too sure coinbase could fail on it's own this year with the 25m from AH.
legendary
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
January 16, 2014, 10:54:06 AM
#28
This thread is dedicated to bad news prophecies only?

Heck no, is $3k Bitcoin at the end of 2015 bad news? ....Well maybe for some people Smiley

um yes, $3k bitcoin is 2015 is pretty shitty

Please please let it be a shitty 2015 then....
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
Giga
January 16, 2014, 10:32:42 AM
#27
This thread is dedicated to bad news prophecies only?

Heck no, is $3k Bitcoin at the end of 2015 bad news? ....Well maybe for some people Smiley

um yes, $3k bitcoin is 2015 is pretty shitty
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
January 16, 2014, 09:18:55 AM
#26
Where do the people who are not miners get their coins? They buy them. So they have costs as well. Does the price going up somehow drive them to sell because they incurred costs to buy bitcoin?

Here you are just being silly. Smiley


sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
January 16, 2014, 09:17:55 AM
#25
No, what I mean is that, the higher the price, the bigger the selling pressure coming from miners becomes.   See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/miners-running-costs-must-pass-trough-exchanges-this-limits-the-bitcoin-price-414657

That argument doesn't make sense. Why would you treat miners different than holders of coin?

Because they are different. 

Miners collectively get their 3600 BTC daily.  Miners have running costs.

Holders get nothing.  Holders have no running costs.

See, two differences.

This 3600, expressed in dollars, is proportional to the price of Bitcoin.  So, at $1000 per BTC, this becomes $3.6 million.   This is the maximum amount that the miners in total can spend on electricity.   Miners will add new hardware until they get close to this limit, perhaps with-in 50%.  This is a simple economic argument.

So, we are going toward a situation where miners have to pay perhaps $1.8 million daily, and utility companies are still not accepting Bitcoins.  This means, this amount of daily money must come from
somewhere:  miners sell on exchanges.

Also, once the price of Bitcoin changes, this amount changes as well, so we have a feedback mechanism, the higher the price, more miners have to sell, and selling tends to reduce the price.

Holders don't have this situation, and this is why we treat them differently.



sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
January 15, 2014, 11:29:27 PM
#24
I see.  So what you're saying is that the higher the price goes, the less it is worth.

Yes, you are very funny.  No, what I mean is that, the higher the price, the bigger the selling pressure coming from miners becomes.   See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/miners-running-costs-must-pass-trough-exchanges-this-limits-the-bitcoin-price-414657

That argument doesn't make sense. Why would you treat miners different than holders of coin? Do they have mining costs? Sure. They have costs incurred that results in them getting bitcoins. Where do the people who are not miners get their coins? They buy them. So they have costs as well. Does the price going up somehow drive them to sell because they incurred costs to buy bitcoin?
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
January 15, 2014, 09:51:20 PM
#23
I see.  So what you're saying is that the higher the price goes, the less it is worth.

Yes, you are very funny.  No, what I mean is that, the higher the price, the bigger the selling pressure coming from miners becomes.   See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/miners-running-costs-must-pass-trough-exchanges-this-limits-the-bitcoin-price-414657
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
January 15, 2014, 09:28:27 PM
#22
I bet I can find at least 10 posts claiming that Gox won't make it till 2014.

Also the republic of Congo will choose FellatioCoin , get it while it's....fresh?hot?sticky?



And 10 more claiming Litecoin will be on Gox in 2 weeks.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
January 15, 2014, 09:17:35 PM
#21
I bet I can find at least 10 posts claiming that Gox won't make it till 2014.

Also the republic of Congo will choose FellatioCoin , get it while it's....fresh?hot?sticky?

legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
January 15, 2014, 09:14:26 PM
#20
Yeah.... $3k by end of 2015 is extremely disappointing compared to past performance. I would call this bad news


Since bitcoin in probably the only financial instrument where increase in price causes a guaranteed increased selling pressure, due to the fact that miners have to cover their costs,  I would say that any strong past performance will actually cause the price to decline in the future, and not continue in the up direction.

So, if it stays at 1k at the end of 2014, this would be extremely surprising result.




I see.  So what you're saying is that the higher the price goes, the less it is worth.
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
January 15, 2014, 06:32:00 PM
#19
Yeah.... $3k by end of 2015 is extremely disappointing compared to past performance. I would call this bad news


Since bitcoin in probably the only financial instrument where increase in price causes a guaranteed increased selling pressure, due to the fact that miners have to cover their costs,  I would say that any strong past performance will actually cause the price to decline in the future, and not continue in the up direction.

So, if it stays at 1k at the end of 2014, this would be extremely surprising result.


legendary
Activity: 1330
Merit: 1000
dafar consulting
January 15, 2014, 04:44:41 PM
#18
This thread is dedicated to bad news prophecies only?

Heck no, is $3k Bitcoin at the end of 2015 bad news? ....Well maybe for some people Smiley


Yeah.... $3k by end of 2015 is extremely disappointing compared to past performance. I would call this bad news
sr. member
Activity: 254
Merit: 250
Digital money you say?
January 15, 2014, 04:24:12 PM
#17
$50 coins? I wish. Have you been looking at my Christmas list?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
January 15, 2014, 04:20:20 PM
#16

2014-2016
A new decentralized monetary system is created by a known software company that will outmatch bitcoin in general quality. 99,9% of funds flow from bitcoin to this new coin.
This is the only thing I am quite sure of Smiley Hard to predict when will it happen though.

If ripple can't do it, it's unlikely anyone else can.
legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1147
The revolution will be monetized!
January 15, 2014, 04:11:16 PM
#15
2014-2016
A new decentralized monetary system is created by a known software company that will outmatch bitcoin in general quality. 99,9% of funds flow from bitcoin to this new coin.


This is the only thing I am quite sure of Smiley Hard to predict when will it happen though.

There might be a new more compelling coin someday, but it is not going to come from a software company. One of the most important things about bitcoin is it's open source nature. No proprietary software can ever compete with bitcoin because of trust. I would not give a penny for some company's stupid coupons. Coupons that they control the value and supply of? Please.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
January 15, 2014, 04:00:16 PM
#14
$50 per coin WAHAHAHAHAHAH bet your having wet dreams .... Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
January 15, 2014, 07:05:00 AM
#13
2014-2016
A new decentralized monetary system is created by a known software company that will outmatch bitcoin in general quality. 99,9% of funds flow from bitcoin to this new coin.


This is the only thing I am quite sure of Smiley Hard to predict when will it happen though.

Maybe you are joking but if not you are not allowing for psychology.

Bitcoin has massive momentum compared to all others. And psychologically this momentum counts for much more than the sum of its technical, geographical, business, etc. parts.

The fact that there are so many altcoins actually counts against them. You've got "Bitcoin... then all the rest" and not "Bitcoin... and its three competitors" for example. Litecoin is miles away from Bitcoin. The fact that there are so many alts cheapens them and also makes people automatically more suspicious of any new attempt to "jump on the bandwagon" and create a new coin. It has already got to farcical levels with Coinye etc. This is a sign that creating a new coin, even if it comes from a big player, government or business, will be very tough right now. Any new coin will have to gain traction by itself and the sign it is really something will of course be when its price is not tied to Bitcoin. I cannot see a serious altcoin competitor overtaking Bitcoin for a long time - absolute minimum several years (between 5 to 7) before this might begin to happen.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 250
January 15, 2014, 05:43:23 AM
#12
2014-2016
A new decentralized monetary system is created by a known software company that will outmatch bitcoin in general quality. 99,9% of funds flow from bitcoin to this new coin.


This is the only thing I am quite sure of Smiley Hard to predict when will it happen though.

Intruiging! Can I kindly ask on what this is based, or did a little bird tell you?
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