So if the bandwidth requirement grows at 30% per year then the technology will always be able to handle it along the way. Currently we are at almost 100% per year increase of transaction volume, so in 7 years you would need 1Gbps to handle, but that is already available in some area today, so at least in a decade there will not be a problem
that's ridiculous. you're basing this on the best possible scenario, and suggesting that the entire network should be running nodes on the best connections in the world. you can't begin to prove that technological improvements and internet infrastructure will keep pace. bitcoin, like any other engineering project and large scale system, should be planned with the
worst case scenarios in mind. not the best case scenarios.
In worst case scenario you still have some people running dial-up network and GSM phone (in fact a lot of people), so the bitcoin data traffic should be reduced by 100 times following your logic
If you prefer settlement system, then I'm thinking about a settlement layer for networks. You do the data settlement on backbone internet between thousands of full nodes with 1GB bandwidth, while the rest of the nodes are running SPV nodes and require much less bandwidth. This model is much simpler to handle than a financial settlement system
i'm smelling some allusion to moore's law, so i'll just leave this here:
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/02/moores-law-really-is-dead-this-time/Moore’s law really is dead this time
The chip industry is no longer going to treat Gordon Moore's law as the target to aim for.
[...]
Intel originally planned to switch to 10nm in 2016 with the Cannonlake processor, a shrunk version of the 14nm Skylakes shipping today. In July last year, the company changed this plan. An extra processor generation, Kaby Lake, will be released in 2016, still using the 14nm process.
[...]
The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors decided in 2014 that its next roadmap would no longer be beholden to Moore's "law"
[...]
Moore's law's time as a guide of what will come next, and as a rule to be followed, is at an end.
it's funny, i remember bitcoin being sold as a "solution for the unbanked." never mind that the unbanked are largely limited to 3G/4G connections which are unable to run a node to validate their own transactions.
so much for "being your own bank" eh?Semiconductor technology has almost reached its physical limitation, so the current trend is just adding more chips, like you did in GPU mining instead of CPU mining
However the theoretical limit of Optical Fiber has not been reached yet, and average home are not using Fiber yet (Some part of the world is deploying fiber to home) a fiber in theory can at least handle TB level data. And today's commercial solutions already can provide 100GB bandwidth. If you have 5000 private companies running nodes on 10GB network, we already can handle the traffic for the next 10 years
And there is a point people usually forget: We are already at 1million + users today, if the amount of users doubles each year, then in 10 years you will have 1 billion people in the world using bitcoin, which is highly unlikely. So it seems that if we don't have a bottleneck in the next 5 years, we will never have it
i'm having a tough time understanding the point youre making here.
It is obvious that Moore's law does not apply with user growth either, so you won't have exponential traffic volume growth. In fact I think in one decade there will be maximum 10 million users, which you already can handle with today's infrastructure