OK, I have checked where the funds go from my deposit address and I can report that the funds in the next step mostly go to addresses that are used heavily with large volumes.
These large addresses have something like a hundred or so transactions (one big one had many thousands transactions) with a total BTC volume in the many thousands (the big one even had a few million).
This pattern would seem to be inconsistent with a ponzi scheme because in that case he would be passing on the funds to individual account holders who typically do not use BTC in that way. He could of course try to mask that by concentrating his funds in a few addresses first before passing them on. But that also not what he is doing, because some of the funds are indeed passed directly on to little-used addresses.
Also, the BTC volume of the "big one" speaks for this being a proper operation. In the case of a ponzi it would only be possible to get that volume if Pirate were deliberately making it that way by sending BTC to himself. By just passing the deposits through to the withdrawals like in a ponzi he would not get that volume.
IMHO this pattern is consistent with what Pirate has said he is doing.
Topic: Bitcoin Savings and Trust | Home | Closed - page 7. (Read 802116 times)
Those that accuse of a ponzi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5QGkOGZubQ&feature=related
Those that have already made their investment back from the payouts: "LOL"
Those that have already made their investment back from the payouts: "LOL"
I see walls of text, but no argument 
-- what does this have to do with Pirateat40 giving away free money?
-- what does this have to do with Pirateat40 giving away free money?Then perhaps you still have blinders on; reread what was written and sleep on it. Would Marie Antoinette have favored her head over lavish parties if she knew what the consequences of her behavior would be?
Let's see if I can make this even easier in just four words:
Reputation cannot be bought.
the whale manipulations and walls we see on mtgox for past several months i think can be attributed to pirate's business, if not directly by him then by those to whom he brokers bitcoins - those who massively invest in btc through pirate at high premiums most certainly like to see returns on their investments.
Post deposit transactions to BTCS&T and trace them to MtGox or 
!Seriously, why all this speculation?
Already discussed and defended ad nauseum: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.916286
would you rather make 10.65% a week but have some risk of losing your capital if bitcoin fails OR would rather make only 4.67% a week using someone else's capital and have pretty much no risk whatsoever. I think pirate would be stupid to risk his own money.
Do you really want me to do that math for you?
Okay. Whatever. Difference in yields there is 5.98%. Amortization time of risking own money: 12 weeks. However, Pirateat40 pays 7%, so it's shorter even! Bitcoin has survived trading for decent amounts for over a year now, so the decision to use other people's money is a massive loss for him already. In fact, a factor 5.7 using these understated client yields.
Plus, just investing the earnings from the current scheme now and kicking people out would not risk a bitcent of his starting capital!
This is a joke. Next argument, please?
following thoughts come with an assumption that pirate's business is not a ponzi for argument's sake
i figure pirate doesn't have a luxury to keep all the profits for himself otherwise it would be poorly reflected on overall bitcoin economy, he would acquire massive amount of bitcoins but since no one else making such great returns bitcoin demand and price could potentially significantly degrade which could lead to his business drying up as well. by distributing wealth throughout his lenders he ensures bitcoin economy keeps floating and therefore bitcoin demand and attractiveness continues to stay on level and increase.
the whale manipulations and walls we see on mtgox for past several months i think can be attributed to pirate's business, if not directly by him then by those to whom he brokers bitcoins - those who massively invest in btc through pirate at high premiums most certainly like to see returns on their investments. so we've seen exchange rate moved from $2 to $7+ then back below $5 reaching $6.8+ recently and will be going down dozen or so percentages then going back up, until new demand outpaces current manipulation. the market manipulation is psychological but it works very well - no one going to buy into massive walls knowing full well they could buy in at lower rates, market rushes to take profits only to re-buy later at lower rates - this will continue as long as new demand catches up and outgrows it.
@miscreanity quote inception:
I see walls of text, but no argument -- what does this have to do with Pirateat40 giving away free money?
If he doesn't pay someone somewhere, that person will still blame him no matter what he does on the Bitcoin forum. The current scheme in theory reduces his overall funds after a very short time.
The question why to still share such massive yields remains unanswered. The highest accounts still list 7%, the heck?
Face it, these "investors" Are not doing anything a trader with such profits would need. What's the great service of eating up so much money that the deal with them rapidly goes into the red? My guess: none of the "investors" would act that way if they were in Pirateat40's supposed position, they're just too lazy to ever think about it.
I see walls of text, but no argument
-- what does this have to do with Pirateat40 giving away free money?If he doesn't pay someone somewhere, that person will still blame him no matter what he does on the Bitcoin forum. The current scheme in theory reduces his overall funds after a very short time.
The question why to still share such massive yields remains unanswered. The highest accounts still list 7%, the heck?
Face it, these "investors" Are not doing anything a trader with such profits would need. What's the great service of eating up so much money that the deal with them rapidly goes into the red? My guess: none of the "investors" would act that way if they were in Pirateat40's supposed position, they're just too lazy to ever think about it.
I say with great certainty that this pirate ponzi-pussy-piecing bullshit will collapse within 3 weeks. The whole thing reeks of poo. Every single time I come on this forum I am confronted with more evidence. For example, what reasoning would Pirate have to publically post a "I'll be here in this building, on this date" thread.
When it comes crashing down. The whole community will join in.
When it comes crashing down. The whole community will join in.
Boom! I'd like to see ponzi "investor" apologist try and defend against this one.. Why does pirate still share his profits? Charity? 
From the A day in the life of a pirate thread:
Could you clarify please. What would be an example of an operation where having USD liabilites as opposed BTC liabilities is by 2-3 orders of magnitude more risky?
Ok lets say your business was in "pet rocks".
...
I don't know about you but that's what risk management means to me.
The way I reckon, that view is a much more responsible one than most here are assuming. To put it as Jim Sinclair might say, the days of colonial style wealth extraction that only benefit those at the top are over.
Sure, the concentration of wealth from a successful venture might be extreme at the top, but it leads to impoverishment and resentment of those involved, whether directly or indirectly. A rising tide raises all ships, but wealth extraction holds many underwater.
Instead of hoarding his shiny Bitcoins and his proprietary venture a la Facebook, Pirate is granting access to a potentially risky investment. Doing so means that no other business doing the same can offer as high a rate of return without copying his profit-sharing model.
As for his risk, it is not so much that Bitcoin might fail, but that those whom he is obligated to might come after him with pitchforks, demanding blood. To lessen or eliminate the latter, he is sharing access to his operation - in the event of failure, he'll step down as Captain of the ship rather than be forced to walk the plank like Jamie Dimon.
In light of that, lead on, Captain Pirate!
Reading posts like this makes me smile. There're still smart people in this community and it's those people I've learned to surround myself with.
"Surround yourself with like-minded people who want to see you successful." - Robert Kiyosaki
About selling BTC in bulk for cash:
* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?
* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?
* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?
* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?
Whom you know matters. A reliable business relationship can be a difficult thing to achieve, especially when there's no competition.
Bitcoin does not incur oversight. This can be very valuable for transfers at high volumes within an organization, businesses that pursue aggressive tax minimization strategies, and a number of other situations. Flow can be more important than stock. I could see a lot of demand for this from traditional financial firms, particularly in the foreign exchange area. With increasing scrutiny, services are fleeing the western system in droves wherever possible.
Some supply may be sourced from Gox and existing clients. What other service does Pirate run that could provide a major supply of BTC?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1006265
Basically, he gives up part of his yield in exchange for reduced risk.
Basically, he gives up part of his yield in exchange for reduced risk.
Yeees, and my post shows just what a horribly stupid deal it is to do that.
Dude, did you even read the post before quoting it, or just do something to push it to the back? I just showed that amortization time for using one's own money is tiny, and that Pirateat40 easily gets enough money from the current scheme to just take over. It is absolutely nonsensical for him to still be using other peoples' money.
Going back to the subject, which is the new interest rates, from what I see the PPT re-sellers are announcing the their interest rate is not going to change after August the 1st.
Which is great and basically means that Pirate does not lower the rates with the recent change, but only pushes away small accounts.
Which is great and basically means that Pirate does not lower the rates with the recent change, but only pushes away small accounts.
Yeah but at least with one bond (TYGRR.BOND-P) it's unclear whether additional bonds will be issued after 8/1/12.
I'm amazed at how much defense there is when people don't even know what he's doing! I had a small amount in the FOO.PPPT bond on GLBSE which I withdrew before the most recent ponzi allegations. Also, the currency risk argument for legitimacy is total BS. There's currency risk both ways: BTC -> USD and USD -> BTC. Neither is a safe haven for a business that operates cross-currency.
For those who are apologists: why not post transactions, what you've sent and what you've received? That's an easy way to at least provide a baseline for verification.
I'm not strictly in the 'BTCST is a ponzi' camp, but it does look like that's the most viable possibility. If it does end legitimately (pirate has always been clear that he expects it to end at some point), I can't wait to find out what the hell he's been doing. A potential possibility is pegging the market and profiting from volatility, but it seems like his risk is a lot higher by assuring a 1.07 weekly return and on-demand withdrawals. Also, without actual transactions to work from, testing this hypothesis is hard. At least one individual mentioned they had tracked their coins and they didn't go to Gox. How he could tell what was and was not a Gox address I'm not sure, but if he was correct, it's even more likely that BTCST is a ponzi.
-bgc
For those who are apologists: why not post transactions, what you've sent and what you've received? That's an easy way to at least provide a baseline for verification.
I'm not strictly in the 'BTCST is a ponzi' camp, but it does look like that's the most viable possibility. If it does end legitimately (pirate has always been clear that he expects it to end at some point), I can't wait to find out what the hell he's been doing. A potential possibility is pegging the market and profiting from volatility, but it seems like his risk is a lot higher by assuring a 1.07 weekly return and on-demand withdrawals. Also, without actual transactions to work from, testing this hypothesis is hard. At least one individual mentioned they had tracked their coins and they didn't go to Gox. How he could tell what was and was not a Gox address I'm not sure, but if he was correct, it's even more likely that BTCST is a ponzi.
-bgc
Going back to the subject, which is the new interest rates, from what I see the PPT re-sellers are announcing that their interest rate is not going to change after August the 1st.
Which is great and basically means that Pirate does not lower the rates with the recent change, but only pushes away small accounts.
Which is great and basically means that Pirate does not lower the rates with the recent change, but only pushes away small accounts.
I already rebutted this above. You should scroll up.
I don't see it. And if you can show a simple amortization time calculation wrong, go ahead. Maybe I mistyped a number somewhere, not like that changes anything.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1006265
Basically, he gives up part of his yield in exchange for reduced risk.
I already rebutted this above. You should scroll up.
I don't see it. And if you can show a simple amortization time calculation wrong, go ahead. Maybe I mistyped a number somewhere, not like that changes anything.
Already discussed and defended ad nauseum: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.916286
would you rather make 10.65% a week but have some risk of losing your capital if bitcoin fails OR would rather make only 4.67% a week using someone else's capital and have pretty much no risk whatsoever. I think pirate would be stupid to risk his own money.
Do you really want me to do that math for you?
Okay. Whatever. Difference in yields there is 5.98%. Amortization time of risking own money: 12 weeks. However, Pirateat40 pays 7%, so it's shorter even! Bitcoin has survived trading for decent amounts for over a year now, so the decision to use other people's money is a massive loss by now. In fact, a factor 5.7 using these understated client yields.
This is a joke. Next argument, please?
I already rebutted this above. You should scroll up.
Already discussed and defended ad nauseum: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.916286
would you rather make 10.65% a week but have some risk of losing your capital if bitcoin fails OR would rather make only 4.67% a week using someone else's capital and have pretty much no risk whatsoever. I think pirate would be stupid to risk his own money.
Do you really want me to do that math for you?
Okay. Whatever. Difference in yields there is 5.98%. Amortization time of risking own money: 12 weeks. However, Pirateat40 pays 7%, so it's shorter even! Bitcoin has survived trading for decent amounts for over a year now, so the decision to use other people's money is a massive loss for him already. In fact, a factor 5.7 using these understated client yields.
Plus, just investing the earnings from the current scheme now and kicking people out would not risk a bitcent of his starting capital!
This is a joke. Next argument, please?
About selling BTC in bulk for cash:
* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?
* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?
* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?
* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?
Well, we know he's not getting money from MtGox. Nobody is lulz! Unless he's the reason why it takes forever to get money out.
Concerning shorting:
If my bet is him running off with the money, how would I sign and especially enforce a contract with him?! Also this would probably lock up quite some funds of both shorters and people long on him (who would likely rather have their coins "working" at BTCS&T, as the returns there would be even better than going long for a 100% return after a few months).
Oh, and again:
All(!) his transactions are public! This is Bitcoin, not some hidden network of bank to bank transfers! Have some balls, post transactions to pirate's addresses and if he made a mistake somewhere combining lots of his accounts, it will come out - then you could clearly see how much money is invested with him, where it goes etc.
About selling BTC in bulk for cash:
* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?
* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?
If my bet is him running off with the money, how would I sign and especially enforce a contract with him?! Also this would probably lock up quite some funds of both shorters and people long on him (who would likely rather have their coins "working" at BTCS&T, as the returns there would be even better than going long for a 100% return after a few months).
Oh, and again:
All(!) his transactions are public! This is Bitcoin, not some hidden network of bank to bank transfers! Have some balls, post transactions to pirate's addresses and if he made a mistake somewhere combining lots of his accounts, it will come out - then you could clearly see how much money is invested with him, where it goes etc.
About selling BTC in bulk for cash:
* Why is there so high demand for BUYING BTC from pirate alone and not some other people here too?
* Where does pirate get back his BTC for the USD he got? MtGox? The ppl. he sold BTC to at a price difference?
Brunic:
No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.
Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.
In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.
No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.
Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.
In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.
Boom! I'd like to see ponzi "investor" apologist try and defend against this one.. Why does pirate still share his profits? Charity?
Interesting, no takers so far.
Already discussed and defended ad nauseum: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.916286
Furthermore, the tiered system of higher interest rates for higher deposits. The explanation given for this was that small accounts are a hassle, but then it makes no sense to change to a new system where people can create as many accounts as they want without referral (although with lower interest). It also makes no sense that the interest rates remain 7% at the top end of the new tier, which probably will require tons of BTC deposits (big incentive not to withdraw), turning it into a sort of pyramid scheme where the "Trust" accounts have to refer new people to grow their interest rate.
Sure everyone can make new accounts, but why would you make a new account for 3.9% when you could just go under a trust account and get a better rate? I think you'll see very few new accounts actually being made on their own.
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