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Topic: Bitcoin: The Quants Dream. - page 4. (Read 5338 times)

newbie
Activity: 8
Merit: 0
September 18, 2011, 04:59:51 PM
#2
Bitcoins have value. They are a currency (because people are willing to trade goods/services for them) that provide unique, valuable features:

- they are a way to instantly send money across the world with very low fees <- this is valuable
- they are decentralized; no authority can freeze or seize your assets <- this is valuable
- they are pseudo-anonymous; contrary to traditional financial systems <- this is valuable

You can't argue against the above. These features alone give them at least some value... and I would argue a LOT of value.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
September 18, 2011, 02:26:47 PM
#1
List of things required for a true 'quant' currency:

1) No relationship to anything in the real world either physically or economically.
2) Inner workings can only be understood by programmer types or crypto-geeks
3) You can trade it over computers and never have to integrate into society or meet people.
4) Can be traded at super high frequency by computer programmes.
5) Entire currency can be understood in purely mathematical and statistical terms.
6) Currency can be created by solving mathematical equations quickly.

What Bitcoin appears to be is a giant 'quant fund' exercise which is bound to crash as it has no fundamental value in the long run.

Bitcoin is totally doomed as the majority of those involved have no idea about really basic economics or why currencies exist.

I will predict the future of Bitcoin:

It will turn into a 'bot-war' of geeks trying to perform ultra-fast quant computer trading and eventually the market will dry out as real traders become bored with it as its volatility reaches absurd levels. The entire concept of trade is exchange of different physical commodities - it is why people used to risk sailing half way around the world to bring back goods.

Bitcoin is a bit like Pogs as in they are very exciting to own and trade when your 10 years old - then you grow up and realise they are pointless and have no value.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pogs

Duration until Bitcoin tanks: About 3 months.

Ignore at your own peril.

  
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